On the 13th, the overall market of domestic liquid ammonia was stable and small. The prices in the main production areas of Shandong, Hebei, southwest and two lakes did not change much, with a rise and fall range of about 50 yuan. At present, the market supply and demand is balanced, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the manufacturer mainly supports the price stably.

This week, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong changed little. Today, the manufacturer’s quotation rose and fell, but the range was small. Within 50 yuan, the manufacturer shipped normally and the inventory pressure was relieved. At present, the market demand is acceptable, the dealer’s offer price has little change compared with that before the festival, the downstream procurement is normal, and the market inventory continues to go. Today, the mainstream price in the region is 4000-4200 yuan / ton. The market is expected to operate steadily in the near future.

The price of liquid ammonia in Hebei is stable, most manufacturers report stable, the market price changes little, and the dealers mainly report flat. At present, the market supply and demand is basically balanced, the manufacturers have a strong price mentality, the dealers’ offer is generally strong, the downstream demand rebounds slightly, and the market inventory continues to go. Today, the mainstream price in the region is 4150-4300 yuan / ton. The market is expected to fluctuate slightly in the near future.

Future forecast: recent price shocks, limited market benefits, basic balance of short-term supply and demand, mainly expected shocks.

1、 Price trend

 
Latest price (January 12): 8260 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business agency, the average domestic spot price of pvcc5 was 8260 yuan / ton on January 12, down 0.12% from the previous day. The enterprise quotation rose and fell. On the whole, the price remained in the range of 8000-8550 yuan / ton, and the price adjustment was little. At present, the price of raw materials has fallen slightly to around 4550 yuan / ton, the cost support has declined, the demand side is weak, the enterprise inventory has increased, and the market transaction is tepid.

PVC is expected to continue to maintain a weak trend.

On January 11, the rare earth index was 851 points, up 5 points from yesterday, down 14.90% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and up 214.02% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is rising. The price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series continues to rise. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 900000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is 1095000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 915000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 20000 yuan / ton to 1.02 million yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 1170000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal neodymium is 10000 yuan / ton to 1.24 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide increased by 30000 yuan / ton to 3 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 2.97 million yuan / ton, the price of metal dysprosium increased by 50000 yuan / ton to 3.8 million yuan / ton, the price of domestic light rare earth market continued to rise, the recent procurement was general, the price of dysprosium in domestic heavy rare earth market increased, the price of terbium increased slightly, the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and Myanmar banned export, It is expected that the domestic rare earth market price will continue to rise in the later period.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (January 10): 324.00 yuan / ton

On January 10, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price was temporarily stable, which was the same as the quotation on January 7, with a year-on-year increase of 85.14% compared with the same period last year. The upstream liquid chlorine market is general, the support for hydrochloric acid is insufficient, the downstream polyaluminium chloride and ammonium chloride market decline slightly, and the downstream purchase intention is weakened.

Recently, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate slightly, and the average quotation price is about 300 yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices rose first and then fell this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 69820 yuan / ton, down 0.01% from 69826.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 17.64% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, it has increased by 5 and decreased by 7 in the past three months, with a slight increase recently.

Macro aspect: the week before the new year’s Day festival, the problem of energy in Europe was fermented, the natural gas prices in many European countries continued to soar, the high electricity price caused concerns about supply interruption, and the rise of non-ferrous metals. The interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve landed and the short-term bad was exhausted.

Supply and demand: downstream power and production restrictions are over, mostly to digest early orders. In November, the operating rate of copper cable rose back to 85.55%, with a month on month increase of 5.10 percentage points, reaching a new high in the year, and the year-on-year decline also narrowed. It is expected that the operating rate of cable will decline again in December. The current copper inventory remains low, but the downstream consumption has entered the off-season, and the willingness to receive goods is not high. The TC of cspt in the first quarter was higher than that of changxiehe spot, and the domestic supply and demand tended to be loose. At present, the domestic inventory is expected to accumulate.

To sum up: low short-term inventory supports copper prices. However, it is difficult for copper prices to rise sharply in the off-season. It is expected that the short-term copper price is still mainly volatile.

Product Name: propylene glycol

Latest price (January 6): 16033 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on January 6, the domestic propylene glycol market moved downward slightly, and the average ex factory price of propylene glycol was 16033 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price was reduced by 100 yuan / ton, a single day decrease of 0.62%. On June 6, the trading atmosphere in the domestic propylene glycol market was cold, and the wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream was getting stronger. It was mainly purchased on demand, and the overall new single increment was limited.

Future forecast: at present, the support of propylene glycol market effect is weak. The propylene glycol data division of business society believes that in the short term, the propylene glycol market will mostly focus on weak operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of downstream demand.

According to the monitoring of business society, the market price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable. As of the 5th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7175 yuan / ton. The spot supply on the site was normal and the sales situation was acceptable.

The price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable, the delivery of phthalic anhydride market is normal, the recent downstream demand changes little, the price trend of upstream orthobenzene rises, the plasticizer market rises, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable. There is little change in the operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers. The operation rate of phthalic anhydride on the site is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market price trend is rising, the downstream plasticizer industry is improving, and the actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is mainly rising, and the high-end transactions in the venue are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 7100-7300 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 6900-7000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 7100-7300 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The plasticizer market has improved recently, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly in the later stage.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 13800 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of caprolactam was stable on January 4, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. Today, the trend of domestic pure benzene is strong. The price of domestic pure benzene is 7250-7400 yuan / ton. At present, caprolactam cost support is good, and the confidence in the field has increased greatly. Sinopec quoted 14200 yuan / ton for liquid caprolactam.

Future forecast: the price of caprolactam will rise strongly in the short term.

DBP prices fell in December

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of December 31, the DBP price was 9200 yuan / ton, down 5.96% from the DBP price of 9783.33 yuan / ton on December 1; The price rise of raw materials and the preparation of goods in advance before the festival led to a short rise in DBP price, which then fell rapidly. Overall, DBP fell in shock and DBP market fell in December.

N-butanol surged in December

According to the price monitoring of business society, n-butanol first rose and then fell in December. On December 31, the price of n-butanol was 8233.33 yuan / ton, down 7.84% from 8933.33 yuan / ton on December 1; Compared with 7500 yuan / ton on December 13, it increased by 9.78%. In the middle and late ten days, the price of n-butanol increased significantly, the price of raw materials increased, the cost support increased, and the rising power of DBP increased.

In December, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rose

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded in December, and the overall price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose. In December, the price of phthalic anhydride increased by 1.77%, and the phthalic anhydride market recovered. The price of phthalic anhydride rises, the cost of DBP rises, and the rising power of DBP increases.

The decline of PVC slowed down in December

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price fluctuated and fell in December, and the PVC price stabilized and the decline slowed down in late October. The PVC market has entered a weak finishing pattern. PVC weak consolidation, general spot market. The demand for plasticizer is insufficient, which is bad for DBP market.

Future expectations

According to DBP data analysts of business agency, in December, the price of phthalic anhydride, the raw material of DBP, rebounded and rose, the price of n-butanol stopped falling and warmed up, and the cost of DBP rose; In terms of demand, plasticizer is in the traditional off-season, PVC market is weak and consolidated, and the demand for plasticizer is general. In the future, the Spring Festival holiday is coming in January, and downstream customers have holidays one after another, resulting in a rapid decline in demand. It is expected that the demand for DBP will be relatively stable in the first half of the month, and then the demand will enter a new low. Insufficient demand makes DBP prices weak, mainly for consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride fell sharply this week. As of December 31, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 12166.67 yuan / ton, down 15.12% from the average price of 14333.33 yuan / ton on December 27 and 1.88% from the same period last month.

On December 31, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 114.61, down 3.14 points from yesterday, down 31.14% from the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 123.94% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started steadily this week. Recently, the operating rate of the downstream unsaturated resin market has declined, and the purchasing sentiment is general. As of the 31st, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 11000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 11000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 11000 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market price fell sharply, the factory shipment was positive, the demand slowed down, the transaction was light, and the wait-and-see mood was strong.

Upstream, the pure benzene market rose this week. The average price of pure benzene was 7230.00 yuan / ton on December 31 and 6830.00 yuan / ton on December 27, an increase of 5.86%. The market price of hydrobenzene in North China rose sharply this week, at 6975.00 yuan / ton on December 31 and 6512.50 yuan / ton on December 27, up 7.10%. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 5260.00 yuan / ton as of December 31.

3、 Future forecast

According to the maleic anhydride product analysts of business society, the domestic maleic anhydride market price fell sharply this week, the factory shipment was positive, the downstream resin operating rate decreased, the just need to slow down, and the wait-and-see mood was strong. The domestic maleic anhydride stopped falling on Friday, the trading slowed down, and some factory shipments were tight. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may be sorted out after the festival.