1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, caustic soda prices rose in August. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 807 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price in Shandong was around 829 yuan/ton, with an overall price increase of 2.73% and a price increase of 4.28% compared to the same period last year. On August 29th, the chemical index was 855 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.93% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 42.98% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has increased this month. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 880-900 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 800-860 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali.

In mid to early August, there was no positive support, and the overall consolidation of caustic soda prices was the main trend. At the end of the month, prices rose, and caustic soda prices continued to rise. Inventory in the Shandong region remained relatively low, coupled with some downstream end of month purchase intentions increasing. In addition, recent rainfall has led to a decrease in transportation volume, and it is expected that caustic soda will continue to rise in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 34th week of 2024 (8.19-8.23), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities with zero rise and fall in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing an increase are: caustic soda (0.75%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.49%), light soda ash (-0.55%), and PVC (-0.22%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.25%.

Business analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has recently risen. Recently, the inventory of caustic soda in Shandong region has remained low, and the supply of Shandong liquid caustic soda is expected to recover. However, the inventory of various factories is low, and the main downstream supply of 32 caustic soda is expected to be limited. It cannot be ruled out that there may be a price increase in the market. And downstream alumina may have support, and it is expected to mainly operate on an upward trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.