Recent urea price trend

It can be seen from the figure above that the domestic urea market price was temporarily stable this week, and the urea price was 2506.00 yuan/ton, down 6.56% year on year. On November 6, the urea commodity index was 116.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.48% from the highest point of 152.33 (2022-05-15) in the cycle, and up 109.64% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Weak cost support, general downstream demand, weak urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in China is temporarily stable this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream market of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell slightly, from 5564.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5344.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 3.95%, 29.99% lower than the same period last year; The price of anthracite dropped slightly. Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) dropped from 1850 yuan/ton at the weekend to 1630 yuan/ton at the weekend, down 220 yuan/ton. Upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the price support for urea was average. This week, the price of melamine at the downstream of urea was consolidated at a high level, which was 8266.67 yuan/ton.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand is small and industrial demand is weak. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.

Urea price may fall slightly

In the middle and late November, the domestic urea market may slightly fluctuate. The urea analysts of the business association believed that the price of anthracite in the upstream of urea fell slightly, and the urea cost support weakened. The downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is weak, and the daily urea production has a downward trend. In the future, urea may decline in a narrow range.