According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has recently increased. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5037.50 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.74%, a month on month decrease of 2.44%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.69%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is on the rise, while downstream acetic acid: The demand for acetic acid is increasing; Downstream dimethyl ether: demand for dimethyl ether may increase; Downstream chlorides: Increased demand for chlorides; Downstream formaldehyde: Increased demand for formaldehyde; Downstream MTBE: As some manufacturers reduce their operating load, the demand for MTBE will decrease. The demand for methanol is mixed.

After the recent rise in the methanol market, it has temporarily stabilized with good cost support. Downstream procurement remains in high demand, and analysts from Shengyishe Polyformaldehyde predict that prices may slightly increase.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has been weak and declining recently. On December 12th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 6920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26% from 7080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Asia US arbitrage space narrows, mixed xylene external market prices lower

Since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has stabilized at a low level. As of December 12th, the price of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia is between $842-843 per ton.

Mixed xylene port inventory continues to increase

The mixed xylene port inventory has increased compared to the previous period, putting pressure on the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of early December, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 31000 tons.

The overall fluctuation of crude oil decreases, and the cost support for mixed xylene weakens

Recently (12.1-12.12), international crude oil prices have been weakly volatile, providing weak support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of December 12th, the WTI01 contract closed at $68.75 per barrel and settled at $68.61 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $73.27 per barrel and settled at $76.03 per barrel.

Slight increase in demand support for mixed xylene production

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has declined, and PX external prices have fallen due to this impact. As of the 7th, the closing price in Asia is 935-937 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 960-962 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The PX supply in the Asian region is sufficient, and the domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

The market for phthalic anhydride continues to decline, with weak support for mixed xylene demand

The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is running smoothly, and Anhui Tongling ortho phthalic anhydride is starting to ship normally. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is running steadily, and Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Currently, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is maintaining over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is fluctuating at a low level, which has correspondingly impacted the ortho phthalic anhydride market. The phthalic anhydride market has slightly declined.

Domestic mixed blending demand is gradually entering the off-season, and mixed xylene demand support is weakening

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of early December, the operating rate of refinery facilities nationwide was around 690%.

Market forecast: In the short term, international crude oil will fluctuate and fall, and the cost center of mixed xylene will shift downwards. Domestic port inventories will continue to increase, and it is expected that mixed xylene will consolidate weakly in the later period.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the nitrile rubber market has been weak and slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 12th, the price of nitrile rubber was 14475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% from 14675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, while the price of acrylonitrile has slightly decreased, and the cost center of nitrile rubber has declined; The downstream gradually enters the low season in winter, with low inquiries and low market transactions. The overall price of nitrile rubber in the market is weakly adjusted. As of December 12th, the mainstream market price of Lanhua Nitrile 3305 in East China is 13500-13600 yuan/ton.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, while the price of acrylonitrile has slightly decreased, resulting in a downward shift in the cost of nitrile rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 12th, the price of butadiene was 8370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.27% from 9125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of December 12th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9862 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38% from 10000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Recently (12.1-12.12), the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants has been generally stable.

The production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China continues to decline slightly to a low level of around 5.60%. Inquiries about nitrile rubber are cautious, and the trading atmosphere on the market is slightly stagnant, leading to a weakening of the nitrile rubber market.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that currently, nitrile rubber plants are operating normally with relatively sufficient supply and weak downstream inquiries. In addition, the cost side is declining, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will be weak in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently fallen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8300.00 yuan/ton. On the 6th, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8175.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8233.33 yuan/ton, with a 1.33% increase from the lowest point to the highest point. The price has increased by 4.63% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the price of styrene in the market has dropped first and then increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fallen in the past month, and the market has bottomed out and rebounded this week. International oil prices first fell and then rose. In the early stage, the styrene market was affected by costs and fell all the way down. Later, it hit a low point and rebounded. Overall, the styrene market was greatly affected by costs.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene continued to decline this week, with Sinopec’s pure benzene price dropping at 6800 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions have also dropped by 400 yuan/ton). But by the weekend, the intention to purchase at low prices in East China was good, and the Shandong refinery’s offer stopped falling. Multiple downstream and traders entered the market to buy, with actual orders increasing in volume and overall transactions improving compared to before.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. The domestic PS market continues to decline, with an average PS quotation of 9666 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week and an average PS price of 9600 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.69% and a decrease of 3.36% compared to the same period last year. The cost of PS is weak, and the market supply is sufficient. It is expected that the domestic price of PS (polystyrene) will mainly fluctuate downward in the short term.

This week, the EPS market has fallen, with weakened upstream support and thin terminal profits. Buying follow-up is limited, and overall transactions are average. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market, with buying mainly in demand. It is expected that the EPS market will decline in the future.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has slightly declined, and the domestic ABS industry has taken on the high load from the previous period, with an average weekly operating rate of about 75%. Compared with the previous period, it has remained relatively stable. The production of the enterprise is stable, and inventory is steadily increasing. In addition, in November, the new equipment of Ineos Benling was put into operation, and current shipments continue to expand, resulting in a full supply of goods on site. The company’s loss situation continues, with high supply pressure. The supply side’s drag on the spot market continues.

Recently, international crude oil prices have started to rebound, cost support has improved, and styrene port inventories have decreased. Under the dual benefits, it is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly fluctuate and rise.

This week, the acrylic acid market remained stable with some gains. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 8th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6200.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81% compared to Monday’s price.

Factors affecting the price of acrylic acid:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on December 7th, the reference price of propylene was 7018.25, a decrease of 1.23% compared to December 1st (7105.75), indicating weak demand. Recently, the main trend in the raw material propylene market has been a slight decline, and there is still pressure on the cost side of the acrylic acid market.

Supply and demand side: Recently, the operating rate of the acrylic acid industry has slightly increased, and the supply side still has support for the market. The rise in the downstream butyl acrylate market has boosted the acrylic acid market to a certain extent. Some enterprises have raised prices, and the downstream butyl acrylate production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased. The SAP resin and water treatment production capacity utilization rate is mainly stable, and the enthusiasm for acrylic acid inquiries and procurement is average, with a focus on following up on urgent needs.

The acrylic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost support is average, while the supply side support still exists. However, during the off-season of demand, inquiries and purchases are mainly in demand, and market transactions are average. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will undergo consolidation and operation in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 7th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 158600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.11% compared to the beginning of the month and a decrease of 72.50% compared to the same period last year.

Since December, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has continued to decline. In recent times, the upstream industrial grade lithium carbonate market has continued to decline, with weak prices of upstream spodumene concentrate and a continued decline in costs. The mentality of the industry is insufficient, and downstream inquiries are generally enthusiastic, with a focus on low demand follow-up. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market has weakened.

Upstream lithium carbonate: Recently, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate have continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate on December 7th was 110000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.86% compared to the average price of 123400 yuan/ton on December 1st, which weakened support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, the current cost side continues to be weak, with limited follow-up on the demand side. Market transactions are mainly based on long-term cooperative orders, and there is still insufficient positive support. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may continue to operate weakly, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

In early December, the domestic ABS market continued to be weak, and spot prices of various brands were often lowered. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 6th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11000.00 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -1.23% from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: In December, the domestic ABS industry took on a high load from the previous period, with a weekly average operating rate of about 75%, which was basically sideways compared to the previous period. The production of the enterprise is stable, and inventory is steadily increasing. In addition, in November, the new equipment of Ineos Benling was put into operation, and current shipments continue to expand, resulting in a full supply of goods on site. The company’s loss situation continues, with high supply pressure. The supply side’s drag on the spot market continues.

In terms of raw materials: In early December, the upstream three materials of ABS showed a weak trend, with the acrylonitrile market stabilizing after a decline. The raw material prices have fallen in mid month, and the current repair is insufficient. The cost support for acrylonitrile is average; The main downstream production is still stable, but there is an expectation of an increase in the load of the acrylonitrile unit. The market’s bearish mentality has intensified. At present, there is insufficient trading and prices are weak and stagnant.

In early December, the domestic butadiene market accelerated its decline. The main production enterprise Sinopec has significantly lowered its ex factory quotation by 500 yuan/ton, creating a bearish drag on the market atmosphere. At the same time, some devices have restarted, and there is sufficient supply of goods on the supply side. Downstream industries have frequently stopped and reduced their load, and the dragging force on the demand side has gradually strengthened. The butadiene market has encountered obstacles in transactions, and supplier prices are under pressure, leading to a decline in the market’s focus.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the decline in styrene market prices in early December has widened. International oil prices continue to decline, with pure benzene, the raw material for styrene, following suit. In addition, spot resource transactions are weak, and the cost support for styrene is weak. The main downstream market is not good, with merchants mainly offering discounts for shipments. The spot trading of styrene is weak, and the market is fluctuating and falling.

In terms of demand: Recently, downstream factories of ABS, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have shown poor stocking enthusiasm, mainly focusing on digesting existing inventory. Enterprise operations tend to maintain production, making it difficult to increase demand. The wait-and-see sentiment of midstream traders has intensified, and their willingness to purchase goods is low, resulting in weak demand side.

Future Market Forecast

In early December, the overall performance of the upstream three materials of ABS was poor, and the support for the cost side of ABS was weak. The operation of the petrochemical plant is generally maintained in the early stage, and the supply pressure is maintained at a high level. The demand side consumption is poor, and merchants are often bearish about the future market. The concentration of bearish sentiment on the market has led to a complete decline in ABS prices. It is expected that the bearish fundamentals will be difficult to digest in the short term, and there may be downward momentum in the ABS market. It is recommended to closely monitor the demand side situation.

The peak season of Jinjiu has ended, and the carbon black market has entered a rapid decline channel, with a market decline of over a thousand yuan. As of now, the domestic N220 carbon black market price is between 9800-10050 yuan/ton, with a price drop of about 9.61% compared to October.

In terms of raw materials, in November, the price of high-temperature coal tar from carbon black raw materials continued to decline weakly. As of the 29th, the coal tar market quotation was 4417 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 500 yuan from early November, with a decrease of 9.85%. In the first half of this month, the price of coal tar market began to decline, with differentiated market performance in various regions. Downstream deep processing products suffered severe losses, and the operating rate of enterprises significantly declined. In mid month, downstream product prices of coal tar all showed varying degrees of decline. Some regions have already experienced a situation of inverted prices of coal tar and raw material coal tar, and their willingness to purchase raw material coal tar is relatively negative. There is a strong bearish atmosphere on the market, The continuous decline in coal tar prices has dragged down the price of carbon black in the market. Entering the end of the month, the pessimistic sentiment in the downstream market has slightly improved, and the overall purchasing enthusiasm has increased. At the end of the month, there was significant production cost pressure on coking enterprises, with an overall decline in operating rates. The supply and demand of coal tar on site were slightly tight, and downstream market demand rebounded, driving a narrow increase in coal tar market prices and strengthening support for carbon black cost.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels. In September, due to the arrival of the “Golden September and Silver October” in the downstream tire and rubber industry, the demand for raw material carbon black increased significantly, and the terminal stocking sentiment was strong. Carbon black enterprises maintained a high operating level of 65% -72% to deliver downstream purchase orders. Since October, the carbon black market price has remained high. With good profitability in the carbon black industry, carbon black enterprises have less equipment maintenance, The enthusiasm for construction remains high, and there is sufficient supply of carbon black in the market, with some carbon black enterprises in the main production areas having significantly higher inventory. The cumulative production of carbon black from January to October 2023 was 4.4328 million tons, an increase of 8.3% compared to the same period last year, with an increase of approximately 338100 tons in production.

In terms of terminals: In November, the impact of the off-season gradually became apparent, and the demand for all steel tires and semi steel tires gradually slowed down. The demand for carbon black terminals weakened, and downstream tire industry enterprises saw a decline in export orders. The operating rate declined compared to the previous period, and most tire enterprises had a certain amount of carbon black raw material inventory, which led to poor enthusiasm for purchasing carbon black.

The market trend of raw material coal tar continues to decline, and the bearish atmosphere in the market is transmitted downwards to the terminal market. Due to the impact of buying up rather than buying down, new transactions in the carbon black market are limited. The demand performance of other rubber product industries and plastic masterbatch industries is also average.

At the end of the month, the downstream tire and rubber industry’s domestic market demand is weak and flat, with a small amount of replenishment of raw material carbon black as the main focus. Moreover, due to the impact of market buying up and not buying down, the reception of carbon black is relatively passive. There is a strong bearish atmosphere in the market, with inquiries mainly focused on price suppression, and the demand side still maintains a strong demand.

Import and export data: According to customs data, China imported 28200 tons of carbon black in October 2023, an increase of 202.61% year-on-year and 14.07% month on month; From January to October 2023, China imported a total of 227300 tons of carbon black, an increase of 198.67% compared to the same period last year, with imports increasing by approximately 151200 tons.

The top three regions in terms of carbon black import quantity in October 2023 are Russia, Japan, and South Korea; They account for 77.6%, 4.5%, and 4.1% of the total import volume, respectively.

According to customs data, China’s carbon black exports in October 2023 were approximately 58800 tons, an increase of 4.51% year-on-year and a decrease of 6.83% month on month. From January to October 2023, China’s cumulative exports of carbon black reached 589000 tons, a decrease of 17.22% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume decreased by approximately 122500 tons.

The top three regions in terms of carbon black export quantity in October 2023 are Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia; They account for 30.2%, 23.2%, and 18.7% of the total export volume, respectively.

In the future, under the tug of war between supply and demand, the trend of raw materials is relatively stagnant, which may provide some support for carbon black; In the context of a sluggish market, the downstream terminal tire industry is expected to maintain a stable and consolidated carbon black market in the short term due to the multi-dimensional demand for goods entering the market.

Price trend

In November, the domestic EVA market remained stable and slightly increased, with a narrow increase in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 1st, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 12233.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.80% compared to early November.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The supply of ethylene at the raw material end remained at a low level in the first half of November. The delayed arrival of ethylene cargo at some ports and the decrease in capacity of the Panama Canal jointly suppressed the supply of goods from the mainland, and the contraction of domestic spot circulation only slightly eased at the end of the month. However, downstream industries have average starting positions and limited demand. It is expected that ethylene will maintain a strong consolidation operation in the future;

The vinyl acetate industry is currently in the off-season, with a pattern of high supply and low demand at the beginning of the month continuing, and prices are under pressure and weakening. In the middle of the month, some downstream stocking further weakened, and the trading situation was relatively weak. Although the load of overseas enterprises decreased at the end of the month and the supply of goods tightened, boosting prices, the results show that the improvement of supply and demand contradictions is limited. In November, the market for EVA raw materials fluctuated, providing moderate support for the EVA market.

In terms of supply:

Domestic EVA enterprises rebounded after experiencing a drop in load in November. The industry’s operating rate fell from around 80% at the beginning of the month to 72% in the middle of the month and began to rebound. The monthly average load was 78.40%, and the monthly production was about 173000 tons. The market supply remained abundant. The manufacturer’s ex factory pricing remains strong in the market, with reduced plans for device maintenance in the future and an expected increase in shipment and inventory. However, the overall inventory position of EVA is still acceptable, and the pricing operation of enterprises tends to be supportive of the market. Overall, the support from EVA suppliers for spot goods in November was average.

In terms of demand:

The demand side performance of EVA in November was volatile. The long-term weak demand for foam shoe materials has not changed. Photovoltaic companies saw a low rise at the beginning of the month. But with the temporary suspension of photovoltaic material stocking in the middle of the month, market buying sentiment has declined synchronously. At the end of the month, some low-end offers drove demand for adhesive films to buy on dips. The market buying sentiment has slightly rebounded, and the current buyer camp is mainly wait-and-see, with resistance towards the return of high priced goods.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA market in November showed a generally upward trend in the first half of the month and a sideways trend in the second half. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load has returned to a high level, and downstream, except for photovoltaic materials, tend to be generally weak. The new quarter orders for foam shoe materials in the future may drive some consumption, but with no expected contraction in the supply side, the market is unable to change the long short pull situation. It is expected that the EVA market will maintain a fundamental game trend in the short term and continue to consolidate and operate. It is recommended to closely monitor changes in on-site demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market significantly declined in November. On November 30th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.41% from the 7330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Since November, the arbitrage space in Asia and the United States has narrowed, and the external price of mixed xylene has decreased

Since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has stabilized at a low level. As of November 29th, the price of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia is between $846-847 per ton.

The external price of mixed xylene has decreased, and port inventory has slightly increased

The mixed xylene port inventory has increased compared to the previous period, putting pressure on the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of November 23, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 27500 tons, a slight increase from 26000 tons in mid November.

Crude oil has slightly decreased overall this month, and the cost support for mixed xylene has weakened

In November, international crude oil prices continued to fluctuate and fall, weakening support for the cost of mixed toluene. As of November 30th, the WTI01 contract closed at $75.60 per barrel, with a settlement of $75.96 per barrel; The Brent 02 contract closed at $80.37 per barrel and settled at $80.86 per barrel.

Slight increase in demand support for toluene in the production of xylene

In November, the price trend of para xylene declined. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.60% from the initial price of 8700 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.49%. In November, the supply of xylene increased, and the domestic PX operating rate rose to over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was restarted, but some units were still undergoing maintenance, resulting in an increase in spot prices. The international crude oil price trend in November declined, and PX external prices fell due to this impact. As of the 28th, the closing price in Asia was 961-963 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 986-988 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has slightly increased. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region has risen to nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has increased, and the domestic xylene market prices have declined due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

Weak market for phthalic anhydride and weak demand support for mixed xylene

The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is running smoothly, and Anhui Tongling ortho phthalic anhydride is starting to ship normally. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is running stably, and Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Currently, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is maintaining over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is decreasing, which has correspondingly impacted the ortho phthalic anhydride market. In November, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, Manufacturers of phthalic anhydride have lowered their ex factory prices, resulting in a continuous decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Domestic mixed blending demand is gradually entering the off-season, and mixed xylene demand support is weakening

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a off-season, with weak downstream inquiries, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to weaken. As of late November, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly declined to around 640%; The gasoline production of independent refineries has slightly decreased by 12000 tons compared to the previous period.

Market forecast: In the short term, the international crude oil range will fluctuate, and the cost of mixed xylene will still be supported. Domestic supply will continue to accumulate, and it is expected that mixed xylene will consolidate weakly in the later period.