According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aniline market has recently experienced a decline due to cost factors. On the 11th, the raw material pure benzene was lowered by 300 yuan/ton, and due to cost factors, aniline was lowered by 200 yuan/ton. The on-site transactions are relatively stable, but the raw material pure benzene continues to experience a slight decline, leading to a strong downstream wait-and-see atmosphere and weakened purchasing enthusiasm. It is expected that the short-term market for aniline will be weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 11th, the domestic TDI market was operating steadily, with TDI domestic goods priced around 13600-13700 yuan/ton and Shanghai goods priced around 13700-13900 yuan/ton. On site offers were subject to market conditions, and actual transactions had room for negotiation. Downstream demand remains strong and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. In the short term, without favorable demand side conditions, it is expected that the TDI market will have a weak trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the aggregated MDI slightly rose on the 10th, with the mainstream price of Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) ranging from 18000-18200 yuan/ton and the mainstream price of domestic goods (PM200) ranging from 18200-18300 yuan/ton. It is reported that a large northern manufacturer has sold out all the planned MDI distribution channels in the first ten days of September, and the market supply is tight, with low sales. The maintenance of Wanhua’s 1.1 million ton MDI plant has been completed and it has resumed operation. It is expected that the tight supply situation will gradually ease, and the MDI market will maintain a strong operation in the short term.

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices continued to decline this week (9.1-9.9). As of September 9th, spot nickel was reported at 123200 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 6.43% and a year-on-year decline of 25.97%, hitting a new low since May 2021.

Macroscopically, due to mixed employment data in the United States, the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, and the slowdown in manufacturing activity in China, the world’s top metal consumer, concerns about global economic growth prospects have intensified. This has dragged down the volatility of most varieties in the London metal market and exacerbated the decline in nickel prices.

On the supply side, the domestic supply situation remains relatively loose, and market inventories continue to increase. The trend pressure has not yet eased. As of September 9th, Shanghai nickel inventories were 23778 tons, an increase of 1166 tons from the end of August; LME nickel inventory is 121656 tons, with a weekly increase of 2340 tons.

On the demand side, the replenishment heat of Jinjiu is not high, and the price of stainless steel is running weakly at a low level. On September 9th, the benchmark price of stainless steel plates in Shengyi Society was 12628.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from the beginning of the month. The demand for alloys in military and shipping industries is still acceptable, and customers have a strong need to continue.

Market forecast: The macroeconomic sentiment has intensified the decline in nickel prices, putting pressure on global inventories. It is expected that nickel prices will consolidate weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has declined this week. As of September 6th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 10750.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.46% compared to the beginning of this month (10800.00 yuan/ton).

Supply side: The market price of raw sulfuric acid remains stable, but overall, production costs for enterprises are still under pressure. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is negotiated at 10400-11300 yuan/ton, and some enterprises’ equipment is still parked and waiting for the market. The release of hydrofluoric acid production is limited, and the industry’s profits are low, resulting in increased losses.

Cost side: The domestic fluorite price trend has been weak and stable this week. As of September 5th, the benchmark price of fluorite in Shengyi Society was 3400.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.09% compared to the beginning of this month (3437.50 yuan/ton). The domestic fluorite industry is in a game situation, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Some mines have conducted safety hazard inspections, making it more difficult for fluorite mines to operate. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and the supply of fluorite sources is still tight. The price trend is declining.

On the demand side: During the off-season of demand, there is limited new demand in the refrigerant market. Due to poor demand transmission, market production demand weakens after entering the off-season of production. Refrigerant companies have poor inventory and are not proactive in purchasing upstream products. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the market for hydrofluoric acid is weak and difficult to change.

Market forecast: Upstream raw material fluorite supply remains tight; The production costs of enterprises are still under pressure. The downstream refrigerant industry has entered the off-season with weak demand, which has weakened the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will continue to weaken in the later period.

The acrylic acid market fluctuated downward in this cycle (20240828-20240904). As of September 3, the reference price of acrylic acid was 6725.00, a decrease of 0.37% compared to September 1 (6750.00). The upstream propylene market continues to experience a narrow range of fluctuations, with production companies listing prices fluctuating. Some major acrylic acid manufacturers have raised their offer prices, boosting the bullish sentiment among intermediaries. The focus of actual order negotiations has slightly shifted, and downstream markets urgently need to follow up. The enthusiasm for inquiries has increased, and the short-term market may continue to consolidate and operate.

In terms of cost

The domestic propylene market has experienced a decline in price center, with weak fluctuations in national oil prices and weak cost benefits, which has suppressed the propylene market. As the price of propylene fell to a low level in the later stage, as of September 3, the reference price of propylene was 6928.25, a decrease of 0.57% compared to September 1 (6968.25). The propylene market experienced a slight rebound in prices, but later fluctuations in a certain butanol and octanol unit affected market sentiment, causing propylene prices to gradually fall back.

In terms of demand

The price of butyl acrylate continues to decline, which weakens the support for the adhesive tape mother roll market. Due to weak support from dual raw materials within the month, coupled with no favorable driving force from the demand side, the ex factory price of tape mother rolls fell slightly by 100 yuan, and actual transactions also saw a slight decline. At present, there are many urgent small order inquiries downstream, and the overall trading atmosphere is relatively weak. Overall, there is currently no peak season atmosphere in the market, and the price of adhesive tape mother rolls has slightly decreased.

Overall

The demand side is driven by the support of other raw materials and the tight supply flow, which still provides sufficient support for the current acrylic acid market. Business analysts predict that in the future, the cost pressure on acrylic acid enterprises will increase and the recovery of terminal demand will be slow. The subsequent rise of acrylic acid and esters may be difficult to maintain, and the domestic acrylic acid market will experience narrow fluctuations next week.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, caustic soda prices rose in August. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 807 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price in Shandong was around 829 yuan/ton, with an overall price increase of 2.73% and a price increase of 4.28% compared to the same period last year. On August 29th, the chemical index was 855 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.93% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 42.98% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has increased this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 880-900 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 800-860 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali.

In mid to early August, there was no positive support, and the overall consolidation of caustic soda prices was the main trend. At the end of the month, prices rose, and caustic soda prices continued to rise. Inventory in the Shandong region remained relatively low, coupled with some downstream end of month purchase intentions increasing. In addition, recent rainfall has led to a decrease in transportation volume, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to rise in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 34th week of 2024 (8.19-8.23), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities with zero rise and fall in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing an increase are: caustic soda (0.75%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.49%), light soda ash (-0.55%), and PVC (-0.22%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.25%.

Business analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has recently risen. Recently, the inventory of caustic soda in Shandong region has remained low, and the supply of Shandong liquid caustic soda is expected to recover. However, the inventory of various factories is low, and the main downstream supply of 32 caustic soda is expected to be limited. It cannot be ruled out that there may be a price increase in the market. And downstream alumina may have support, and it is expected to mainly operate on an upward trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this month (8.1-8.30), with an average market price of 250660 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 263510 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 5.13%.

This month, tin prices have shown a significant fluctuation, consolidation, and upward trend, with a slight downward trend towards the end of the month.

At the mining end, Myanmar’s tin mines continue to shut down and face significant difficulties in resuming production in the short term. It is expected that the import volume of tin mines in China will remain at a low level in the third quarter. Since the shutdown in Myanmar, the proportion of tin ore from Africa and other regions in the total domestic imports has continued to rise, and it is expected that this trend will continue and remain stable in the coming period.

On the refining end, the willingness of refineries to hold prices has loosened, and some shipments have remained stable. From the current market perspective, due to the traditional off-season for consumption and the still high market prices, the demand in the terminal industry is still suppressed. In the short term, we will continue to observe and wait, and the number of orders received is not large. However, there has been a slight increase in trading among traders, with some first-time buyers purchasing in moderation at low prices, resulting in a slightly better trading atmosphere compared to before.

On the demand side, in the current off-season consumption environment, the stable order volume of solder enterprises is not enough to drive a significant increase in tin prices.

Overall, after easing macroeconomic pressure, the fundamental expectation for tin prices remains positive, and the price is expected to remain resilient.