Trade name: chloroform

Latest price (September 14): 2925 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of chloroform in Shandong was 3350 yuan / ton on the 14th, up 1.52% from the previous day. On the one hand, the domestic and foreign trade sales volume in the domestic refrigerant market is stable, and the purchase of chloroform just needs support; On the other hand, the overall start-up of domestic methane chloride units decreased, the market supply changed from loose to tight, coupled with the rising price of raw methanol and the support of cost, trichloromethane rose slightly in the short term.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the cost side is higher and the demand side is just needed. It is expected that the market price of chloroform will be strong in the short term. In the later stage, if the downstream goods preparation starts, the price of chloroform will continue to rise.

1、 Price data

As of September 13, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 6930.75 yuan / ton, up 3.51% from 6690.75 yuan / ton on September 5. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 6900-7100 yuan / ton.

As of September 13, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 6740.00 yuan / ton, up 3.57% from 6507.50 yuan / ton on September 5. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 6700-6900 yuan / ton.

On September 13, the naphtha commodity index was 85.54, up 3.52 points from yesterday, down 16.64% from the highest point of 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 102.51% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha decreased sharply at the beginning of the week, and the price rose sharply at the weekend. Affected by environmental protection inspection, the price of refineries rose rapidly and the market was bullish.

Upstream: the international oil price fluctuated downward, and the market mainly focused on the recovery time of production capacity affected in the Gulf of Mexico after the hurricane, poor employment data in the United States, downward stock market and the spread of delta virus. The main tone of the market is bearish oil market.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene fell this week. The price of toluene was 5600.20 yuan / ton on September 12 and 5620.20 yuan / ton on September 6, down 0.36%. The price of mixed xylene remained stable this week. As of September 12, the price of mixed xylene was 5710.00 yuan / ton. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, and the ex factory price of domestic PX was 7100 yuan / ton by the end of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 36th week of 2021 (9.6-9.10), including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were methanol (7.93%), dimethyl ether (7.42%) and coking coal (7.10%). There are four commodities with month on month decline, and the top three products are liquefied natural gas (- 2.31%), WTI crude oil (- 1.66%) and Brent crude oil (- 1.60%). The average rise and fall this week was 2.56%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that due to the recent international crude oil shock, the impact of environmental protection inspection and the positive orientation of refined oil, the prices of refineries rose rapidly over the weekend and the market was bullish. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future may continue to rise.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, taking the market offer in East China as an example, the offer in East China market was 6200 yuan / ton on September 1 and 6450 yuan / ton on September 10, with an increase of 4.03% in East China market. In the national market, the current negotiation space is 6350-6500 yuan / ton. From the situation of factories in East China, the factories increased by 200-300 yuan / ton during the week.

The atmosphere of replenishment and delivery in the terminal factory was significantly improved. There was some support from the on-site cargo holders, and the offer rose. Some manufacturers limited shipments, and there were contract reductions within the month. Gaoqiao Petrochemical suspended shipments from yesterday, and the short-term supply was slightly tight. The factory raised prices on the 9th.

From the perspective of supply, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone enterprises has maintained a stable trend. Except that Jilin Petrochemical has started unlimited export at 70%, the operating rates of CNOOC shell and Yangzhou Shiyou are low, and the operating rates of other enterprises are 95%. Most enterprises have been operating at full capacity. Last weekend, I heard that the phenol ketone unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical stopped in September, and Gaoqiao suspended shipment on the 9th.

From the perspective of business agency, after a wave of procurement, the market inquiry atmosphere of downstream terminal factories has slowed down, but there is no pressure on spot resources at present, and some factories ship in limited quantities. Business agency expects the acetone market to fluctuate next week.

The orthobenzene market was stable this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the listing price of orthobenzene Sinopec was stable this week. As of September 9, the listing price of orthobenzene Sinopec was 6400 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with that of last weekend, up 1.59% compared with the listing price of 6300 yuan / ton in August, and 45.45% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The adjacent benzene market is strong and stable for the time being.

The differences between upstream and downstream markets have decreased

According to the data detection of the business agency, the upstream and downstream markets of the adjacent benzene industrial chain continued to split this week, but the differences decreased. The price decline of the upstream mixed xylene slowed down, and the negative impact on the adjacent benzene Market weakened; The price rise of phthalic anhydride in the downstream decreased, the phthalic anhydride market warmed up, and the positive effect on the phthalic anhydride market weakened.

According to the data detection of business society, the price of mixed xylene in the upstream has stabilized after falling this week, the downward trend of raw material price of o-benzene has slowed down, and the cost of o-benzene has stabilized; The price of downstream phthalic anhydride rose again, but the rise slowed down, and the support of phthalic anhydride for the rise of o-benzene was weak. There are still differences between the upstream and downstream markets, but the differences are weakened, and the overall upward momentum of the adjacent benzene market is increased.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the differences between the upstream and downstream markets of the adjacent benzene industrial chain still exist this week, the prices of raw materials stabilize after falling, the prices of downstream phthalic anhydride rise continuously, and the adjacent benzene market is still bad and positive. Generally speaking, the differences between the upstream and downstream markets of the orthobenzene industrial chain are reduced, the driving force for the future rise of orthobenzene is increased, and the price of orthobenzene is expected to be strong and stable in the future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 8, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 14900.00 yuan / ton, the price of DMF stopped falling and rebounded, and the price of DMF manufacturers rose, up 2.23% compared with that at the beginning of this week.

The DMF market continues its upward trend, with no pressure on inventory and a positive negotiation atmosphere. The downstream just needs to purchase and follow-up atmosphere is strong. The mainstream price is about 15000 yuan / ton. The demand for foreign orders increases, the shipment of contract orders is smooth, and the increase of new orders is slow. The DMF market is relatively strong in the short term, the upstream methanol quotation is temporarily stable, and the mainstream price is about 2700 yuan / ton, Market prices in various regions are mostly stable.

DMF commodity index: on September 7, the DMF commodity index was 244.26, up 5.33 points from yesterday, down 3.25% from the highest point 252.46 in the cycle (2021-08-29), and up 263.43% from the lowest point 67.21 on February 21, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that: DMF continues the strong trend and prices rise. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

Domestic cobalt prices fell slightly in September

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic cobalt price fell after a slight rise in September, and the rise of the cobalt market was insufficient. On September 7, the cobalt price was 364333.34 yuan / ton, down from 375666.66 yuan / ton on September 6 of the previous trading day, and the cobalt price decreased by 0.35%; Compared with the cobalt price of 369000.00 yuan / ton on September 1, it increased by 1.45%.

International cobalt prices fall again

As can be seen from the data released by LME market, LME cobalt price rebounded slightly in September, the international cobalt market recovered, the cobalt price fell slightly on September 6, and the rising power support of cobalt market was insufficient. The support of international cobalt market was insufficient, and the domestic cobalt market fell.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business society, believes that the cobalt market recovered slightly in September, but with the recovery of port transportation in South Africa, the supply of cobalt market was normal, the rise of cobalt market was not supported enough, and the cobalt price fell slightly.

The main reason for the horizontal and high finishing in the domestic epoxy resin market is the cost support, especially from the bisphenol a market. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the offer of East China liquid resin market was 35100 yuan / ton on August 30, and that of East China liquid epoxy resin market was 35700 yuan / ton on September 6, with an increase of 1.71% within the week. At present, the offer of East China liquid epoxy resin market is 35500-36000 yuan / ton barrel ex factory price, and the offer of Huangshan solid resin market is more than 30500 yuan / ton, The market offer in Shandong is 30500 yuan / ton.

On the one hand, the prices of bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin are high. Bisphenol a market continues to consolidate at a high level. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market trend of bisphenol A in East China can be seen that the market tends to be high and stable this week. Up to now, the negotiation range in the national market is 28000-28200 yuan / ton. Under the situation of tight market supply, there are few market transactions, and the downstream just needs to supplement the high price bisphenol A.

The epichlorohydrin market continued to operate at a high level. According to the bulk list data of business society, as of September 3, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 14666.67 yuan / ton, up 1.85% compared with Monday’s price, 10.69% compared with August 3, and 11.96% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. The price of raw glycerol is high, the cost support is strong, some units are shut down for maintenance, the spot supply in the market is tight, which has a certain support for the market. The downstream just needs to follow up, the holders have a strong mentality of pushing up, and the price of epichlorohydrin rises.

At present, the downstream is relatively exclusive of high price goods, mainly consuming early orders, and there is an obvious shortage of new orders and insufficient actual orders.

From the perspective of business society, the cost is strongly supported. Under the continuous shortage of bisphenol a supply, it may continue to operate at a high level in the short term, epichlorohydrin is steadily promoted, and epoxy resin operates at a high level in the short term under the cost support; The cost pressure of resin enterprises is high. The business society expects that the epoxy resin market will be sorted and operated in a short period, and the offer of liquid epoxy resin in East China is 35500 yuan / ton barrel ex factory price.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market trend of PA6 was strong in early September, and the spot prices of various brands rose. As of September 3, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for Zhongtong was about 15633.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.08% over the average price at the beginning of the week and 44.61% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in the upstream, caprolactam fell at the cost end due to the decline of raw material pure benzene in the early stage. Recently, the price of pure benzene has improved, and some caprolactam production lines have been put into maintenance, reducing the supply and driving up the spot market. The downstream just needs to be purchased, and the demand is OK. Caprolactam market is expected to strengthen in a narrow range in the short term.

This week, the upstream caprolactam price continued to rise, the cost side support was positive, and the PA6 spot price followed up the raw material side. At present, the operating rate of PA6 industry is low and stable at more than 60%, which is due to the cost pressure of caprolactam price on PA6 in the early stage. So far, the profitability of polymerization plants is still poor, and most manufacturers have no profit or loss. In terms of end-users’ goods preparation, they have followed up stimulated by the recent market rise. On the whole, they still just need to take goods to maintain production. Merchants tried to increase their offer, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was still heavy.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that caprolactam rose to support the high cost side of PA6 in early September, which was beneficial to the rise of PA6 spot price. On the demand side, there are some follow-up goods preparation operations. At present, the fundamentals of PA6 market are relatively stable. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may be strong in the short term.

441# silicon price trend

Regional 441# silicon prices on the 2nd are as follows:

The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Huangpu port is 26700-27100 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Tianjin port is 26000-26200 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 26200-26600 yuan / ton; The price range of #441 metallic silicon in Sichuan is 26000-26500 yuan / ton; Fujian #441 metal trading range: 23700-24200 yuan / ton; The price range of Shanghai #441 metal silicon is 26800-27800 yuan / ton.

Market analysis

On the whole, the supply and demand of the domestic metal silicon market is unbalanced, and the power supply situation under the national energy consumption dual control policy is not optimistic, which even directly affects the operation of the metal silicon plant; The demand for downstream terminals has increased significantly, the operating rate of silicon wafer cells, modules and other links downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain has increased, and some silicon plants have no excess inventory.

Future forecast

Limited power problems, metal silicon prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, toluene fluctuated and fell to the end of the month after rising for about a week in August. On August 1, the price of toluene was 5810 yuan / ton; On August 31, the price was 5630 yuan / ton, down 3.1% from the beginning of the month; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 67.56%.

2、 Analysis and review

At the beginning of August, due to the reduction of export sales of petrochemical enterprises in South China, the market supply decreased, and the delay of arrival of domestic trade ships, the market price rose. With the arrival of the cargo, the tension eased, the price began to fall, and the market focus turned back to the demand side. Crude oil fell broadly in the middle of the month, market demand continued to be weak, market mentality was bearish, and prices continued to decline.

In terms of external market, as of August 31, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $753 / ton, down US $12 / ton or 1.57% from July 30.

In terms of crude oil, the trend of crude oil fluctuated and rose after falling in August. The market is still concerned about the impact of delta mutation virus on demand recovery. Compared with July 30, Brent fell by US $3.34/barrel, or 4.38%; WTI fell $4.45/barrel, or 7.37%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, TDI in East China fell in a wide range in August. At the end of the month, domestic goods executed 14333.33 yuan / ton, down 5.49% from the beginning of the month and 1.38% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX market, domestic PX stabilized after rising at the beginning of this month. The price at the end of the month was 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.82% over the beginning of the month and 58.7% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

On the raw material side, the trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty. The spread of delta virus still restricts the recovery of demand, and international oil prices are under short-term pressure. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

The demand side continues to be weak, and the short-term weak market is difficult to change; In September, the supply of toluene is expected to increase, the market outlook is bearish, and the weak trend of toluene is expected to continue. In September, pay attention to whether the downstream demand has improved. Pay attention to the changes in downstream demand and the impact of crude oil and external market trends on toluene prices.