Commodity: SC crude oil

Closing price: 439.3 yuan / ton

Analysis: crude oil fell sharply on Thursday, with the main contract 08 closing at 439.3 yuan / ton, down 3.89%. Overnight crude oil fell significantly, with WTI crude oil down more than 3% and Brent crude oil down nearly 2%. Affected by this, SC crude oil in the inner wall fell rapidly. At the macro level, the market is wary of the risk aversion of risk assets such as crude oil caused by the Fed’s interest rate increase. Meanwhile, according to media reports, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have reached a compromise on production increase policy, and OPEC will launch an agreement on production increase to boost supply, warming the expectation of supply increase; In addition, relevant data show that the demand for gasoline in the United States has fallen sharply. The combination of many bad news dragged down oil prices.

Forecast: the business community believes that there are many risk factors in the oil market in the near future, which aggravates the shock. On the one hand, the market generally pays attention to whether the production restriction policies of OPEC oil producing countries can be implemented consistently; In addition, the epidemic situation is one after another, and the trend is still unclear. Crude oil future trend brings more uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see carefully.

The domestic butadiene market maintained an upward trend, Sinopec’s price increased several times, and middlemen’s offer was firm. Affected by the tight supply, the market momentum continued. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of July 14, the domestic butadiene market price was 10498 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 28.61% and a year-on-year increase of 202.27%. In terms of price, the delivery price in central Shandong is about 12500-12600 yuan / ton; East China’s self delivery price is about 12300-12400 yuan / ton.

The short-term supply side of butadiene market is difficult to be significantly supplemented, supporting the strong market atmosphere; Although some downstream devices have parking plans, the drag effect of demand side is limited under the support of supply side.

In terms of enterprises, Liaoyang Petrochemical’s 30000 T / a butadiene plant has been in stable operation, and the export of this node has been suspended. The 100000 t / a butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit of Jiangsu sipang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has been in stable operation, with a small amount of products exported, and the listed price has been increased by 1200 yuan / T to 12000 yuan / T. Liaotong chemical’s 120000 T / a butadiene plant is in normal operation, and the main source of goods is downstream pipeline transportation, and there is no online export of goods.

External price: as of July 13, the external price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at US $1395-1405 / T; CFR China closed at US $1345-1355 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1910-1920 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 1495-1505 euros / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Korea 1395-1405 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Asia CFR China 1345-1355 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Europe FOB Rotterdam 1910-1920 USD / T 0 USD / ton

Europe FD northwest Europe 1495-1505 euro / ton 0 euro / ton

The shortage of domestic circulating butadiene has not been alleviated, and business expectations are still strong. Business analysts expect the market to rise slightly.

In the second week of July, the domestic magnesium market showed a weak consolidation trend. At the beginning of the week, affected by the fermentation of environmental protection policy news, the price of the industry had a small rebound. On Monday, the market quotation of mainstream areas was 19500 yuan / ton. However, in the later stage, the market price was increased, and the downstream customers did not follow up obviously, resulting in limited price rise and steady price reduction. On Friday, the price fell back to 19100 yuan / ton. As of July 12, the specific price ranges of each region are as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 19500-19600 yuan / ton; In Ningxia, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 19500-19600 yuan / ton; In Taiyuan area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 19600-19700 yuan / ton; In Wenxi area, the ex factory cash including tax is 19700-19800 yuan / ton.

Market analysis

Cost side: Recently, the price of coal market is gradually clear, affected by the price protection policy, the price of coal is gradually callback, the support of cost side is weakened, and the price of magnesium is falling; Ferrosilicon market according to relevant news reports, Zhongwei area is limited, and Fugu area is forced to reduce production due to insufficient power supply.

Supply and demand side: the downstream customers are not enthusiastic in purchasing, most of them hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the inventory of magnesium on the supply side is relatively stable. Some businesses are optimistic about the future price due to the news of LAN Tan upgrading and transformation, and they are reluctant to sell, so there is little pressure on shipping.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that in the short term or will maintain a weak stable situation, the demand side is relatively flat, superimposed coal prices fall, so the price upward lack of support.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on July 9 was 3993.33 yuan / ton, up 6.49% from the beginning of the week, 10.93% from the beginning of the month, and 62.77% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic liquefied natural gas market recovered, and the price continued to push up, with an increase of more than 6% in the week and a year-on-year increase of more than 60%. During the week, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hebei, Shandong and other places increased in a large area, and the price was mostly in the range of 3750-4600 yuan / ton. Many places had broken the 4000 yuan / ton mark, and LNG was no longer cheap. At the beginning of the week, with the increase of demand after July 1, domestic liquid prices had been in the mood of rising, but the fluctuation was limited, and most of them were small adjustments. In the middle and late part of the week, the price increase was more obvious. At present, the price of imported gas was high. Driven by this, domestic liquid plants actively followed the rise. At the same time, due to cost considerations, the price support mood of liquid plants was strong. At present, with the increase of vehicle and industrial demand, as well as the increase of temperature and power plant consumption, the support of demand side is gradually improving. At the same time, there are some advantages in the maintenance of some liquid plants and the supply side, as well as the rise of feed gas price in July, which jointly boost the domestic liquid price.

At present, Inner Mongolia is 3600-3900 yuan / ton, Shaanxi is 4000-4200 yuan / ton, Shanxi is 3900-4250 yuan / ton, Ningxia is 3950-4000 yuan / ton, Henan is 4230-4450 yuan / ton, Hebei is 4200-4450 yuan / ton, Sichuan is 4000-4200 yuan / ton, the price of gas is about 4080-5000 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid has been increased in different degrees.

region Specifications July 9th July 1st Up and down

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 3600-3900 3450-3800 + 150/+100

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4000-4200 3670-3800 + 230/+400

Shanxi liquified natural gas 3900-4250 3600-3800 + 300/+450

Ningxia liquified natural gas 3950-4000 3780-3850 + 170/+150

Henan Province liquified natural gas 4230-4450 3670-3850 + 560/+600

Hebei liquified natural gas 4200-4450 3750-3950 + 450/+500

Sichuan liquified natural gas 4000-4200 3500-3900 + 500/+300

Downstream products are mixed:

Methanol. On July 8, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong Province was lowered. The mainstream transaction of methanol market in central Shandong Province was 2320-2340 yuan / ton, which was sent to spot exchange. The outlook was slightly different. The transaction price of methanol market in central and Northern Shandong Province is 2300-2320 yuan / ton, which is sent to cash exchange. The overall atmosphere is general. In the methanol market in southern Shandong Province, the negotiation price dropped by 50 yuan / ton to 2390-2400 yuan / ton in cash. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 2380-2400 yuan / ton and sent them to cash exchange. The logistics goods offer price is not available for the time being. Individual downstream inquiry, negotiation atmosphere is general.

Liquid ammonia, 8, the domestic liquid ammonia market stable, Shandong Province, liquid ammonia prices little change, today the region’s moderate amount of ammonia, normal shipping enterprises, the current normal inventory, today’s Shandong factory quotation is generally stable. At present, the mainstream price in this area is 4300-4400 yuan / ton. At present, the liquid ammonia discharged by the manufacturers in this area is moderate, and the price is expected to be firm in the near future.

Urea. On July 8, the urea market in Shandong was temporarily stable. The price of upstream coal rose sharply recently, and the cost support was strengthened. From the aspect of demand, the demand of agriculture in different areas has been cooling down, and the demand of agriculture has been decreasing; However, the price of compound fertilizer in the lower reaches has risen, and the construction of rubber sheet factories and melamine enterprises is acceptable, and most of them are used as soon as they are mined. In terms of supply, the daily output of urea plants is still lower than that of the same period last year, and the supply side is tight. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory are also kept at a low position. Affected by the shortage of coal, some areas begin to reduce production. On the whole, urea cost support is strengthened, downstream demand is stable, and urea supply is tight.

3、 Future forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency believe that: Recently, the demand has increased, and some liquid plants have been overhauled. The shipping atmosphere of the manufacturers is good. At the same time, the rising price of the imported gas has boosted the domestic rising atmosphere. In the short term, the domestic liquefied natural gas market may continue to rise, but in the off-season, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and the liquid price rise in the future market may narrow and gradually stabilize.

According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10020 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 10.9%.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid was temporarily stable this week. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid in various regions has been maintained at 9500-9700 yuan / ton. The quotations of some manufacturers are higher than the market price. The actual transaction market on the floor is weak. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is mainly stable. The recent domestic supply of hydrofluoric acid is supportive, and the price trend on the floor is temporarily stable.

Domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, part of the hydrofluoric acid plants on the site operate stably, and the price of upstream raw materials of hydrofluoric acid changes little. So far, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 9500-9700 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9400-9700 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable, and the manufacturers reflect that the recent delivery situation is normal, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is relatively stable.

The market price trend of fluorite, the raw material of hydrofluoric acid, was temporarily stable. By the end of the week, the domestic price of fluorite was 2638.89 yuan / ton. This week, the price trend was stable. In the near future, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal, and the domestic fluorite plant started relatively normally. However, in the near future, the environmental protection supervision was strict, and the affected plants stopped in some areas, This week, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations is 2400-2600 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite in the market is the cost support of hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is mainly affected by the stable trend.

The market trend of domestic refrigerants has dropped slightly. Recently, the sales situation of automobile industry is normal. The market of refrigerants is temporarily stable. The demand is mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerants industry remains stable. The market of various types of refrigerants has little change. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship and the sales pressure is large. The price of hydrofluoric acid, the raw material, has declined slightly and lost some cost support, The export volume of refrigerants changed little, the output of downstream air conditioners was low, the demand was scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continued, and the price of refrigerants remained stable temporarily. On the whole, negative factors dominate the refrigerant market, and the prices of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform are lower, which makes the refrigerant industry under pressure. At present, the load of R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, the market price trend is stable, but the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see mood, the delivery situation of goods holders is normal, some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion, and the mainstream of on-site negotiation is 16000-17500 yuan / ton. Domestic R134a manufacturers are operating under low load, and the price trend of R134a is declining. However, at present, purchasing on demand is the main trend, downstream enterprises are not high, and traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market quotation of R134a is mostly in the range of 20000-23000 yuan / ton, but the transaction atmosphere is general, the market trend of downstream refrigerants is slightly declining, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Judging from the industrial chain diagram, the price trend of fluorine chemical industry is not good, the price of raw material fluorite has little change, and the price trend of downstream refrigerant products has come down. However, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant has been running stably recently, the spot supply on the floor is normal, and the downstream demand has little change. Chen Ling, an hydrofluoric acid analyst in the business community, thinks that the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market may be stable temporarily.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of July 8, the factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 16433 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 367 yuan / ton, or 2.28% compared with the price on July 1.

According to the monitoring data of business society, the average factory price reference of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 6666 yuan / ton, and the average price is up 133 yuan / T, up 2.04% compared with that of july6,2021 (reference price of 6533 yuan / ton). Compared with the price of july1,2021 (reference price of 6866 yuan / ton), the average price is down 200 yuan / ton, down 2.91%.

From the data monitoring chart of business society, it can be seen that from the late June, the trend of domestic propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate has been contrary to that of raw material epichlorohydrin. In late June, the raw material epichlorohydrin market was reversed, while the prices of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate both declined at the end of the month, and the overall price was weak. In early July, the market of propylene glycol and dimethyl carbonate kept in line with each other, and continued to maintain weak operation. Until July and August, propylene glycol led to a rebound in the market of dimethyl carbonate.

In terms of propylene glycol, since July 6, the domestic propylene glycol market has been operating at a high level for three consecutive days. At present, the in-house export has performed well. Therefore, the propylene glycol plant has low inventory, low supply pressure and obvious intention of price fixing. In terms of demand, downstream just need to purchase primarily, recently the market has been increasing, and the stock is relatively positive.

In terms of dimethyl carbonate, the market of dimethyl carbonate has been rising in recent two days, and the high-end quotation has risen to 7100 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is mainly maintained, the overall trading climate is general, and there is no obvious pressure on the supply side.

In the upstream of propylene oxide, in early June, the market of propylene oxide was significantly lower than that in the late June. After falling to a low point, the market of propylene oxide began to rise steadily in late June. In July, the price of propylene oxide continued to rise steadily. On July 7, the 240000t po/mtbe unit of Wanhua chemical epichlorohydrin was operated stably, with the customers of self-use and supply contract as the main part. The latest ex factory quotation was RMB 16800 / T, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated.

Post market forecast

In terms of propylene glycol, at present, propylene glycol inventory is low, and under the support of tight supply, it is expected that the market will mainly be strong operation in the short term. In terms of dimethyl carbonate, at present, there is no obvious pressure on the supply side of dimethyl carbonate, downstream demand continues, just need to purchase, and the trading atmosphere in the yard is general. It is expected that in the short term, the market of dimethyl carbonate will be adjusted mainly in a narrow range.

Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (July 7): 12590 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 12590 yuan / ton on the 7th, up 0.72% from the previous day. Since July, affected by the rising price of crude oil and butadiene and the rising cost, Shunding manufacturers have been increasing, and business offers have been rising. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of July 7, the ex factory price of Qilu Shunding of Sinopec North China sales branch was 12500 yuan / ton; In addition, the price of natural rubber has been rising steadily since July, forming support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of July 7, the price of natural rubber was 13050 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: there is a certain support for the rise of raw materials, but the demand is slightly general. It is expected that the butadiene rubber market will be stable in the short term.

In June, the domestic propane Market as a whole showed a fluctuating upward trend, which was first low and then high in the month, and rose significantly in the second half of the month. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of propane in Shandong was 4305.75 yuan / ton on June 1 and 4458.25 yuan / ton on June 30, with an increase of 3.54% in June, up 52.29% compared with the same period last year.

In June, with the arrival of the traditional off-season, the overall trend of propane market was weak. At the beginning of June, with the introduction of CP price in June, the price of propane butane increased significantly. The high import cost supported the upstream mentality, and the price increased slightly. However, due to the lack of favorable support and weak terminal demand in the later period, the price rise did not continue and the overall price fell. On September 9, propane Market returned to the upward route again within the month, and the international crude oil push up brought obvious support to the market. The northern market was benefited by this, the atmosphere of downstream market entry was improved, the manufacturer’s shipment was improved, the inventory was released, and the price was stable and upward. The transaction atmosphere of southern market is flat, and most of them are stable in shipment.

In the second half of the month, the positive factors increased, the propane market rose significantly, the international crude oil market continued to rise, and the news was positive. In addition, there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream after the festival, and the high cost of imported gas also brought obvious support to the market. Under multiple positive factors, the manufacturers’ mentality was strong, and the main trend was to adjust the price.

Saudi Aramco CP announced in July that propane and butane all rose. Propane was 620 US dollars / ton, up 90 US dollars / ton from last month; Butane is 620 US dollars / ton, up 95 US dollars / ton from last month.

At the end of July, the price of CP was released, and the price of propane and butane rose sharply. The high import cost brought obvious support to the domestic market. In addition, the international crude oil market was dominated by market favorable factors, and the price continued to rise. However, due to the influence of seasonal factors, the current propane market demand is weak, which brings a certain constraint to the rising market. It is expected that the propane market will fluctuate in July.

1、 Price trend

Toluene prices fell first and then rose this week, with prices chopping in narrow ranges, according to data from the business agency’s bulk list. On June 27, the price of toluene was 5781 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (July 4) was 5800.2 yuan / ton, up 19.2 yuan / ton, or 0.33% from last week; It was 66.67% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil price maintained high, support better, East China market price is on the wait and see; South China has been on a small increase in price due to the reduction of supply. However, the overall demand of toluene market remains weak, and the price remains weak due to the limited automobile transportation in the north area, the market transaction is reduced and the price remains weak. On the external market, as of July 2, the price of imported toluene in South Korea was US $743 / T, up $10 / T, or 1.36% on June 25, on June 25.

In terms of crude oil, the market is optimistic about the recovery of crude oil demand. U.S. crude oil inventories continue to decline. OPEC + may start to increase production in August, but no agreement has been reached on the latest policy. International oil prices are mixed. On June 25, Brent fell 0.01% to a new $0.01/barrel; WTI rose $1.11 per barrel, or 1.5%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI price in East China this week remained stable, with domestic products of 13866.67 yuan / ton, up 31.23% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price rose sharply this week, with the price of 7100 yuan / ton, up 9.23% from last week, up 47.92% year on year. As of July 2, closing prices in Asia were $903-905 / T FOB Korea and $921-923 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, recovery of industrial chain, economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and related progress of financial stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The price support of p-toluene in crude oil remains; Downstream PX market is good, or the market of toluene has a certain drive. In general, the recovery of the northern auto transport market for toluene has a certain support, and the price is likely to rise. We will continue to pay attention to the influence of crude oil, external market trend, maintenance and maintenance of toluene plant, inventory of toluene port and downstream demand (gasoline blending market) on toluene price.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business association, the price of soda ash went up in June. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was about 1770 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was about 1882 yuan / ton, up 6.33%, 48.58% over the same period last year. On July 1, the commodity index of light soda ash was 96.51, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 18.11% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 52.83% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, domestic soda is relatively strong, and the price of downstream glass is strong. However, the overall demand performance in the near future is acceptable, and the price of soda ash is expected to be strong. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the soda ash in North China operates in a narrow range. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the demand for soda ash from downstream glass is fair. Generally speaking, the short-term price of soda ash is mainly consolidated. The main market price of light soda ash is about 1700-1850 yuan / ton, and the demand of downstream glass for soda ash is acceptable. Generally speaking, the price of short-term soda ash is mainly consolidated.

Upstream and demand: the trading atmosphere of crude salt market this month is acceptable, but the overall market is mainly stable and small dynamic. It is expected that the raw salt finishing market will run mainly in the later period. The price of domestic glass is strong, mainly running. On the whole, there is no pressure on the manufacturers’ inventory for the time being, the price fixing operation is the main, the downstream is more wait-and-see, the procurement is more cautious, and the traders are more flexible. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate in a narrow range in the future.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 4 kinds of commodities in the price rise and fall list of chlor alkali industry in June 2021, 1 kind of commodity in decline and 0 kind of commodity in rise and fall. The main commodities that rose were calcium carbide (10.40%), light soda (6.33%) and caustic soda (3.50%); The main commodities falling were PVC (- 1.64%). The average rise and fall this month was 4.31%.

Business analysts believe that: domestic soda market trading atmosphere is relatively stable, manufacturers actively shipping. The price of downstream glass is strong, the demand for soda is still good, and the price of soda rises. In general, soda late multi consolidation operation market, specific to see the downstream market demand.