1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was temporarily stable this week. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1098 yuan/ton, down 5.34% from the same period last year. On November 10, the caustic soda commodity index was 157.99, unchanged from yesterday, down 40.49% from the highest point of 265.47 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 142.65% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price was temporarily stable this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1050-1100 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1100-1300 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in the market is stuck and the supply has increased recently. However, the downstream market is mainly in a wait-and-see mood, and more cautious purchasing is required. The purchasing mood is general, and the market is in a stalemate.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 0 kinds of rising commodities, 2 kinds of falling commodities and 3 kinds of zero rising commodities in the price list of chlor alkali industry in the 44th week of 2022 (10.31-11.4). The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 3.00%) and PVC (- 0.47%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.7%.

Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda is in a stalemate, the downstream alumina procurement demand is general, the procurement mood is not high, the wait-and-see operation is dominant, and the procurement is cautious. It is comprehensively expected that the caustic soda will be operated in a weak and stable manner next week, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the large list data of business cooperatives, the bromine price is weak and the overall market turnover is average. It can be seen from the monitoring chart of the business community that the price of bromine continued to rise from late September to November. At the beginning of November, the average market price was 49800 yuan/ton. On November 15, the average market price of bromine was 47800 yuan/ton, down 4.02%, 30.29% compared with the same period last year. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of bromine in Shandong is about 46000-48000 yuan/ton.

Downstream

The downstream flame retardants, pesticide intermediates and other industries have recently started to maintain low load, with low demand and insufficient support for bromine price. Tetrabromobisphenol A, the mainstream offer is about 44000-46000 yuan/ton, which is about 1000 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of the month. The inquiry atmosphere is weak, and the market deals sporadically. The supply and demand game, bromine enterprises shipping is not smooth. The market transaction is still dominated by just need procurement, the industry is pessimistic, and there is a phenomenon of taking advantage of opportunities to lower prices.

Supply side

In winter, the bromine industry routinely stopped production, and the industry prosperity declined. At present, the overall operating rate of the bromine industry remains at about 64%, down about 4% from last week. Affected by the temperature, some seawater bromine devices in Shandong stopped, and the output of seawater bromine declined. Although bromine enterprises have not started enough, they still have inventory, and most of them mainly consume inventory in the early stage.

Imports

Imports are sufficient. According to customs data, the cumulative import of bromine from January to September was 48000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Imported bromine is still an important supplement to domestic bromine. According to the import volume of bromine in previous years, the annual import volume of bromine in 2022 is expected to exceed 60000 tons.

Related products: The upstream sulfur price is temporarily stable. At present, the sulfur market is on the sidelines. The manufacturer’s production is stable. The downstream sulphuric acid market is under consolidation and operation. The support for sulfur is limited. The progress of winter fertilizer storage is slow. The demand for sulfur is weak. The enterprise will ship as needed. It is expected that the sulfur market will be under consolidation and operation in the future.

According to the analysts of the business society, the price of bromine is weak in the near future. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are generally supported in the near future. The supply and demand of both sides play a game. The spot supply of bromine is sufficient, and there is an opportunity to depress the price in the downstream. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be weak, depending on the downstream market demand.

This week, the spot tin market price (11.4-11.11) rose in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 163410 yuan/ton last weekend and 179160 yuan/ton this weekend, up 9.64% weekly.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price will continue to weaken after April 2022, with only partial weekly price increases, and the increase is relatively low. The overall trend is mainly downward.

Futures market situation this week

Variety/. Closing price/. Compared with the same period of last week/. Inventory (ton)/. Inventory change compared with last week (ton)

Shanghai Tin/. 181000 yuan/ton/.+17500 yuan/ton/. 2671/.+469

London tin/. 21200 dollars/ton/.+2685 dollars/ton/. 3805/. – 395

In terms of futures market, tin price this week was the main actor. On the macro level, the US CPI data in October was less than expected, and the market’s expectation of the Federal Reserve slowing down interest rate increases continued to rise. Affected by this, the US dollar index fell sharply by 2.31% to the lowest point in nearly two months. The metal market was boosted on Friday and rose significantly today.

From the basic point of view, the overall change of tin is limited, and it is still in the pattern of loose supply and weak demand. Since the third quarter of this year, the import of refined tin has been in good condition, and the domestic tin supply is generally acceptable. Downstream demand: The downstream of tin is mainly tin solder. The main application terminal of tin solder is still in electronic products, accounting for about 80% of tin solder. The overall performance of the electronic industry has been poor recently, not only in domestic and foreign electronic consumer areas, but also in the overall weak performance, which adversely affects the demand for tin. In general, there is no big positive expectation for the supply and demand of tin in the near future. However, due to the obvious decline of tin price in the early stage and the low inventory of tin itself, it is very vulnerable to the disturbance of macro and on-site funds. With the disturbance of multiple funds, tin prices have risen significantly. The business agency predicted that the tin price in the future would still be affected more by macro factors, mainly maintaining a wide range of shocks, and the overall trend would be weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 10 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 45th week of 2022 (11.7-11.11), of which there are 3 kinds of commodities that have risen by more than 5%, accounting for 13% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; The top three commodities were nickel (7.52%), tin (6.07%) and silver (5.08%). There were 10 kinds of commodities falling month on month, with antimony (-1.63%), praseodymium oxide (-1.46%) and praseodymium metal (-1.09%) as the top three products. This week, the average rise or fall was 1.06%.

The price of o-xylene fell this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of ortho xylene price of the business community that as of November 11, the price of ortho xylene was 9000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton, or 3.23%, from the price of 9300 yuan/ton on November 4 last weekend. The price decline of the domestic ortho xylene market remains unchanged.

Raw material mixed xylene market fell first and then rose this week

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart of the business community that the mixed xylene price continued to decline this week. As of November 11, the price of mixed xylene was 8020 yuan/ton, down 1.84% from 8170 yuan/ton on November 4; The price of mixed xylene increased by 0.25% compared with 8000 yuan/ton on November 10. The decline of mixed xylene remained this week, but crude oil rose at the weekend, mixed xylene rebounded and rose, and the downward pressure on ortho xylene weakened.

The downward trend of phthalic anhydride price remains this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price of the business community that the domestic phthalic anhydride price of neighboring France remained declining this week. As of November 11, the quotation of phthalic anhydride of neighboring France was 9150 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the price of 9437.50 yuan/ton on November 4. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride in ortho phthalic acid still fell, the cost dropped, and ortho xylene fell under great pressure.

Future outlook

Analysts of ortho xylene data from the business community believe that the price decline of phthalic anhydride remains this week, mixed xylene has stopped falling and rebounded, the cost of ortho xylene has rebounded due to weak demand for ortho xylene, and the downward pressure on ortho xylene remains. It is expected that the price of ortho xylene will be weak and stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1510 yuan/ton on October 31, and 1500 yuan/ton on November 4. The price of ammonium sulfate fell 0.66% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Ammonium sulfate market fluctuated slightly this week, with prices falling first and then rising. At present, the supply side of ammonium sulfate has not changed, and the transaction on the market is average. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and there is still resistance to high prices. The export demand is weak and the overall performance is poor. The bidding price of coking ammonium sulfate decreased slightly this week, and the price of domestic ammonium sulfate fluctuated in a narrow range. As of November 4, coking grade ammonium sulfate was priced at about 1450 yuan/ton in Shandong and 1430 yuan/ton in Hebei. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation in Shandong is 1500-1540 yuan/ton.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer market was mainly waiting for consolidation and operation. Due to the poor winter storage market, the demand for raw materials weakened. The turnover in the compound fertilizer field is light, waiting for the introduction of the winter storage policy, and there is no good at present.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts from the business community believe that the ammonium sulfate market has been slightly shaken recently, the downstream demand is stable, the transaction is fair, and the manufacturers and dealers are still cautious. It is expected that ammonium sulfate will continue to operate in a shock consolidation manner in the short term.

This week, the spot tin market price (10.28-11.4) fell in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 168310 yuan/ton last weekend and 163410 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly drop of 2.91%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price will continue to weaken after April 2022, with only partial weekly price increases, and the increase is relatively low. The overall trend is mainly downward.

Futures market situation this week

Variety., closing price., compared with the same period of last week., inventory volume (ton)., compared with last week’s inventory change (ton)

Shanghai Tin, 163500 yuan/ton/. – 1270 yuan/ton/. 2202/. – 150 yuan/ton

London tin/. 18515 dollars/ton/.+445 dollars/ton/. 4425/. – 5

The futures market is dominated by the downward trend of tin price this week, with negative macro factors dominating. Non ferrous metals are generally under pressure, while Lunxi and Shanghai Tin are dominated by the downward trend. In terms of inventories, the overall decline of inventories this week is at a reasonable range.

From the basic point of view, the overall change of tin is limited, and it is still in the pattern of loose supply and weak demand. Since the third quarter of this year, the import of refined tin has been in good condition, and the domestic tin supply is generally acceptable. In terms of downstream demand, the downstream of tin is mainly tin solder, which is mainly used in electronic products, accounting for about 80% of tin solder. However, the overall performance of the electronics industry has been poor recently, not only in the domestic and foreign electronics consumption areas, but also in the overall weak performance, which adversely affects the demand for tin. On the whole, there is no big positive expectation for the supply and demand of tin in the near future, and tin is very vulnerable to macro and market capital disturbance due to its low inventory. The business community expects that the future tin price will still be more affected by macro, mainly maintaining a wide range of shocks, and the overall trend is weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are seven kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector that have risen month on month in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 44th week of 2022 (10.31-11.4), with nickel (4.99%), zinc (2.49%) and silver (2.03%) in the top three. There were 14 kinds of goods that declined month on month, and 1 kind of goods that declined more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the number of monitored goods in this sector; The top three products of the decline were praseodymium oxide (-5.52%), praseodymium metal (-3.17%) and neodymium oxide (-2.68%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.58%.

Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the figure above that the domestic urea market price was temporarily stable this week, and the urea price was 2506.00 yuan/ton, down 6.56% year on year. On November 6, the urea commodity index was 116.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.48% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 109.64% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Weak cost support, general downstream demand, weak urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in China is temporarily stable this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell slightly, from 5564.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5344.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 3.95%, 29.99% lower than the same period last year; The price of anthracite dropped slightly. Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) dropped from 1850 yuan/ton at the weekend to 1630 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 220 yuan/ton. Upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the price support for urea was average. This week, the price of melamine at the downstream of urea was consolidated at a high level, which was 8266.67 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand is small and industrial demand is weak. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.

Urea price may fall slightly

In the middle and late November, the domestic urea market may slightly fluctuate. The urea analysts of the business association believed that the price of anthracite in the upstream of urea fell slightly, and the urea cost support weakened. The downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is weak, and the daily urea production has a downward trend. In the future, urea may decline in a narrow range.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 4, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products this week was 16075.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the price of the same period last week. The overall market price fluctuation range of PMMA is small. At present, the mainstream manufacturers’ quotation range is about 16100 yuan/ton, and the focus of negotiation is stable. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the procurement atmosphere is general.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent superior products was 16075.00 yuan/ton. The overall market was stable, with limited price fluctuation. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 16100 yuan/ton. The price of PMMA was stable. At present, the overall market is in balance of supply and demand, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The supply side is normal.

Rubber and plastic index: On November 3, the rubber and plastic index was 670 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 36.79% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 26.89% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the analysts of PMMA from China Business Association, PMMA will operate stably in the short term.

In October, the market of nitrile rubber weakened and the price fell. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of nitrile rubber was 16925 yuan/ton at the beginning of October, and 15650 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 7.53% from the beginning of the month. In October, the demand side of nitrile rubber was sluggish, the supply side was loose, and the market performance was weak. Since October, the factory price of Lanhua NBR has been lowered twice, and by the end of the month, the factory price of Lanhua NBR N42 was 14200 yuan/ton; The offer from the merchants gradually goes down with the factory price. As of October 31, the mainstream offer of Shunze nitrile 3355 market in East China was 15200~15500 yuan/ton, the mainstream offer of Lanhua nitrile 3305 market was 14500~14700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream offer of Nandi nitrile 1052 market was 17800~18300 yuan/ton.

In October, the domestic nitrile rubber plant basically operated normally, the enterprise inventory accumulated, and the pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber increased.

In October, the raw material butadiene fell sharply, the price of acrylonitrile rose, and the cost of butadiene acrylonitrile rubber weakened. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 30, the price of butadiene was 7603 yuan/ton, down 8.43% from 8303 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of October 30, the price of acrylonitrile was 10890 yuan/ton, up 10.33% from 9870 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Taking the ex factory price of Lanhua nitrile rubber 3305 as an example, as of October 30, the ex factory price of Lanhua nitrile rubber 3305 was 14800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 9448 yuan/ton; At the beginning of the month, the ex factory price of Lanhua Nitrile 3305 was 16200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical cost was 9650 yuan/ton; Relatively speaking, the change of raw material price in this month has little impact on the cost of nitrile rubber, but the profit of nitrile rubber is reduced due to the lower price.

In October, the downstream rubber products industry started at a low level, and the purchase of nitrile rubber was sluggish. The market transaction was light, and the demand was not supported by nitrile rubber.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that the current demand for NBR is sluggish, and the supply side is loose. It is expected that the NBR market will continue to be weak in the future.

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, as of October 28, the average price quoted by formic acid enterprises was 2533.33 yuan/ton, down 27.62% compared with the price on October 1, down 35.04% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, and down 68.53% compared with the same period last year.

In October, the market price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid fell sharply. From the supply and demand side, the enterprise started normally, the new installation line has been opened, and the market supply has increased significantly. On the demand side, domestic downstream pharmaceutical, rubber, leather, pesticide and other industries have followed up on demand, and export orders have performed fairly well. However, the market pressure is highlighted due to the increased supply of goods. The inventory is gradually under pressure. The enterprise is actively shipping, and the price has fallen.

In terms of cost, the reference price of upstream caustic soda was 1174.00 on October 27, a decrease of 5.17% compared with October 1 (1238.00); The upstream liquid ammonia market in Shandong stopped falling and stabilized on October 27; For upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price was temporarily stable on October 27. On October 27, the reference price of sulfuric acid was 422.00, up 42.57% compared with October 1 (296.00); The upstream methanol market continued to decline on October 27. On October 27, the reference price of methanol was 2808.00, a decrease of 6.79% compared with October 1 (3012.50). The price of upstream products rose and fell this month, with limited support for formic acid.

According to the formic acid analysts of the business community, at present, the main raw material methanol is mainly weak, the cost support is weak, the supply support is insufficient, and the demand performance is fair. The market transaction is mainly on demand. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will be weak, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.