Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of the business club, the domestic ABS market was positive this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose. As of June 10, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 13650 yuan / ton, up or down +2.25% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene rose sharply this week. The main reason is that the continuous rise of crude oil price has raised the prices of pure benzene and ethylene, resulting in the rise of styrene cost. There are more plant maintenance and supply reduction in styrene enterprises, which is conducive to the rise of styrene market. Styrene market transactions were acceptable, and spot prices continued to rise.

The price of acrylonitrile continued to weaken this week. After the maintenance of some enterprises in the early stage was completed, the domestic start-up enterprises were high, and the supply pressure increased, which continued to drag the spot price. On the demand side, it tends to be lagging and weak. There is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market. The ex factory price of spot goods is under multiple pressures. Many operators are bearish about the future market and have a poor mentality.

This week, the domestic butadiene market finished at a high level. Boosted by the higher transaction price of the external market and the shortage of domestic spot resources, the butadiene price rose strongly at the beginning of the week, reaching a new high in the year. With the rapid rise of butadiene price, downstream profits are upside down, and the demand side support is gradually weakening. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

This week, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side rose and fell, and the overall support was strong. In terms of industry load, recently, the operating rate of ABS enterprises has declined in a narrow range, and is still at a high level, which has a general effect on reducing pressure on the supply side. The health events in East China have eased. Although it will take some time for the market to fully recover, the industry mentality has been strengthened, and the spot price has been stimulated to a certain extent, and the offer has risen. The tension in Eastern Europe, Russia and Ukraine remains the same, causing high crude oil volatility. The transmission effect of price to ABS industrial chain is stable. At present, the main bad news in the market is the contraction of downstream demand in the off-season, but the market momentum has warmed up.

Future forecast:

According to the analysts of the business agency, the ABS spot market rose this week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was acceptable, which supported the ABS cost side. Domestic spot supply is abundant and demand follow-up is poor. The recent health events have eased, and the operators’ confidence in the future market has been strengthened. It is expected that the ABS spot market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.