According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA market rebounded slightly in the recent period (August 7-15). As of August 15, the average market price was 6285 yuan / ton, up 7.91%, up 17.91% year-on-year.

At present, there are many PTA overhauls. Among the 2 million ton units of Yisheng Ningbo, the 1.5 million ton unit of Jiaxing Petrochemical stopped on August 2, the load of the 700000 ton unit of Yadong Petrochemical decreased to 80%, and the load of the 2.25 million ton unit of Yisheng Dalian decreased to 60%. 2.2 million tons of main suppliers in the north were overhauled as planned on August 1. The start-up of the industry has dropped to around 68%, and the spot circulation is relatively small, pushing up the PTA price. In addition, in terms of inventory, the inventory continued to be removed recently, with a social inventory of 2.656 million tons, and the overall pressure was small.

In terms of crude oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) previously raised the growth forecast of oil demand this year, and the data level eased the expected pressure of demand decline caused by economic recession; Superimposed with the soaring natural gas price, the demand for oil as an alternative energy was boosted, the crude oil rebounded and the PTA cost support was strengthened. However, recently, due to the expected impact of the global economic recession, the risk of falling energy demand has always been shrouded in the futures market. In addition, the Iranian nuclear negotiations have surfaced again, and the oil price is under pressure. As of August 15, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $89.41/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $95.10/barrel.

Under the influence of high temperature, the phenomenon of power limit and production limit at the terminal occurred frequently. Since the middle of August, the textile market has ushered in the first wave of power limit in the industry. Most weaving and textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have also received the notice of peak shift power limit. With the release of the power limit policy, the overall power on rate of enterprises has a downward trend. At present, the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped below 48%. The terminal mainly digests the original stock, the weaving inventory remains high, the order situation is still weak, and the demand performance is flat.

According to the analysts of business society, from the perspective of PTA itself, some units are planned to restart and supply is expected to increase, but PTA units are still overhauled and the capacity operation rate is still low. On the cost side, the support will gradually weaken as the international crude oil price falls. At the same time, the downstream polyester production and sales are not prosperous, the factory’s intention to purchase spot is not high, and the PTA spot trading atmosphere is still lukewarm. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, although the PTA supply is low, the demand is poor due to the cost drag. It is expected that the short-term PTA price will fluctuate weakly.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on August 12:

Qingdao refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8000 yuan / ton, and Shijiazhuang refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7850 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical quoted 7900 yuan / ton, and Yangba quoted 7700 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 8000 yuan / ton, and Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7900 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8050 yuan / ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8050 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis comments:

In terms of crude oil, the market expects that the oil supply in the Gulf of Mexico, which was interrupted before, will soon recover. In addition, the economic recession is expected to continue. The risk of falling energy demand has always covered the futures market. The short-term oil price is still fluctuating in the long-term stalemate.

Today, Xinhai Petrochemical increased xylene by 150 yuan / ton.

The terminal gasoline market is good, which supports the market of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of baking soda was adjusted and operated this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2550 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2533.33 yuan / ton. The price fell by 0.65%, up 60.68% year-on-year. On August 11, the baking soda commodity index was 168.14, down 1.11 points from yesterday, down 28.71% from the highest point 235.84 (November 10, 2021) in the cycle, and up 90.48% from the lowest point 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda has been adjusted and operated, and the demand of the downstream market is generally in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan Province is about 2300-2600 yuan / ton. In terms of raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of soda ash this week has been adjusted and operated as a whole. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is general. In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the week was 2700 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2690 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.37% and an increase of 24.39% over the same period last year. On the downstream side, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is generally in the near future. In a comprehensive view, the price of baking soda is short-term or consolidation operation, and the specific demand of the downstream market.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market is stable but weak this week, and the spot prices of individual brands are slightly reduced. As of August 11, the average price of 50 particle samples of domestic potassium sulfate was 5200 yuan / ton, up or down by – 2.80% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This week, the momentum of domestic potash fertilizer market further declined, the operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim type enterprises remained low, and the overall operating rate further decreased by nearly 30%. However, the downstream consumption is poor, which offsets the low load and low supply of potassium sulfate. The continuation of the previous export policy has affected export sales to a certain extent, and the supply pressure on the site has not decreased. In terms of upstream potassium chloride, there are still too many border trade and port arrivals this week. There are accumulated stocks of imported and domestic goods at the same time. Downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate purchase generally. The competition in the field is strengthened, and the price has been reduced to the cost price. Potassium chloride has poor support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. At present, the market price of potassium sulfate has fallen, the profit situation of enterprises is poor, the price of northeast and other regions is inverted, the news of new orders is rare, and the response of traders is slow in the downstream.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analyst of business club thinks that the domestic potassium sulfate Market is stable but weak this week, and the potassium chloride market is declining. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is weakened. The supply side is low but the follow-up situation on the demand side is poor. In addition, there are more goods in the market. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will continue to weaken in the short term due to poor demand.

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, as of August 10, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11433.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price on August 1, down 36.25% compared with the price on July 10, and down 38.64% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In the recent period (8.1-8.10), the quotation of epichlorohydrin enterprises fluctuated and weakened, and the overall market atmosphere was light. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has risen, the price of raw material glycerin is temporarily stable, the cost is supported by a certain extent, the market operating load has increased slightly, the supply side is sufficient, but the demand side is weak, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the trading atmosphere is flat.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the reference price of propylene in the upstream was 7240.60 on August 9, down 1.47% compared with 7348.60 on August 1.

The downstream epoxy resin, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, on August 9, the reference price of epoxy resin was 17750.00, an increase of 1.14% compared with August 1 (17550.00).

The epichlorohydrin analyst of business club believes that the current cost support is acceptable, but the supply and demand support is insufficient. The downstream procurement is more cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by stalemate in the short term.

On August 9, the acetic anhydride market was weak and lowered

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic anhydride fell weakly on August 9, and the market of acetic anhydride fell. On August 9, the price of acetic anhydride was 6200 yuan / ton, down 0.40% from 6225 yuan / ton on the previous trading day. The price of some acetic anhydride enterprises fell below 6000 yuan / ton, and the overall acetic anhydride market was adjusted weakly.

Key points of analysis

The price of acetic acid fell weakly, and the price of methanol rose violently. On August 9, the price of methanol increased by 2.97%. The cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride was adjusted weakly. The operation of acetic acid enterprises was stable, the supply of acetic acid was stable, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, the sales of acetic anhydride was poor, the downstream just needed to purchase, the customers’ purchasing intention was general, and the wait-and-see was dominant. The pressure of acetic anhydride decline was still weak, and the driving force for increase was weak.

Future forecast

The adjustment demand for weak cost is poor, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride is still weak, and the upward momentum is weak. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will be weak and stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, on August 1, the average ex factory price of domestic 85% phosphoric acid was 8550 yuan / ton, and on August 8, the average ex factory price of domestic 85% hot phosphoric acid was 8190 yuan / ton. This week, the price of domestic 85% Industrial grade phosphoric acid fell by 5.32%.

2、 Market analysis

Phosphoric acid prices continued to fall this week. This week, the price of raw yellow phosphorus continued to fall, and the cost support was weak. Phosphoric acid manufacturers have lowered their prices for shipment. Under the downward trend of the market, the downstream is mainly based on demand, and the dealers operate with caution. As of August 8, the factory price of 85% phosphoric acid in China was about 8190 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 7300 yuan / T, the ex factory quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 7800 yuan / T, the market quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 7400 yuan / T, and the market quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Nanjing is about 8500 yuan / T.

The raw material is phosphorus ore. This week, the domestic phosphate ore market is running steadily, and the reference price of phosphate rock is 1100 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand for phosphate rock is stable, and the trading atmosphere in the site is normal. The operators are reluctant to sell. Large factories and mining enterprises are mainly for their own use, and the basic external sales are very small. The on-site circulation spot is insufficient, and the market continues to operate strongly. According to the phosphorus ore data analyst of the business association, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly high-level consolidation operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

The raw material is yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus fell this week. At present, the trading of the yellow phosphorus market is still not improving. The market situation is light, the market sales is general, and the downstream enterprises purchase at low prices, which depresses the confidence of the yellow phosphorus market. Most of the yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, and only one is discussed. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 26500 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 26000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts of business association, the price of yellow phosphorus, the raw material, has continued to fall recently, and the cost side support has weakened. The supply of phosphoric acid market is sufficient, and the terminal demand is limited. The decline of phosphoric acid continues. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will continue to fall in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of August 5, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was referenced at 8333 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 1 (the reference price of butanone was 8533 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 200 yuan / ton, down 2.34%. Compared with the price on July 6 (the reference price of butanone was 10533 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 2200 yuan / ton, down 20.89%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that this week, the domestic butanone market showed a downward trend as a whole. After the completion of the downstream phased procurement, this week, the trading atmosphere of butanone in the field returned to be indifferent, the downstream demand was weak, the trading atmosphere in the field showed a stalemate, and the confidence of butanone operators was insufficient. At the beginning of the week, the market price of butanone in the field was weak, and at the end of the week, the overall price of butanone in the market declined. Some butanone suppliers sold goods at a profit, and the ex factory price of butanone was reduced by 200-300 yuan / ton. As of August 5, The ex factory price of domestic butanone refers to around 8200-8400 yuan / ton. The transaction in the market is general and the transaction is not hot.

On the upstream side, in the first week of August, the domestic liquefied gas market was still weak as a whole, and the civil gas market in Shandong was steadily declining. At the beginning of August, the domestic liquefied gas market continued in the off-season, the overall trend was weak, the market was hard to find, and the civil gas market in Shandong was stable and low. In terms of cost, the international crude oil market fell during the week, which brought obvious bad news to the market. In August, CP was introduced, and both propylene and butane fell sharply, which hit the domestic market mentality. On the demand side, the weather in August was hot, and the terminal demand had not been significantly improved. The downstream mainly maintained replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere was poor. There are obvious negative factors in the civil market of liquefied gas, and the price remains weak. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5626.00 yuan / ton on August 1, and 5600.00 yuan / ton on August 4.

Post market analysis of butanone

At present, the butanone market is weak as a whole, the downstream demand side is cautious, and the support is general. In terms of export, the international overall supply of butanone is relatively sufficient, so the export has not been significantly improved. The butanone data analyst of the business society believes that in the short term, the butanone market will mainly be adjusted and operated in a narrow range. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the supply and demand side and the changes in the field environmental factors

During the week, monomer prices fell slightly, ethylene oxide and its upstream ethylene basically hit the bottom, and EO currently has a loss of around 770 yuan, so there is no room for decline. The supplier is still in the market, but the demand transaction follow-up continues to be weak, and the goods holders are mainly active in shipping. Affected by extreme high temperature weather and the shortage of downstream funds, the demand side is still weak, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market still exists, the monomer inventory is under pressure, and most downstream deliveries are cautious.

Forecast: short term market supply and demand may still be weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline was strong and volatile in the first half of July, and the high price in the second half of the month fell back. On July 1, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12300-12500 yuan / ton; On July 28, the price in Shandong was 10900-11130 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 11350-11800 yuan / ton. The average price of aniline in this month fell by 7.43% compared with the beginning of the month, and increased by 5.02% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw material: pure benzene: due to the large number of downstream production units in the early stage, the scale of pure benzene has only increased slightly, the continuous supply of pure benzene is tight, domestic trade shipments are reduced, the high-level imports of superimposed outer disks are reduced, and the ports remain in the state of de stocking in the month. However, due to the continuous broad decline of crude oil and the significant decline of pure benzene in the external market, the support of external news was weak. In addition, the downstream load reduction, shutdown and maintenance increased, the demand follow-up was poor, and pure benzene was under pressure. The price of pure benzene was 9509 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9026 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 5.08% this month and an increase of 9.93% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the price ladder of domestic nitric acid fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of nitric acid in East China was 2950 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 2750 yuan / ton, down 6.78% from the beginning of the month and up 5.77% from the same period last year.

Due to the shutdown of some aniline plants in late June, the operating rate decreased significantly, the factory inventory remained at a normal level, and the cost side support remained, aniline was strong and volatile in the first half of July. As the cost side continued to decline and the downstream entered the traditional off-season with poor demand, the high price of aniline was difficult to maintain, and the price fell broadly in the second half of the month.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Raw material, pure benzene: in the short term, the pure benzene port is still in the state of de stocking, but the market expects that the tight supply of pure benzene in August may be alleviated, and in addition, the import volume of pure benzene will increase in the later period, and pure benzene may still fall.

Nitric acid: the raw material market of liquid ammonia is poor, and the shipment of nitric acid is not smooth. It is expected that the price of nitric acid may be dominated by weak operation.

Raw material support is weak, downstream demand is poor, and aniline is expected to continue the weak trend in August. In the later stage, we will continue to pay attention to the trend of cost, the change of downstream demand and the change of operating rate of aniline plant.