1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices rose first and then fell this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 69820 yuan / ton, down 0.01% from 69826.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 17.64% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, it has increased by 5 and decreased by 7 in the past three months, with a slight increase recently.

Macro aspect: the week before the new year’s Day festival, the problem of energy in Europe was fermented, the natural gas prices in many European countries continued to soar, the high electricity price caused concerns about supply interruption, and the rise of non-ferrous metals. The interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve landed and the short-term bad was exhausted.

Supply and demand: downstream power and production restrictions are over, mostly to digest early orders. In November, the operating rate of copper cable rose back to 85.55%, with a month on month increase of 5.10 percentage points, reaching a new high in the year, and the year-on-year decline also narrowed. It is expected that the operating rate of cable will decline again in December. The current copper inventory remains low, but the downstream consumption has entered the off-season, and the willingness to receive goods is not high. The TC of cspt in the first quarter was higher than that of changxiehe spot, and the domestic supply and demand tended to be loose. At present, the domestic inventory is expected to accumulate.

To sum up: low short-term inventory supports copper prices. However, it is difficult for copper prices to rise sharply in the off-season. It is expected that the short-term copper price is still mainly volatile.