The price of ortho xylene is weak and temporarily stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 13th, the price of ortho xylene was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton or 5.43% compared to the 9200 yuan/ton price of ortho xylene on October 1st; Compared to October 9th, the price of ortho benzene is temporarily stable at 8700 yuan/ton. This week, crude oil prices rebounded and adjusted, mixed xylene prices fluctuated and fell, and the cost of ortho benzene decreased; The downstream market for phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, with weak demand for ortho benzene and weak demand for cost reduction. This week, ortho xylene prices were weak and temporarily stable.

This week, the raw material mixed xylene market fluctuated and fell

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of October 13th, the price of mixed xylene was 8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44% compared to the price of 8200 yuan/ton on October 8th. Crude oil prices have rebounded and adjusted, mixed xylene prices have fluctuated and fallen, raw material costs have decreased, and the downward pressure on adjacent xylene market has increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls this week

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of October 13th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8387.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47% compared to the price of 8600 yuan/ton on October 8th. The price of Naifa phthalic anhydride has decreased, the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased, the phthalic anhydride market is operating cautiously, terminal demand remains cold, downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s adjacent xylene data believe that crude oil prices have rebounded and adjusted this week, mixed xylene prices have fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of raw materials for adjacent xylene has decreased; The price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen, and the market for phthalic anhydride is weak. The downstream demand for adjacent benzene is still weak. In the future, both the upstream and downstream markets of the ortho benzene industry chain have declined, and the cost of ortho benzene has decreased. The demand for ortho benzene is weak, and it is expected that ortho benzene prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of October 12, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 8850 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 9066 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 216 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39%, and a decrease of 9.69% compared to early September.

After the end of the Double Festival holiday, the overall domestic n-butanol market showed a fluctuating and declining trend. Two days before the start of the holiday, domestic logistics and transportation gradually resumed, and the downstream of n-butanol was briefly stocked, driving the overall focus of the n-butanol market to rise slightly. However, the sustained support for downstream demand is limited. After the demand side weakened, the market trading atmosphere was light. Starting from October 10th, many regions in Shandong saw weak decline in the n-butanol market, with some factories lowering the price of n-butanol by around 100-200 yuan/ton. As of October 12th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8800-8900 yuan per ton.

Analysis of market influencing factors

In terms of demand: After the Double Festival, although there was a brief period of positive demand in the n-butanol market, due to the lack of effective and sustained support for the market, the support for n-butanol became loose after the demand weakened, leading to a rapid decline in the n-butanol market.

In terms of cost: After the holiday, the overall trend of the propylene market has declined, and the support for n-butanol on the cost side is weak. The momentum for n-butanol to support the market is insufficient, and the market is weak and declining.

In terms of equipment: As October approaches, the basic maintenance of domestic n-butanol units has been completed, and factories that have completed the maintenance plan are gradually resuming production. The operating load of n-butanol units will increase, and the overall output will also be in an increasing period. Therefore, the support provided to n-butanol in terms of production supply and equipment operation is also average.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is light, and downstream stocking is cautious. Entering the fourth quarter, downstream demand has entered the traditional off-season, and the overall downstream construction is average, with limited support for n-butanol. In addition, the current supply side of n-butanol is relatively loose, and the supply side support is average. Business Society’s n-butanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly be weak and adjusted for operation, The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

Recently (9.28-10.11), the nitrile rubber market has been weak and slightly declining. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 11th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.10% from 15900 yuan/ton before the holiday. The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have remained high, while the cost of nitrile rubber has remained basically stable; After the holiday, downstream inquiries were light and there were not many market transactions. The production enterprise’s quotation is temporarily stable.

Recently (9.28-10.11), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile have stabilized at high levels, and the cost of nitrile rubber has remained basically stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 11th, the price of butadiene was 8710 yuan/ton; As of October 11th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9825 yuan/ton.

Recently (9.28-10.11), the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants has been temporarily stable.

In the domestic nitrile rubber market, some brands have sufficient supply of goods, and merchants have slightly lowered their offers. Downstream rubber product industries such as rubber hoses and automotive parts have started stable operations. After the holiday, inquiries for nitrile rubber are cautious, and the trading atmosphere on the market is slightly stagnant.

Future forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is relatively sufficient, and downstream inquiries are light. It is expected that the nitrile rubber market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, after the 11th National Day holiday, terminal rigid demand has declined, and the hydrogen peroxide market has plummeted by over 30%. On October 8th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 1433 yuan/ton. On October 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 2126 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 32.6%.

Negative sentiment suppresses the decline of hydrogen peroxide market

After the Double Festival, the stock market in the terminal printing and papermaking industry has ended, and demand has declined. In addition, the market acceptance of high priced hydrogen peroxide has decreased, resulting in a significant drop in hydrogen peroxide prices. The mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton, while the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region dropped to 1300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for 27.5% hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region dropped to 1500 yuan/ton. The domestic price of 27.5% hydrogen peroxide has decreased by about 500 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday.

Li Bing, an analyst at Business Society Chemical, believes that the bearish situation will be suppressed, and terminal rigid demand will decline. The future market for hydrogen peroxide will still be dominated by a decline.

After the holiday, the price trend of domestic fluorite has significantly increased. As of the 8th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3718.75 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.75% in the past two days. The price is currently at a high level within the year.

Supply side: Difficulty in starting raw ore production, shortage of fluorite in stock

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be phased out, new mines will be added, and mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, As a result, it is difficult for fluorite flotation enterprises to improve their operations, and the spot price of fluorite is very tight, resulting in a significant increase in spot prices. As a result, the market price of fluorite continues to rise.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the refrigerant market is rising

In October, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has increased, and the mainstream prices of hydrofluoric acid in various regions have been discussed, rising to 11400-11800 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices are still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. The order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is relatively normal, and the sulfuric acid market price is at a high level. This has affected the market price of hydrofluoric acid, which to some extent supports the market price of fluorite. In addition, the approaching winter storage, Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers have started stocking their raw materials, resulting in a continuous upward trend in the fluorite market.

The market trend of downstream refrigerant products in the terminal market has increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and downstream procurement needs to follow up. Some enterprises have absorbed quotas in advance, and the monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small. The price trend of R22 has increased. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price of R134a is rising. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality of buying low-priced orders. Some businesses have seen price trends rise. Currently, costs are firm, and the export market has slightly warmed up for delivery. The current market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 27000-29000 yuan/ton. Supply and cost factors have driven refrigerant companies to have a clear intention to increase prices, and cost has slightly highlighted the profit space of enterprises, Positive support for the upward trend of refrigerant market, to some extent, is beneficial for the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor industries, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. In addition, the trend of the hydrofluoric acid market is rising, and hydrofluoric acid companies hold an optimistic attitude towards the later stage. The refrigerant market trend is rising, and as the temperature decreases in the northern fluorite production, there will be a decline. At that time, the tight spot situation will intensify. Business Society analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite price market is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the later stage.

In September, the styrene butadiene rubber market rose in the early stage, but fell from its high point at the end of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 28th, the price of butadiene benzene 1502 was at 13200 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.17% from 12091 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 3.18% from the high point of 13633 yuan/ton within the month.

In the first half of the month, the overall prices of raw materials butadiene and styrene have significantly increased, and the cost support for styrene butadiene rubber is strong. The factory price of styrene butadiene rubber has continuously increased significantly, and the market price of styrene butadiene rubber has risen; Starting from the middle of the month, the price of raw material styrene began to decline, and the support for styrene butadiene slightly weakened. However, downstream tire factories started operating steadily. In addition, tire enterprises are centralized in dual sector stocking, and demand for styrene butadiene rubber forms support. The styrene butadiene rubber market is operating at a high level; At the end of the month, on the one hand, the price of raw material styrene continued to decline, and the price of butadiene also began to decline. The cost support for styrene butadiene rubber once again weakened. On the other hand, approaching the end of the dual reserve period, market transactions were light, and the main suppliers of styrene butadiene rubber continuously lowered their factory prices. As a result, the high market price of styrene butadiene rubber declined. As of September 28th, the Northeast Warehouse of Jilin Petrochemical Butadiene 1502, a subsidiary of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company, has raised its price to 13000 yuan/ton, and the domestic market quotation range for Butadiene Rubber 1502 is around 13000 to 13400 yuan/ton.

In September, there was a slight fluctuation in the start of the butadiene styrene rubber plant, and the supply of butadiene styrene increased slightly in the second half of the month.

In September, the price of butadiene, the raw material for styrene butadiene rubber, rose sharply and then stabilized, while the price of styrene rose first and then fell. The overall cost center of styrene butadiene rubber in September shifted upwards.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 28th, the price of butadiene was 8710 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.21% from 7626 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of September 28th, the price of styrene was 9183 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.99% from the beginning of the month at 8746 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 5.97% from the month’s high of 9766 yuan/ton.

In September, the natural rubber market first rose and then fell, but overall it was lower than the price level of styrene butadiene rubber, which had a negative impact on styrene butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 28th, the price was at 12540 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.24% from 12386 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 2.64% from the high point of 12880 yuan/ton within the month.

Demand side: The overall stability of tire production in September has continued to demand support for rubber, and tire companies are stocking up before holidays in the middle of the month, resulting in a certain increase in rubber demand. It is understood that as of late September 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that downstream construction is basically stable, and the supply of styrene butadiene rubber is basically stable. However, the cost side has slightly decreased in the short term, but may fluctuate significantly later due to the impact of crude oil prices. Overall, it is expected that the styrene butadiene rubber market will remain high and weak in the short term. If international crude oil continues to rise significantly after the holiday, styrene butadiene rubber may rise again due to cost support.

Zinc prices continued their upward trend in August in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 28th, the zinc price was 21910 yuan/ton, an increase of% compared to September 1st, when the zinc price was 21364 yuan/ton; Compared to the fluctuating price of 19946 yuan/ton on August 17th, the zinc price has increased by 9.85%. The arrival of the Golden Nine and Silver Ten has seen a significant increase in zinc prices since late August. In September, zinc prices continued to rise and fluctuate, but the quality of the Golden Nine was insufficient, and the rise in zinc prices slowed down. In late August, zinc prices fluctuated and consolidated.

Import data statistics of zinc market

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s refined zinc imports in August were 29250.41 tons, a decrease of 61.91% month on month and a significant increase of 828.76% year-on-year. Previously, due to the strength of the domestic zinc market and the weakness of the external market, the import window was opened, and the domestic refined zinc import volume has been continuously increasing since the second quarter, reaching 76800 tons in July, setting the highest monthly record since April 2019. Imported zinc continued to impact the domestic market, but in August, the import window was basically closed, and the refined zinc import volume significantly decreased. The increase in refined zinc imports indicates an improvement in Chinese market sentiment and a resurgence of optimism in Chinese market confidence. However, in August, the import volume of refined zinc significantly decreased, resulting in insufficient quality of the “nine gold and ten silver” market and insufficient support for the future positive zinc market.

Marginal improvement in economic data for August

Under the stimulus of a package of stable growth policies, the economic data in August saw a marginal improvement. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the market expected 3.5%; The added value of industries above designated size increased by 4.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the market expects it to be 4.2%. The growth rate of retail sales of goods has significantly increased, and residents’ consumer confidence has increased. The retail sales of goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in August, an increase of 2.7 percentage points compared to the previous month. Promotional policies and events such as car shows have boosted demand for cars, with retail sales increasing by 1.1% year-on-year (-1.5%). The acceleration of housing completion has led to an improvement in post real estate cycle consumption, with furniture increasing by 4.8% year-on-year (previous value of 0.1%) and household appliances and audio equipment decreasing by 2.9% year-on-year (previous value of -5.5%). Under policy stimulus, macroeconomic growth has led to a rebound in demand for zinc, which is beneficial for the zinc market.

International Market Economy Data

The hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve boosted the US dollar index to a new high for the year, with 10-year US bond yields reaching new highs. Non ferrous metals are under pressure, and downward pressure on zinc prices remains; According to data from the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the week of September 16th decreased by 20000 after seasonal adjustments. The US labor market remains resilient, and the Federal Reserve has significantly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2023 and 2024. The US economic data is positive, while the zinc market is positive.

According to S&P IHS Markit data, the initial PMI for the eurozone in September was 47.1, with manufacturing PMI 43.4 falling short of expectations and service PMI 48.4 exceeding expectations. All three data points are in a contraction range, with manufacturing PMI below the boom and bust line for 15 consecutive months. Among them, the initial comprehensive PMI for Germany in September was 46.2, while the manufacturing PMI was 39.8, slightly higher than the previous value of 39.1; The initial comprehensive PMI for France in September was 43.5, with manufacturing industry PMI 43.6 and service industry PMI 43.9, both of which were significantly lower than expected. The two major growth pillars of the eurozone, Germany and France, are the main driving factors for the decline in economic activity in the eurozone. Although Germany’s recession has eased, France’s recession is intensifying. The economic downturn in the Eurozone has led to a bearish market for non-ferrous metals and increased pressure on zinc prices to decline.

Supply and demand situation of zinc market

In terms of supply, zinc concentrate supply is relatively loose, zinc concentrate processing fees have slightly decreased, smelters’ profits are on the high side, and the supply of zinc ingots has increased. Coupled with the opening of the zinc ingot import window, the supply of zinc in the market has increased; In terms of demand, the renovation of urban villages and the dual stocking of goods have stimulated demand in the zinc market, and the consumption of infrastructure and home appliances has strengthened. However, the real estate market has dragged down consumption in the zinc market, and the actual effect of policy incentives has not been obvious. The accumulation of finished product warehouses has forced the operating rate of galvanized pipe enterprises to decline, and the growth rate of demand in the zinc market lags behind supply, making it difficult to reverse the trend of overcapacity. The overall zinc market is oversupplied, and there are still bearish prospects in the zinc market.

Future Market Forecast

Data analysts from Business Society believe that the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, the quality of the gold and silver market is insufficient, and the positive support for the zinc market is increasing. The domestic supply and demand expectations are increasing, but the supply growth rate is faster than the demand growth rate, and the zinc market supply exceeds demand. Overall, the macro positive support is insufficient, with both supply and demand increasing but oversupply. It is difficult to determine the rise or fall of zinc prices, and it is expected that zinc prices will consolidate in a narrow range in the future.