On the 15th, the domestic liquefied gas market weakened as a whole, and the market price of Shandong civil gas continued to fall, with a downward range of about 50 yuan / ton. In the morning, the international crude oil price fell in a bad market mentality. In addition, in the current traditional off-season, the terminal demand is weak, the downstream maintains the replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is poor. It is expected that the civil price of liquefied gas will continue to be weak in the short term.

On June 14, the rare earth index was 856 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.00% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 215.87% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable. Some prices of domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series have declined. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has declined by 2000 yuan / ton to 960500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 1.165 million yuan / ton. The price of neodymium oxide is 980000 yuan / ton. The price of metal praseodymium is 1.265 million yuan / ton. The price of metal neodymium is 1.2 million yuan / ton. The price of dysprosium oxide has increased by 5000 yuan / ton to 2.545 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.535 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal is 3.315 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market is temporarily stable, and the recent procurement is general. In the domestic heavy rare earth market, the price of dysprosium series is mainly stable, the price of terbium series is temporarily stable, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Myanmar prohibits exports, and it is expected that the price of domestic rare earth market will remain stable in the later period.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market entered the consolidation stage after falling, and the price has not fluctuated significantly. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4050.00 yuan / ton on June 6 and 4050.00 yuan / ton on June 13. The price remained stable during the week, down 1.22% compared with June 1.

As of June 13, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region, 4170 yuan / ton

Hebei region, 4070 yuan / ton

Henan region, 4010-4050 yuan / ton

Although there is no obvious fluctuation in the domestic dimethyl ether market this week, the overall trend is weak, and the dimethyl ether Market in Henan is weak. At present, the raw material methanol market is mainly stable, and the civil market price of liquefied gas, a related product, has fallen in a narrow range, bringing some bad news to the dimethyl ether Market. In addition, the market demand is weak, and the downstream companies maintain more on-demand replenishment. The mentality is cautious, the market trading atmosphere is limited, and the price is mainly weak.

On June 13, the methanol market in Shanxi was mainly stable: the mainstream in Jincheng was 2540-2600 yuan / ton; The mainstream of Linfen is 2470-2490 yuan / ton; The retail price of major enterprises in Changzhi is stable at 2550 yuan / ton; The mainstream of Yuncheng is 2500 yuan / ton. The trend of methanol market in Anhui is general, and the downstream is purchased on demand. Some enterprises’ mainstream negotiation is about 2730-2800 yuan / ton, and some transactions have small differences.

At present, the market price of raw material methanol is mainly adjusted, which brings some support to the market. However, the civil price of liquefied gas, a related product, has returned to a weak market, which has brought some bad news to the market. In addition, the terminal demand is limited, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is not good, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market may remain weak in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of the business club, the domestic ABS market was positive this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose. As of June 10, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 13650 yuan / ton, up or down +2.25% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene rose sharply this week. The main reason is that the continuous rise of crude oil price has raised the prices of pure benzene and ethylene, resulting in the rise of styrene cost. There are more plant maintenance and supply reduction in styrene enterprises, which is conducive to the rise of styrene market. Styrene market transactions were acceptable, and spot prices continued to rise.

The price of acrylonitrile continued to weaken this week. After the maintenance of some enterprises in the early stage was completed, the domestic start-up enterprises were high, and the supply pressure increased, which continued to drag the spot price. On the demand side, it tends to be lagging and weak. There is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market. The ex factory price of spot goods is under multiple pressures. Many operators are bearish about the future market and have a poor mentality.

This week, the domestic butadiene market finished at a high level. Boosted by the higher transaction price of the external market and the shortage of domestic spot resources, the butadiene price rose strongly at the beginning of the week, reaching a new high in the year. With the rapid rise of butadiene price, downstream profits are upside down, and the demand side support is gradually weakening. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

This week, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side rose and fell, and the overall support was strong. In terms of industry load, recently, the operating rate of ABS enterprises has declined in a narrow range, and is still at a high level, which has a general effect on reducing pressure on the supply side. The health events in East China have eased. Although it will take some time for the market to fully recover, the industry mentality has been strengthened, and the spot price has been stimulated to a certain extent, and the offer has risen. The tension in Eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine remains the same, causing high crude oil volatility. The transmission effect of price to ABS industrial chain is stable. At present, the main bad news in the market is the contraction of downstream demand in the off-season, but the market momentum has warmed up.

Future forecast:

According to the analysts of the business agency, the ABS spot market rose this week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was acceptable, which supported the ABS cost side. Domestic spot supply is abundant and demand follow-up is poor. The recent health events have eased, and the operators’ confidence in the future market has been strengthened. It is expected that the ABS spot market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 9, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16925.00 yuan / ton this week, and the price remained stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price was mainly stable, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 16500 yuan / ton, the price of PMMA was mainly stable, the focus of negotiation was stable, the price range this week was small, and the overall market supply and demand was balanced.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16925.00 yuan / ton. The overall market operated smoothly, and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively shipped and gave up orders. Compared with last week, the price remained unchanged. The price of PMMA was stable, the overall supply and demand was balanced, and the purchase was just needed. At present, the focus of negotiation was stable, and the supply side was normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on June 8, the rubber and plastic index was 806 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 23.96% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 52.65% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

According to the PMMA analysts of the business agency, it is expected that the PMMA price will mainly operate stably in the short term, and the stable operation tends to be strong. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

On June 8, DOP price was temporarily stable

According to the data monitoring of the business club, the DOP price was temporarily stable on June 8, and the DOP market fell back. On June 8, the DOP price was 11987.50 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous trading day’s DOP price of 11987.50 yuan / ton; The cost of DOP fell, and the DOP market was weak and stable for the time being.

Key points of analysis

The price of raw material isooctanol fell violently, the price of phthalic anhydride was strong and stable temporarily, and the cost of DOP fell weakly; Downstream plastic PVC prices tend to stabilize and demand is stable; The downward pressure of plasticizers increased and the upward momentum weakened.

Aftermarket expectation

The demand for falling costs is temporarily stable, the upward momentum of DOP is weakened, and the downward pressure is increased. It is expected that the future DOP price will fluctuate and fall.

Acetic anhydride prices rose sharply in May

According to the monitoring data of the business club, the price of acetic anhydride rose sharply in May, and the market of acetic anhydride rose strongly. As of May 30, the price of acetic anhydride was 8550.00 yuan / ton, up 14.96% from 7437.50 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic anhydride rose violently, and the market of acetic anhydride recovered in May.

The price of raw material acetic acid rose sharply in May

It can be seen from the statistical data of business association that the correlation coefficient between acetic anhydride and acetic acid is 0.958 from May 2021 to April 2022, and acetic anhydride and acetic acid are highly positively correlated. It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price of business club that the price of acetic acid rose violently in May. As of May 30, the price of acetic acid was 5330 yuan / ton, up 25.12% from 4260 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month; Some acetic acid enterprises have stopped production for maintenance, the operating rate of acetic acid enterprises has decreased, the supply of acetic acid has decreased, the equipment of American acetic acid enterprises has stopped due to failure, the export of acetic acid has increased, the driving force for the rise of acetic acid is greater, the cost of acetic anhydride has risen, and the driving force for the rise of acetic anhydride is greater.

Methanol price fell slightly in May

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club that in May, the methanol price fluctuated and fell. As of May 30, the methanol price was 2625 yuan / ton, down 4.37% from 2745 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month. In May, the methanol price fluctuated and fell, the raw material cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride was still weak.

Outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business agency, the raw material methanol fell violently in May, the price of acetic acid rose sharply, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose; In May, many acetic acid enterprises stopped production for maintenance, the supply of acetic acid decreased, the export of acetic acid increased, the price of acetic acid rose, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the power of acetic anhydride rose. Generally speaking, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials will rise in the future, and it is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will rise strongly in the future.

In May, the domestic polysilicon market continued its upward trend since 2022, and the price continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business community, the monthly increase of polysilicon was 7.26%. The main reasons for the rise of silicon materials are tight supply and strong demand. The downstream silicon wafer manufacturers raised their prices to support, and the high start-up rate of silicon wafers ensured the stable purchase volume; The profit of battery chip and module manufacturers has improved, and the price of imported silicon material has also remained high. At the end of the month, the price range of polycrystalline silicon material was 220000-230000 yuan / ton, and the price range of single crystal material was 250000-265000 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, the supply of silicon material enterprises was stable this month. The operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers is relatively high. There are 12 domestic polysilicon production enterprises in production. In the whole may, 1-2 of them carried out equipment maintenance and overhaul, which affected part of the output. In addition, the supply increased slightly this month, and the increase was mainly from the release of expanded production capacity of Asian silicon and Yongxiang. The two offset each other, and the overall supply increased slightly compared with the previous month. At present, the supply is still tight compared with the relatively strong demand.

Most of the large manufacturers’ orders in June have been signed at the beginning of the month, and some scattered orders have flowed out, continuously pushing up the market reference price of silicon materials. At the end of the month, enterprises successively signed new orders in July, and some enterprises completed the signing, with the demand increasing. The continuous tight supply is the main reason for the continuous upward trend of silicon material price.

In terms of intermediate products, some large silicon wafer manufacturers continued to raise prices this month. In the middle of the year, central raised the quotation of some silicon wafer models. Longji did not adjust the price for the time being, and announced that the quotation was flat at the end of April. However, at present, the price of silicon wafer has reached an unprecedented high, which has formed a strong support for silicon material and put great pressure on downstream battery chips and components. In the middle and late ten days, silicon wafers are operating at a high level, and the price tends to be stable. Near the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of M6 was stable at about 5.72 yuan / piece, while the mainstream transaction price of M10 was maintained at about 6.86 yuan / piece. The supply of G12 silicon wafer was slightly tight. It rose slightly this month, and the mainstream transaction price was about 9.12 yuan / piece.

Battery and components: the market demand for battery and components is stable this month. Recently, the game between battery and downstream components is obvious. Component enterprises have strong resistance to high priced battery and slow down their procurement. Therefore, the power to increase the price of battery is insufficient, and battery enterprises also face the risk of accumulating the inventory. The price of components is mainly stable. The high price of components reduces the willingness to purchase terminal power stations, and the demand is slightly lower than that in the previous period. However, supported by favorable policies, some places are still hot. In addition, in terms of exports, due to Europe’s efforts to develop new energy in order to get rid of Russia’s traditional energy dependence, component exports have been boosted and external demand has increased.

In the future, the polycrystalline silicon analysts of the business community believe that the photovoltaic industry is still favored by the policies in the medium and long term, and the bull market may continue. However, with the increase of photovoltaic cost upstream, the long-term rise will also restrain the growth of demand. If the subsidy declines in the later stage, the policy support will be reduced, and the silicon material will also have a callback risk.

In May 2022, the domestic 1# lead ingot Market declined as a whole. The average price of the domestic market was 15505 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15150 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a monthly drop of 2.29%.

On May 30, the lead commodity index was 91.47, up 0.24 points from yesterday, down 31.74% from 134.01 points (November 29, 2016), and up 22.56% from 74.63 points, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the concept of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

Lead futures market in May 2022

varieties., Closing price on the 6th, Closing price on the 27th, 6-day inventory, 27 day inventory

Shanghai lead, 15755 yuan / ton, 15020, 82629 tons, 82002 tons

London lead, USD 2230 / T, USD 2165.5/t, 38050 tons, 38850 tons

In May, 2022, the lead ingot Market rose slightly in the first half of the month and then declined all the way. The trend in the second half of the month was mainly volatile. At the beginning of the month, after the May Day holiday, the price of lead stock in London Metal Exchange has mainly increased. During the May Day holiday, the overall trend of lead stock in London Metal Exchange has hit the bottom and rebounded. On the first trading day after the holiday, the center of gravity of Shanghai lead stock exchange has shifted upward. The price of lead stock has mainly increased, and the spot market has followed the upward trend. Later, affected by the Fed’s interest rate hike, the US data performed poorly. The US dollar operated at a high level as a whole, and the non-ferrous metal market was generally under pressure. The metal market ended its rise, and the overall pressure fell. Lun lead followed the trend of the market. During this period, the performance of Shanghai lead was similar to that of Lun lead. The overall decline was dominant, and the spot market followed the trend of Shanghai lead and fell continuously. In the middle of June, the strength of US dollar and US stocks ended, with the overall downward trend. The metal market stopped falling and stabilized, and the market bottomed out and rebounded. The lead price ended the downward trend and followed the rebound. In terms of inventory, as of the 27th, Shanghai lead inventory was 82002 tons, and Lun lead inventory was 38850 tons. The overall inventory has not changed much this month.

Basically, the supply side changes little, and the overall supply is slightly tight. In terms of downstream demand, the battery is still in the traditional seasonal off-season, the sales situation is general, and the support for lead ingot demand is limited. However, with the increasing number of areas that have resumed work and production in China, market participants believe that there may be a wave of replenishment demand for lead ingots in the future, which supports the recovery of lead prices. In the future market, the business club believes that the downstream gradually enters the off-season, which has limited support for the demand for lead ingots. According to the current overall situation forecast, it is expected that the weak shock trend will prevail in the short term, and the off-season price will mainly follow the trend of the futures market, which has an overall shock trend.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the beginning of the week was 7550.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate at the end of the week was 7587.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.50%, and the price increased by 66.39% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

The domestic potassium nitrate market rose slightly this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent potassium nitrate Market showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the market continued to rise this week. This is mainly because of the recent sharp rise in raw materials, the passive rise of potassium nitrate manufacturers, traders’ reluctance to sell goods, general market transactions, and the market of potassium nitrate continues to rise. According to the statistics of the business agency, the quotation of the mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers this week is 7500-7700 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the international market price of potassium chloride has been strong and rising. On June 2, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory price was about 4480 yuan / ton, and the quotation increased by 500 yuan / ton. However, the domestic spot market is in short supply, the domestic inventory is relatively low, the supply exceeds the demand, and the price of potassium chloride rises slightly. The high price of potassium chloride can provide strong cost support for potassium carbonate.

Recently, the price of potash fertilizer in China has remained at a high level, the cost has remained at a high level, and the market is in short supply. It is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by the main potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analyst of the business society. They are for reference only. Please contact the relevant manufacturers for more price details).