1、 Price data

As of September 13, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 6930.75 yuan / ton, up 3.51% from 6690.75 yuan / ton on September 5. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 6900-7100 yuan / ton.

As of September 13, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 6740.00 yuan / ton, up 3.57% from 6507.50 yuan / ton on September 5. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 6700-6900 yuan / ton.

On September 13, the naphtha commodity index was 85.54, up 3.52 points from yesterday, down 16.64% from the highest point of 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 102.51% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha decreased sharply at the beginning of the week, and the price rose sharply at the weekend. Affected by environmental protection inspection, the price of refineries rose rapidly and the market was bullish.

Upstream: the international oil price fluctuated downward, and the market mainly focused on the recovery time of production capacity affected in the Gulf of Mexico after the hurricane, poor employment data in the United States, downward stock market and the spread of delta virus. The main tone of the market is bearish oil market.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene fell this week. The price of toluene was 5600.20 yuan / ton on September 12 and 5620.20 yuan / ton on September 6, down 0.36%. The price of mixed xylene remained stable this week. As of September 12, the price of mixed xylene was 5710.00 yuan / ton. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, and the ex factory price of domestic PX was 7100 yuan / ton by the end of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 36th week of 2021 (9.6-9.10), including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 31.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were methanol (7.93%), dimethyl ether (7.42%) and coking coal (7.10%). There are four commodities with month on month decline, and the top three products are liquefied natural gas (- 2.31%), WTI crude oil (- 1.66%) and Brent crude oil (- 1.60%). The average rise and fall this week was 2.56%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that due to the recent international crude oil shock, the impact of environmental protection inspection and the positive orientation of refined oil, the prices of refineries rose rapidly over the weekend and the market was bullish. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future may continue to rise.