1、 Price trend

Toluene prices fell first and then rose this week, with prices chopping in narrow ranges, according to data from the business agency’s bulk list. On June 27, the price of toluene was 5781 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (July 4) was 5800.2 yuan / ton, up 19.2 yuan / ton, or 0.33% from last week; It was 66.67% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil price maintained high, support better, East China market price is on the wait and see; South China has been on a small increase in price due to the reduction of supply. However, the overall demand of toluene market remains weak, and the price remains weak due to the limited automobile transportation in the north area, the market transaction is reduced and the price remains weak. On the external market, as of July 2, the price of imported toluene in South Korea was US $743 / T, up $10 / T, or 1.36% on June 25, on June 25.

In terms of crude oil, the market is optimistic about the recovery of crude oil demand. U.S. crude oil inventories continue to decline. OPEC + may start to increase production in August, but no agreement has been reached on the latest policy. International oil prices are mixed. On June 25, Brent fell 0.01% to a new $0.01/barrel; WTI rose $1.11 per barrel, or 1.5%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI price in East China this week remained stable, with domestic products of 13866.67 yuan / ton, up 31.23% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price rose sharply this week, with the price of 7100 yuan / ton, up 9.23% from last week, up 47.92% year on year. As of July 2, closing prices in Asia were $903-905 / T FOB Korea and $921-923 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, recovery of industrial chain, economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and related progress of financial stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The price support of p-toluene in crude oil remains; Downstream PX market is good, or the market of toluene has a certain drive. In general, the recovery of the northern auto transport market for toluene has a certain support, and the price is likely to rise. We will continue to pay attention to the influence of crude oil, external market trend, maintenance and maintenance of toluene plant, inventory of toluene port and downstream demand (gasoline blending market) on toluene price.