Last week (April 8-14), under the influence of upstream raw material prices, the price of nylon filament stopped falling and rebounded. Sinopec raised the price of high-end caprolactam last week, and the high-speed spinning chip market for PA6 chips surged during the week, with strong cost support; The overall supply of nylon filament industry remains high, with most of the manufacturer’s equipment operating stably and sufficient inventory; The shipment situation of downstream manufacturers is poor, and their willingness to replenish raw materials is not strong. There are few negotiations on dips, and there is currently no significant improvement in demand. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have rebounded, and cost support is gradually increasing. The nylon filament market is operating at a normal level, with sufficient inventory from manufacturers and downstream markets purchasing on demand. Both positive and negative factors coexist in the market. Driven by the rise in cost, the nylon filament market prices have stopped falling and rebounded.

Market price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, last week (April 8-14), the price of nylon filament followed the rise of raw materials. As of April 14, 2024, the price of DTY nylon filament (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 18860 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decrease of 0.86%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decrease of 0.76%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) was reported at 19750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly decrease of 0.89%.

Upward trend of raw materials

Last week (April 8-14), the prices of crude oil and pure benzene in the market fluctuated at high levels, while the prices of PA6 chips in the conventional spinning and slicing market were tight and rising. The positive support from upstream and downstream markets coexisted, driving up the price trend of caprolactam in the spot market. As a result, the price of high-end caprolactam in Sinopec increased last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of caprolactam in the domestic market as of April 14 was 13167 yuan/ton, an increase of 443 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 3.49%. It is expected that the short-term caprolactam market will continue to be strong and upward.

Supply and demand

Last week (April 8-14), nylon manufacturers maintained a stable operating load and sufficient supply of goods. As April entered, downstream demand gradually recovered, but it was lower than expected. Downstream weaving factories mainly purchased according to demand, and the transaction atmosphere was mainly weak. The downstream ability to receive raw materials was limited, and some nylon filament manufacturers expressed signs of downstream demand weakening. It is expected that there will be little improvement in demand in the later stage.

Future Market Forecast

The spot market for raw material caprolactam and the market for PA6 high-speed spinning chips may still show an upward trend in prices, with good cost support. Nylon filament manufacturers have stable production and sufficient supply. The enthusiasm for stocking in the downstream market is not high, and procurement is mainly based on demand. In the short term, the situation is still strong above and weak below. Business Society analysts predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly follow the consolidation and operation of raw materials, and prices may continue to rise slightly.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, at the beginning of the week, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 5000.00 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, Shanxi’s industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was reported at 4975.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50%, a month on month decrease of 2.21%, and the current price has dropped by 10.76% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has declined, and it can be seen from the above chart that the recent potassium nitrate market has mainly experienced slight fluctuations, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. The domestic market price of potassium chloride is at a relatively high level, with acceptable cost support, but downstream demand remains weak, and the sales of potassium nitrate in the market are poor, resulting in a decline in potassium nitrate prices. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream domestic manufacturers of potassium nitrate quoted 4700-4800 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the domestic market for potassium chloride and potassium chloride has been consolidating. The market price of 60% potassium chloride crystals in China is mostly between 2300-2390 yuan/ton, while the price of 57% powder for small factories in Qinghai is based on 2050-2150 yuan/ton; Border trade areas: 62% of Russian white potassium prices are mostly between 2150-2200 yuan/ton.

Recently, some varieties of potassium chloride in the domestic market have been in a situation of no stock and no price. At present, the market supply of goods is relatively concentrated, mostly in the hands of large traders, with a strong intention to raise prices. It is expected that the potassium nitrate market will mainly experience a slight decline in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to be cautious.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 on April 11th was 5700 yuan/ton, which is 5633 yuan/ton higher than the average price on April 5th. The domestic chlorinated paraffin price has increased by 1.18%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax has fallen, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine has increased. The cost side has fluctuated, and overall support is good. Driven by cost assistance, chlorinated paraffin enterprises have raised their quotations. At present, chlorinated paraffin manufacturers are operating at low loads, and downstream procurement is required. Detailed discussions on actual orders are needed. As of April 11th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 52 national standard chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is about 5600-5800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has dropped this week. The current market trend is not good, and liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has risen this week, and the market transaction atmosphere is improving. Sales are smooth, and actual order negotiations are the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin analyst believes that the market for chlorinated paraffin has recently risen. At present, there is still support on the cost side, and the demand side is mainly based on demand. Today, the price of liquid chlorine has slightly fallen, and the market is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that the market price of chlorinated paraffin will stabilize and operate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 10th, the average market price of resorcinol was 44750 yuan/ton.

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has slightly increased this week. On April 10th, the price of pure benzene was 8720 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.69% compared to last week. Some traders are bearish in the future and actively sell their holdings, resulting in an increase in market commodity volume and average transactions.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On April 10th, the price of nitric acid was 1693 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.3% compared to last week. Market transactions are average.

M-phenylenediamine: The domestic price of m-phenylenediamine has slightly decreased this week. On April 10th, the price of phenylenediamine was 3600 yuan/ton, a 5% decrease from last week. The purchasing power of downstream customers for dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products is not strong, and downstream trading is not active.

This week, the trading atmosphere in the resorcinol market was light, with downstream tire industry construction remaining stable, and insufficient buying in the dye and pesticide intermediate markets. It is expected that the market for resorcinol will maintain stable operation.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 9th, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 36000 yuan/ton. On April 2nd, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 37900 yuan/ton, a 5% decrease from last week.

In terms of cost

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has slightly increased this week. On April 9th, the price of pure benzene was 8723 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.75% compared to last week. It is expected that there is a high possibility of consolidation in the East China pure benzene market today. Some traders are bearish in the future and actively sell their holdings, resulting in an increase in market commodity volume and weakened buying sentiment.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On April 9th, the price of nitric acid was 1703 yuan/ton, a 2.69% decrease from last week. Market transactions are average.

In terms of demand

The overall market demand is average, with weak purchasing power from customers for dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products, and less active downstream trading.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the shipment situation of meta phenylenediamine is relatively poor, with orders being the main focus. In the later stage, we will focus on market transactions. Expected weak consolidation of meta phenylenediamine prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 1st to 8th, the domestic butadiene market price remained at 11525 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 1.47% and a year-on-year increase of 35.13%. The prices of foreign and domestic production enterprises remain strong, with some bidding sources being sold at a premium, providing support for the market situation. Some devices have been restarted, but there have also been device maintenance, resulting in slight fluctuations in domestic production. The operating load of major downstream industries continues to decline, and demand expectations remain weak.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: Recently, geopolitical factors have had a greater impact on international crude oil prices than fundamentals, forming a major guide for oil prices. The current market focus is on the latest developments in the Middle East situation, with the standoff between Iran and Israel remaining the focus. As of April 5th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $91.17 per barrel, an increase of $0.52 or 0.6%.

In terms of naphtha, the international crude oil price increase supports the naphtha market, and refineries actively push for price increases; The demand for downstream ethylene continues to be weak, and there is a lack of substantial positive news at the end. Market trading is mainly focused on the local refining and restructuring, and the market mentality is cautious. As of April 8th, the benchmark price of Shangyishe Naphtha is 8514.00 yuan/ton. The cost of butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, the listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec remains at 11600 yuan/ton. The maintenance of a 70000 ton/year equipment in Lianyungang Petrochemical is expected to take place in early April and resume in mid May. A 200000 ton/year unit of Shenghong Refining and Chemical is still under maintenance. The supply of butadiene is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the main downstream products of butadiene have a stable and rising market, with ABS prices rising significantly and only nitrile rubber prices falling slightly. The inverted profits of downstream industries have led to relatively low production levels, with a small amount of inquiries from essential needs before and after the holiday, and downstream contracts being mainly digested. Negative factors affecting the demand for butadiene.

As of the closing price on April 5th, the external price of Asian butadiene remained stable: FOB South Korea reported 1425-1435 US dollars/ton; China CFR report 1445-1455 USD/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remains stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $1055-1065 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 985-995 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, there is still a positive impact on the supply side, but the profits of most downstream industries are inverted, and the overall performance of market demand is weak. As a result, butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will be weak and mainly consolidating.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the CPP market prices have fluctuated downward this week. As of April 7th, domestic producers and traders have reached 25% μ The mainstream quoted price for m’s CPP film is around 10133.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 1.78% from last week’s average price.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7785.71 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.28% compared to last week.

The price of raw material PP has slightly increased, and the operation of raw materials is relatively strong. There is support for low prices on the cost side. Film companies have low interest rates and limited room for profit margins.

In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises have a strong desire to replenish their inventory due to their urgent needs. Weak demand.

Future Market Forecast

The bearish and bullish game predicts that the CPP price will mainly experience weak fluctuations in the near future.

Recently (3.29-4.3), according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price quoted by 94% of anhydrous calcium chloride enterprises was 1325.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton from last week’s price, with a decrease of 2.39%. The market price of 94% anhydrous calcium chloride has been lowered, with a reference price of 1250-1450 yuan/ton including tax in Shandong and 1250.00 yuan/ton in the northwest market; The reference price for the Southwest region is 2400.00 yuan/ton, and the reference price for the Central South region is 2200.00 yuan/ton. This is for reference only, and actual orders are mainly negotiated.

Trend of raw material hydrochloric acid:

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of hydrochloric acid fell at the end of February, and the domestic price of hydrochloric acid plummeted by 8.11%. Although there was a rebound in early March, the overall support for the cost of calcium chloride was limited.

Downstream cement trend:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in March, construction sites in East China resumed work slowly, market demand was sluggish, clinker inventory was at a medium to high level, and sales pressure on enterprises was high. In order to ship goods, manufacturers led the way in lowering prices, resulting in a weak and declining cement market.

Market analysis:

Constrained by poor demand, manufacturers are seeking opportunities to ship and have lowered prices to stimulate outbound shipments; Affected by this, the market price of anhydrous 94% calcium chloride closely followed the downward adjustment. In terms of demand, the demand for goods was weak, stable, and cold, with overall supply exceeding demand.

Future Market Forecast:

Due to poor demand in the downstream industry of calcium chloride, coupled with sufficient supply from manufacturers, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is poor, and there is still a possibility of a downward trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 2nd, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6625.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.79% compared to March 21st (the reference price of acrylic acid was 6262.50).

Since late March, the acrylic acid market has been continuously rising, mainly due to the cessation of decline and rise in raw material propylene prices, coupled with supply side inventory pressure, cost and supply support.

Factors affecting the price of acrylic acid:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, since the end of March, the price of raw material propylene has stopped falling and rebounded, and costs have increased in the face of support from the acrylic acid market.

Supply and demand side: Since late March, some factory facilities have been shut down for maintenance, and the export market has performed well. The overall supply in the market has shrunk, and the support from the supply side is strong, which has boosted the price boosting mentality of the industry. As the end of the month approaches, some facilities in Shandong have resumed operation, and the supply side is still operating without pressure. The market’s low-priced supply has decreased, and the downstream operating load is low. Multi dimensional demand is mainly followed up, and the inquiry atmosphere is active. The mentality of purchasing high priced raw materials is still cautious.

Future Market Forecast:

From a cost perspective, the inventory of short-term raw material propylene enterprises is temporarily controllable, with downstream rigid demand procurement as the main source, which may still support the acrylic acid market. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is no pressure on short-term supply inventory, and companies have weak intentions to lower prices. The mentality of price support still exists, and downstream demand may continue to follow suit. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to changes in raw material propylene prices.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of March 31, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1062 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1 (reference price of 1052 yuan/ton for phosphate ore), the basic price increased by 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95%.

In March, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight fluctuation and upward trend. In the early stages, the phosphate ore market remained stable and consolidated after a slight increase. At the beginning of the month, some mining enterprises in Sichuan Province in China raised the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by a narrow margin, with an increase of about 10-30 yuan/ton. The overall focus of the phosphate ore market has slightly increased, driven by the exploration of rising prices in some regions.

In the latter half of the year, the domestic phosphate ore market experienced slight fluctuations. Due to factors such as geographical location and shipping situation, the phosphorus ore market in different regions of China has experienced slight fluctuations and fluctuations, resulting in a narrowing of the overall price difference between high and low prices on the market. As of March 31st, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Import and export data of phosphate ore from January to February 2024

In January 2024, China imported a total of 315800 tons of phosphate rock (including 315800 tons of unrolled phosphate rock and 100 kilograms of ground phosphate rock), an increase of 119800 tons or 61.12% compared to December 2023. The total import amount was 28.7277 million US dollars (including 28.7254 million US dollars for un milled apatite and 2250 US dollars for milled apatite), an increase of 66.19% compared to the previous period. The average import price was $90.95 per ton, a month on month increase of 3.16%.

In February 2024, China imported a total of 249100 tons of phosphate ore (including 151800 tons of unrolled apatite and 97300 tons of ground apatite), a decrease of 66800 tons or 26.82% compared to the previous month. The total import amount was 21.9829 million US dollars (including 13.8064 million US dollars for un milled apatite and 8.1765 million US dollars for milled apatite), a decrease of 23.48% compared to the previous period. The average import price was $24.91 per ton, a decrease of 2.96% compared to the previous month.

The cumulative import volume from January to February 2024 was 564900 tons, an increase of 512500 tons compared to the same period last year (52400 tons), a year-on-year increase of 978.11%.

In January 2024, China’s exports of phosphate ore totaled 3315 tons (all of which were unmilled apatite), a decrease of 21.85 million tons or 65.92% compared to December 2023. The total export amount was 1.0608 million US dollars, an increase of 15.78% compared to the previous period. The average export price is 320 US dollars per ton, a month on month increase of 92.09%.

China did not export phosphate ore in February 2024.

Prediction of future market for phosphate ore

At present, the overall trading volume of the domestic phosphate ore market is light and mild. Most downstream new orders for phosphate ore are mainly for rigid demand procurement, and the market continues to wait for demand to be released. The current supply and demand transmission is still good. According to the phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly adjust and operate slightly, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipment. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.