According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 15th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6033.33 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with the current mainstream price around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The negotiation atmosphere was decent, with downstream procurement being the main demand and average demand. The enthusiasm for stocking up was not strong, and manufacturers were mainly willing to offer discounts and take orders. The number of new orders was limited.

Chemical Index: On November 14th, the chemical index stood at 862 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 38.43% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that in the short term, the white carbon black market is stable and weak.

Recent price trends of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of isooctanol in the Shandong region rose first and then fell this week. This week, the average price of isooctanol in the mainstream market in Shandong Province increased from 11120.00 yuan/ton on November 6 to 11280.00 yuan/ton on November 9, and then dropped to 11160.00 yuan/ton on November 12, a decrease of 1.06%. Overall, the market price of isooctanol increased by 0.26% this week, and the weekend price increased by 21.75% year-on-year. On November 14th, the isooctanol commodity index was 82.50, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and an increase of 134.71% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Increased upstream support and better downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong have slightly increased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose first and then fell this week. The price increased from 7090.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7270.75 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.54%. The weekend price decreased by 0.82% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, leading to increased cost support and a positive impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP market price rose first and then fell this week. The price of DOP increased from 11241.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11358.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.04%, and the weekend price increased by 13.42% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively purchasing isooctanol.

Future prospects

In mid to late November, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly increased, and downstream demand is good. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

This week (11.1-11.13), the market for chloroform fell. According to data from Business Society, as of November 13th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.50% from 2887 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have slightly increased, while the cost of trichloromethane has slightly increased; However, downstream demand is weak, transactions in the trichloromethane market are scarce, enterprises have accumulated a small inventory, and factory prices have gradually decreased.

In the near future (11.1-11.13), the domestic production of methane chloride has remained around 6.1%, and a plant in Shandong Province is planning to restart its operation.

Recently (11.1-11.13), the raw material methanol has slightly increased, the price of liquid chlorine has significantly increased, and the cost support for trichloromethane has strengthened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 13th, the spot price of methanol was 2465 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.65% from the 2425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of November 13th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has been sorted out around 600 yuan/ton.

In the off-season, the terminal only needs a small amount of support for refrigerants. Currently, the market for refrigerant R22 is declining, and the operating low point fluctuates narrowly, leading to a significant weakening of demand support for trichloromethane. In 2023, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and overall support for trichloromethane demand will weaken in the medium to long term.

According to methane chloride data analysts from Business Society, on the one hand, weak demand has a significant impact on trichloromethane, and on the other hand, there is slight cost support in the short term. It is expected that the market for trichloromethane will mainly consolidate in a narrow range in the later stage.

This week (11.6-10), the domestic polycrystalline silicon market continued to decline, with a slight slowdown in the decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, polycrystalline silicon experienced a weekly decline of 2.78%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first grade solar energy has dropped to 60-70000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, silicon material manufacturers have maintained a reasonable level of operation, gradually released new production capacity, achieved mass production, and domestic supply has steadily increased. The overall production of silicon materials this month has slightly increased compared to the previous month, while downstream silicon wafer manufacturers have started operating lower, resulting in a decrease in demand for silicon materials due to production cuts. The market is experiencing an oversupply situation. Moreover, the slowdown in the shipment speed of silicon material manufacturers has led to significant inventory pressure, forcing them to lower prices for shipments.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, the operating load of silicon wafer enterprises continues to decrease, mainly due to the inventory backlog of manufacturers in the early stage and the slowdown in downstream procurement. The inventory level of silicon wafers continues to operate at a high level to continue digesting inventory. Currently, the inventory level is gradually returning to a reasonable level, and the procurement intensity may rebound in the later stage. The quotation for silicon wafers remained unchanged this week and remained unchanged from last week. The mainstream transaction price of the M10 single crystal silicon chip is 2.40 yuan per chip; The mainstream transaction price for G12 single crystal silicon wafers is 3.40 yuan per chip.

From the perspective of the terminal demand side, the prices of battery cells and components have been inverted, and the price of battery cells has continued to decline, with a slowdown in the decline. The average price of single crystal M10 battery cells has decreased by 0.05 yuan to 0.46 yuan, while G12 battery cells have decreased by 0.01 yuan to 0.52 yuan. Although the domestic installation rate is basically stable, external orders have decreased and overall terminal demand has slowed down.

Future forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the silicon material market will continue to maintain a destocking mode in the short term, but the inventory pressure of manufacturers will gradually be eased, and the decline in the future will further narrow. Due to insufficient demand increment, weak operation may continue to dominate in the later stage.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11866 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the weekend was 11800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have weak quotations, with the factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The manufacturers’ sales are average, and market transactions are light. On the market, the main focus is on wait-and-see, with a focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in gold extraction, water purification, filter cartridge and other uses, especially in gold charcoal, where there are many inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators should be smoother. Imported carbonized materials have shown a rebound trend recently, and the industry can pay more attention.

Prediction: The activated carbon market lacks positive support, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of polyformaldehyde in Shandong have been fluctuating and consolidating recently. This week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5125.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.39% month on month and 5.67% year-on-year.

Upstream methanol situation: narrow range consolidation and operation in the domestic methanol market. Last night, the Shanxi coking plant was shut down for maintenance, and the coal price fluctuated weakly, with no cost support for the market. Domestic supply is gradually recovering, and downstream demand may change or be limited. Methanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic methanol market may be in a weak position to consolidate and operate.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and consolidating, with average cost support. Downstream procurement remains in demand, and manufacturers are shipping normally. Analysts from the business company Polyformaldehyde expect prices to decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly increased this week, with the price of potassium chloride rising from 3000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3025.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.83%. On November 6th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 96.03, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 45.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 64.86% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have fluctuated The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2800 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2900-2950 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2950-3050 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2800-2900 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate in the market increased slightly this week, from 7420.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7460.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.54%, and the weekend price decreased by 19.24% year-on-year. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly increased this week, rising from 5350.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 540000 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.93%. The weekend price decreased by 11.11% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has increased.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid November, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, with primary demand for procurement. The circulation of potassium chloride is tight, and the supply of goods at the port has slightly increased. Analysts from the Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly increase in the short term.

Analysis: On November 6th, at the beginning of the week, liquid ammonia in Shandong continued its upward trend last Friday. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the daily increase in the main production area of Shandong was 1.69%. The main reason is the continuation of tight supply. Mainly due to short-term malfunctions in the manufacturer’s equipment, partial shutdowns, and delayed supply. On Monday, large factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei generally raised prices by 100 yuan/ton. The dealer’s offer keeps up. In addition, downstream urea spot prices have been strongly affected by futures, resulting in strong performance, coupled with tight supply, and production restrictions in the Shanxi region. From a terminal perspective, agricultural demand follows up in a timely manner, while industrial demand is mainly supported by demand. However, there are not many new export orders, which may become a limiting factor for the rise of liquid ammonia in the later stage. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

Prediction: It is expected that the equipment of northern liquid ammonia enterprises will recover in the near future, and the downstream industrial demand will be average. In the short term, liquid ammonia may not have enough momentum to push up, and the possibility of a high price drop cannot be ruled out.

1、 Trend analysis

It shows that copper prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 68056.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.51% from the 67711.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 5.21%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, it has fallen by 4% and risen by 7%. Recently, copper prices have rebounded slightly after a decline.

LME copper inventory

According to the above figure, the situation of LME copper inventory accumulation has eased, with inventory falling from high levels, which has boosted copper prices.

Macroscopically: Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and the market gave a dove like interpretation of Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks, causing industrial metals and stocks, crude oil, and other assets to rise together, reflecting an improvement in investors’ risk appetite.

Supply side: Recently, there has been less disturbance in overseas copper mines, but the processing cost of copper concentrate has continued to decline, mainly affected by the demand for raw material replenishment in smelters at the end of the year. In September, the domestic refined copper production reached 1.012 million tons, an increase of 2.3% month on month and 11.3% year-on-year; Expected to reach 996000 tons in October.

On the demand side: Terminal consumption has rebounded, and some companies are buying on dips to replenish inventory.

To sum up: The recovery of macro sentiment has seen relatively stable terminal demand. The market’s dove bet on the Federal Reserve and the decline of US bond yields have pushed the US dollar down, and the metal pressure has been postponed, which further improved the prospects of metal demand. Global copper inventory levels have fallen, supporting copper prices. Copper prices are expected to experience strong short-term fluctuations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market first fell and then stabilized in October, and the prices of various wire drawing brands were overall reduced. As of October 31st, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7742.86 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -2.95% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials in October, the domestic propylene market rebounded after falling due to the impact of crude oil fluctuations. As of the end of the month, it has not yet recovered to the price level at the beginning of the month. During the month, the European and American economies and geopolitical conflicts caused fluctuations in crude oil prices, resulting in a weak market and a simultaneous decline in PDH. At the end of the month, the trend of propane was poor, with only significant stability and small fluctuations in methanol. The upstream raw materials are generally weak, with poor support for PP.

The raw material flow in all directions is weak, and the cost side’s support for PP is weakened. In terms of industry load, the average industry load in October was around 79%, which fluctuated and adjusted during the month, with the position almost unchanged compared to the previous period. The overall supply of goods is stable, but in the second half of the month, some companies experienced unplanned maintenance, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply pressure. In terms of demand, the downstream production of plastic weaving remains at over 45%, while the production rate of film and injection molding enterprises remains around 60%, and the overall position remains stable. Terminal enterprises mainly purchase according to demand, with average trading activity, and the overall market for wire drawing materials is weak.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, as of October 31, the spot price of domestic fiber PP also fell and stabilized. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7675 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -4.36% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 4.46% compared to the same period last year. Within the month, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber material were operating with a horizontal load, and the operating rate was around 37%. The demand for fiber materials in the market is orderly, and the prices of non-woven fabrics are in line with the market. The digestion speed of end products is normal. It is expected that in the short term, fiber materials may continue to suffer from cost and supply drag, and the consolidation market will continue.

In terms of melt blown materials, the recent melt blown PP market has experienced narrow fluctuations. As of October 31st, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is around 8350 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the price has increased or decreased by 0%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.39%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China has returned to normal, and the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials is generally driven. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. The main benefits of melt blown materials are concentrated on the cost side, and it is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a sideways consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market stabilized after a decline in October. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is poor, and the cost side’s support for the market is weakened. Terminal enterprises maintain their initial level of construction, and their purchasing operations tend to be weak and rigid. The current maintenance of some PP devices is about to begin, and it is expected that the PP market may be dragged down by the positive impact of supply contraction in the short term, leading to a more stable operation.