Commodity index: on January 28, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 88.11, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 17.75% compared with the highest point 107.13 in the cycle (May 8, 2019), and increased by 6.30% compared with the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: period refers to from April 1, 2019 to now)

Market trend: data show that in January 2021, water treatment plants in main production areas of Henan resumed production one after another, and the output of polyacrylamide increased, but the market demand did not change much, leading to a slight decline in the market of polyacrylamide. According to local manufacturers, because environmental protection requirements are still strict, some manufacturers resume production, some still stop production, production increase is limited, some manufacturers do not have much inventory, and some downstream orders still need to be scheduled. Business Club (100) ppi.com ）Monitoring data showed that the domestic market of polyacrylamide (cationic, molecular weight 12 million, ionicity 10-30) declined slightly on January 1, with the mainstream quotation of 14560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 14420 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a slight decline of about 1%; among them, the highest price of 14560 yuan / ton, the lowest price of 14360 yuan / ton, and the maximum amplitude of 1.37%.

Industry situation: the market of upstream raw material acrylonitrile first went down and then went up, and then went back slightly; in terms of supply, domestic supply decreased, domestic acrylonitrile export increased significantly, and the domestic market was slightly tight towards the end of the month: the mainstream quotation at the beginning of the month was about 12150 yuan / ton, which went down to 11500 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, rebounded to 12000 yuan / ton in the last week, and then went back to 11700-11800 yuan / ton again . Main plant developments: Shandong Haijiang’s 130 kt / a acrylonitrile plant is in continuous shutdown; on January 10, Anqing Petrochemical’s 80 kt / a acrylonitrile plant was shut down for maintenance due to failure, and it was restarted on January 28; Formosa Plastics stopped for maintenance for about four weeks from January 8; petkim stopped in July 2020 and is expected to resume in February 2021.

Downstream demand: in winter, the downstream demand is relatively stable. However, because the polyacrylamide manufacturers in the main production areas only partially resumed production at the beginning of this month, the supply first increased relatively. Later, due to the influence of environmental protection requirements, some of the resumed manufacturers stopped production again, and the supply tension of the whole market is more obvious than that in the earlier stage. Therefore, the biggest driving factor of price change this month is the influence of the supply side and the influence of downstream demand not big.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the production of the manufacturers in the main production areas in the heating season will continue to be limited by environmental protection, and the tightening of the supply side is conducive to the market; however, near the Spring Festival, the demand for water treatment projects is becoming increasingly weak, and the market is bad; the price of raw material acrylonitrile is slightly increased due to the tightening of supply at the end of the month, and several manufacturers stop production, which affects the output and increases the export volume, as the impact of the cost side In terms of influencing factors, it will boost the future market of polyacrylamide to a certain extent, but after all, during the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is not much, and manufacturers generally shut down during the holidays. Considering the current factors, it is expected that the polyacrylamide market will be stable.