According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a fluctuating downward trend recently. As of September 16th, the benchmark price of domestic battery grade lithium carbonate was 71683 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.07% compared to last week (September 9th), a month on month decrease of 11.94%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.33%; The benchmark price of industrial grade lithium carbonate trading company is 70016 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.57% compared to last week (September 9th), a month on month decrease of 11.56%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.63%.
Continuous release of supply side pressure
Oversupply is the core factor that suppresses prices. The second phase expansion project of Catherine Lithium Mine in Australia has reached full production capacity, with an annual production capacity jumping from 400000 tons to 650000 tons of lithium concentrate, and an additional supply of about 30000 tons of lithium carbonate raw materials per year; Domestically, after completing equipment maintenance, Jiangte Electric’s Yichun lithium mining base has stabilized its daily production of lithium carbonate at over 30 tons. Small and medium-sized lithium salt factories that were previously shut down in Sichuan, Jiangxi, and other places have also resumed work. The daily production of lithium carbonate in China has increased by 18% compared to the end of the second quarter. ​
Of particular importance is the strong expectation of resuming production in Ningde Times’ Jianxiawo mining area. Market news shows that the approval of its mining rights certificate and mining license is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to resume work and production soon.
The demand side shows structural differentiation
The performance on the demand side is mixed. The traditional main demand areas are under significant pressure, with sales of mid to low end new energy vehicles declining year-on-year. Power battery companies mainly focus on destocking. Although the production scheduling of top battery factories has increased month on month, their actual purchasing willingness is not strong. ​
At the same time, energy storage demand has become the only bright spot in the market, with the proportion of energy storage battery cell production rising to 38.5%, reaching a historical high and becoming an important force supporting demand. The low price has also stimulated some demand for replenishing inventory, and as the National Day stocking cycle approaches, downstream willingness to replenish inventory has increased. ​
Game between Policy and Cost Factors
At the policy level, the “Industry Self discipline Convention” signed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in July, which requires “sales at no lower than cost price” and guides leading companies to gradually reduce production and control output, has to some extent slowed down the speed of price decline.
The cost difference leads to significant market differentiation: Qinghai Salt Lake lithium extraction still maintains a high operating rate with a cash cost of 40000 yuan/ton,; The cost of extracting lithium from spodumene is 50000 yuan/ton, but there is still a marginal profit; However, the cost of extracting lithium from lithium mica in Jiangxi is as high as 80000 to 120000 yuan/ton, causing companies to suffer deep losses and forcing some production capacity to exit the market. Although the current price is close to the cash cost line of some enterprises (about 68000 yuan/ton), substantial capacity clearance has not yet occurred.
The lithium carbonate data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the lithium carbonate market is still in an adjustment cycle of “expansion price decline loss”, and the process of supply-demand rebalancing has not been completed. The pattern of low price fluctuations is difficult to fundamentally change in the short term, and it is expected that short-term prices will continue to fluctuate and seek a bottom.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the formic acid market has been fluctuating and weakening recently. As of September 15th, the benchmark price of industrial grade 85% formic acid in China was 3100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.73% compared to last week (September 8th), a month on month decrease of 6.63%, and a year-on-year increase of 15.89%.
The formic acid market has experienced a transition from expected support to actual weakness
From September 8th to September 10th, the market focused on the expected supply contraction brought about by the maintenance plan of Liaocheng factory. Although the insufficient downstream operating rate in China constrained domestic demand, the stable performance of the export side formed a certain support, and prices showed a temporary balance under the supply-demand game. At this stage, the market sentiment is cautious and optimistic, and traders are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude waiting for the maintenance to be implemented. ​
On September 11th, the price of formic acid was lowered by 120 yuan/ton, and the operating rates of downstream major application fields such as agriculture, leather, and chemical industry continued to be low, resulting in weak demand for terminal procurement; Secondly, the maintenance plan for the Liaocheng factory was not executed as scheduled, and the market’s expectations of supply contraction were dashed, resulting in a loss of confidence among traders and a general wait-and-see attitude towards holding money, leading to a sluggish trading atmosphere in the market.
Among the main downstream industries of formic acid, the agricultural sector is currently experiencing a seasonal adjustment period, and the demand for feed additives is growing weakly; The leather and textile industries are affected by sluggish terminal consumption, and the operating rate remains below 60%; Although there is a rigid demand in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, the procurement pace has slowed down, and the overall trend is characterized by “on-demand procurement”. The combined effect of weak demand in multiple fields has significantly reduced the domestic market’s ability to digest. ​
The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the mentality of traders has undergone a rapid change from expectations for the peak season of “Golden September and Silver October” in early September to concerns about weak demand in mid September. The formic acid market is in a weak and volatile pattern, and in the short term, the market is likely to remain in its current stalemate. It is necessary to closely monitor the progress of maintenance plans and the opportunities for breaking through downstream demand changes.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 5th to 12th, the average price of BDO in China remained at 7542 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 8.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.75%. The BDO market is operating at a stalemate, and downstream industries are experiencing an overall increase in production, resulting in an increase in raw material digestion. The factory’s shipment pace is still acceptable, and the industry has been losing money for a long time. The suppliers are actively stabilizing the market. The supply and demand negotiation game continues, and the market remains deadlocked.
On the supply side and in terms of equipment, Wanhua Chemical’s equipment has experienced a decrease in load due to unforeseen circumstances. However, some of the previously maintained equipment has been restarted and is now operating stably. The overall production of the industry has slightly increased, but the supply side support is relatively average. The supply side of BDO is affected by negative factors.
On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market is on the rise, with smooth shipments from production enterprises and overall tight market supply. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market continues to be weak. As of 10:00 pm on September 11th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang is 2285 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide has seen an upward trend, while methanol has been weakly consolidated, and the impact on BDO costs is mixed.
On the demand side, with the restart or load increase of some maintenance equipment, the downstream PTMEG, GBL-NMP, PBAT, and PU pulp industries have seen an increase in capacity utilization, resulting in a continuous increase in raw material digestion. Multi dimensional contract orders are being followed up, and the intention to purchase spot goods is weak under cost pressure. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.
In the future, the BDO market is expected to experience a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, with ongoing negotiations and a stalemate in the market. Some devices are expected to undergo maintenance, resulting in a reduction in BDO supply; And the industry continues to suffer losses, with suppliers actively stabilizing the market. The overall downstream production has increased, leading to an increase in the digestion of raw materials, but resistance to high prices has suppressed the trend of raw materials. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation and observation.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 11th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6710 yuan/ton, which is 0.15% higher than the reference average price of 6700 yuan/ton on September 5th.
2、 Market analysis
Market Aspects
This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices have slightly increased. As of September 11th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6450-6850 yuan/ton, in Yunnan region it is around 6500 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6400-6800 yuan/ton.
In terms of cost
In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the market price of raw material yellow phosphorus remained stable and stable. At present, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is sufficient, and the number of new orders in the market is limited. The demand side is relatively weak, and many adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will remain stagnant and operate in the short term.
3、 Future forecast
Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been stabilizing recently. The main focus is on the consolidation of raw material yellow phosphorus, and there is currently no significant fluctuation in cost. The phosphoric acid market has stable trading and downstream purchases are made on demand. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will remain stable in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 10th, the average market price of acetic acid was 2500 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton or 2.88% compared to the price of 2430 yuan/ton on September 1st. Since September, the domestic acetic acid market has been relatively strong, with low production rates in Henan province on the supply side and the main acetic acid production facilities still in a shutdown state. Industry players have a positive attitude, and factory prices have risen. Acetic acid prices in other regions of China have also increased, and downstream demand for purchasing has followed suit. There is not much pressure on enterprise sales, and under the influence of market mentality, acetic acid prices remained strong in early September.
The raw material methanol market was relatively strong in early September. As of the 10th, the average price in the domestic market was 2296 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.91% compared to the price of 2253 yuan/ton on September 1st. The rise in methanol futures market has driven the spot methanol market to improve, and enterprise quotations have risen sharply. However, some downstream companies have resistance to high prices, and the demand side has suppressed the increase in methanol prices to some extent, resulting in a slight increase in prices during the cycle.
The downstream acetic anhydride market has slightly increased, with the average ex factory price of acetic anhydride rising from 4092.50 yuan/ton to 4117.50 yuan/ton from September 1st to 10th, a decrease of 0.61%. The upstream acetic acid market is relatively strong, and the atmosphere of the acetic anhydride market is bullish. However, the downstream demand performance is average, and the shipment of enterprises is limited. The mentality of the market is game, and the price of acetic anhydride fluctuates slightly during the cycle.
In terms of future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that some of the domestic acetic acid maintenance facilities have not yet been restored, and the mentality remains strong. At the same time, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not high, and the supply side support is good. The downstream demand side follows up on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is good. It is expected that the acetic acid market will operate steadily and wait, and the market supply situation will be closely monitored in the future.

This week, the acrylic acid market is struggling to balance the game between “weak demand” and “high cost”. Although the overall demand side is weak, manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices near the cost line, coupled with tightening supply in some regions, which has pushed market prices slightly upward.
Market price: On September 9th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6316.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.07% compared to the beginning of this month (6250.00 yuan/ton).
Industry operating rate: On September 8th, the average capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylic acid industry was 72.84%, unchanged from the previous working day. This indicates that the supply side remains stable without any significant increase.
Production profit: The industry’s profit margin continues to be squeezed. As of August 28th, the production profit margin of the acrylic acid industry was 5.43%, a decrease of 2.26 percentage points from 7.69% the previous week (August 21st). Some factories are already near the breakeven line or even losing money.
Supply side:
The industry’s operating rate remains at a median level of 72.84%, with stable factories and overall stable supply.
The social inventory is at a moderately high level, and inventory pressure continues to exist. However, factories and cargo holders tend to have a strong sense of price support, shipping according to market conditions and offering flexible quotes.
It is worth noting that in the second half of 2025, there will still be over 600000 tons or even 740000 tons of new production capacity planned to be put into operation in the domestic acrylic acid industry (such as Shandong Lanwan, Tianjin Bohua and other facilities), which may further escalate the supply pressure in the industry in the future.
In terms of demand:
The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream main fields (such as coatings, adhesives, textile auxiliaries) is insufficient, and they generally hold a bearish or cautious attitude, mainly focusing on replenishing inventory for essential needs, with widespread price cutting behavior.
The export market is also not optimistic. In the first half of 2025, the export volume of butyl acrylate in China decreased by 13.42% year-on-year, which cannot effectively divert domestic supply pressure.
The traditional demand side (such as oil extraction, water treatment, papermaking, etc.) is hindered by the global economic downturn, making it difficult to achieve significant growth.
Cost support:
The price of raw material propylene has fluctuated recently. As of September 9th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6605.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% compared to the beginning of this month (6663.25 yuan/ton). Although the cost support is slightly limited compared to the previous period, due to the already low profit margin of acrylic acid production (5.43%), and even some factories are near the break even line, the producers have extremely limited room for profit and have a strong willingness to raise prices. This constitutes an important support for market prices.

Future Prospects
In the short term (within September), the acrylic acid market is expected to continue its volatile and strong operation, but the upward and downward space is limited. The game between cost support and weak demand remains the main theme of the market. If downstream demand does not improve beyond expectations (such as large-scale downstream centralized procurement or a significant increase in export orders), it will be difficult for prices to continue to rise significantly. The market is expected to experience a slight upward trend.
In the medium to long term, the acrylic acid industry is undergoing a transformation from “scale competition” to “technology premium era”. Top enterprises rely on technological iteration and industrial chain integration to build barriers (such as satellite chemistry and Huayi Group), while small and medium-sized enterprises face increased survival pressure due to insufficient technological investment, making it difficult to meet high-end demands (such as medical grade and electronic grade acrylic acid).
Overall, the acrylic acid market has been operating steadily in the supply-demand game this week, with prices slightly rising. Cost support and the rising price sentiment of manufacturers are the main driving forces in the current market, but weak demand and high inventory have also suppressed the upward space of prices.

At the beginning of September, the overall trend of the domestic ABS market continued to be weak, with some grades experiencing a narrow decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 8th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10037.5 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.62% compared to early September.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Entering September, the load of the domestic ABS industry has remained stable with a slight decrease. Due to the poor profit situation of the aggregation plant, some enterprises have engaged in negative load reduction operations. However, the magnitude is relatively narrow, and at the same time, Tianjin Dagu has production capacity returning. The overall dynamic of domestic facilities is limited, and the industry load level has decreased from 71% at the end of August to 69%. The average weekly production has fallen back to the level of 135000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has risen to a high of 235000 tons, with sufficient supply maintained on site. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the high inventory levels in the industry are relatively controllable. However, there is no expected contraction in the supply side, therefore, the support for ABS spot prices on the supply side is weak.
Cost factor: In early September, the upstream three material market of ABS showed mixed ups and downs, which limited the support for ABS cost side. At the beginning of the month, the price of acrylonitrile rose, and the direct factor for the increase came from the supply side. Unplanned reductions have occurred in the East China region, with Zhejiang Petrochemical experiencing a load reduction due to a malfunction at the end of August and a planned maintenance of one unit for about 10 days in mid September; At the same time, Sinochem Quanzhou will start a line of parking in early August and may fully stop in mid September. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will experience a preference atmosphere of high cost, low inventory, and reduced supply in the short term. However, the above positive support is limited and variable, and coupled with insufficient follow-up of long-term demand, the improvement of market supply and demand relationship is still difficult to sustain.
The domestic butadiene market was affected by fluctuations in the downstream synthetic rubber futures market. In early September, the butadiene market first fell, then rose, and then fell back, maintaining an overall range oscillation trend. The operating situation of domestic butadiene plants within the range is relatively stable, with little overall change. Downstream enterprises are operating well, and the market fundamentals still have some support. Under the mentality of supply and demand game, it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to maintain a narrow range oscillation trend in the short term.
The current styrene market has strong expectations but weak reality. At the beginning of September, domestic spot prices fluctuated and fell mainly, with high production levels for enterprises and a decline in raw material pure benzene. However, if the maintenance plan of future enterprises is carried out on time, pure benzene ports will continue to reduce inventory, and downstream demand will increase, the supply and demand in the third quarter are expected to improve seasonally. In the short term, without significant macro changes, the styrene market may experience weak fluctuations.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The current market still exhibits significant off-season characteristics, with no signs of improvement in terminal enterprise procurement, and the logic remains to fulfill urgent orders. At the beginning of September, there was no increase in production in the electrical casing industry, and consumption remained quiet. The cautious atmosphere in the external market remains unchanged, and the flow of goods is slow. Domestic inventory levels remain high and sideways, with continued loose supply and ample room for on-site turnover. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast

At the beginning of September, the domestic ABS market was weakly consolidating. The overall rise and fall of the upstream three materials are mixed, and the production load of the ABS polymerization plant remains stable with a slight decrease, while the demand side remains at the same level during the off-season. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. Therefore, the current resistance to the rise of the ABS market is relatively high, and it may require some time and space for consolidation. It is recommended to closely monitor the consumption situation on the demand side.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on September 5th was 1026 yuan/ton, which is 2.53% lower than the average price of 1053 yuan/ton on September 1st.
2、 Market analysis
Supply and demand situation
This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices have been weak and declining. The operating rate of coke enterprises remains stable, while the operating rate of domestic enterprises has slightly increased. At present, the supply of ammonium sulfate in the market is sufficient, while domestic and international demand is weak. Downstream on-demand procurement, mainly bearish sentiment, poor market transaction atmosphere, and difficulty in improving short-term demand.
market situation
As of September 5th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 950 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 960-1010 yuan/ton.
3、 Future forecast
An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent market trend of ammonium sulfate is mainly weak. At present, the transaction volume in the ammonium sulfate market is weak, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, and exports remain weak. It is expected that the short-term domestic ammonium sulfate market price will mainly operate weakly.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has slightly increased. As of the weekend, the average price of fluorite in China was 3281.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% from the beginning of the week price of 3268.75 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.49%.
Supply side: Normal mining operation, tight supply of fluorite
The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has increased. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operating rate of fluorite enterprises. The operating rate of some mines in the south is relatively low, and the supply of fluorite enterprises in the field is tight. Some fluorite manufacturers have appropriate inventory, and fluorite mining enterprises are raising prices and selling products, resulting in a slight rise in the fluorite market.
Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices rise, refrigerant market rises
This week, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has risen, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is negotiated at 10500-11000 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid remains at more than 50%. Fluorine enterprises maintain essential orders, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises are in a loss making state. Recently, the hydrofluoric acid market has risen, and the enthusiasm for purchasing fluorite has increased. This news has affected the price of fluorite to rise.
The downstream refrigerant market continues to rise, and the refrigerant industry is strengthening its terminal policies. Demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement, and fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the pace of purchasing at high prices is relatively slow, but the good inventory of the industry is orderly transmitted, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The trend of refrigerant market has increased, and the fluorite market has risen.
In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.
Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a positive support for the fluorite market, and the mentality of buying up rather than buying down is obvious; In addition, the hydrofluoric acid market is on the rise, but hydrofluoric acid enterprises mainly purchase on demand. Overall, in the short term, the price trend of fluorite market is mainly on the rise.

The epoxy chloropropane market showed a “V” trend in August, with an overall shift in focus compared to July. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Business Society, as of August 29th, the benchmark price of epichlorohydrin was 11600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.75% from the beginning of the month.
Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: In the first half of the month, the price of raw material glycerol remained high and firm, while propylene showed slight fluctuations, which provided some support for the cost of epichlorohydrin. However, the support was limited, and epichlorohydrin fluctuated downward. In the second half of the month, the market prices of glycerol and propylene remained high, and there was significant pressure on production costs for enterprises. Most of them continued to raise prices in response to rising costs. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 28th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6633.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.11% compared to the beginning of this month (6433.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: In early August, new production capacity was released and some equipment maintenance was completed in Shandong region, and market supply expectations showed an increasing trend. The supply side showed a relaxed state, and the support for epoxy chloropropane supply side was insufficient, causing the price center to shift downward. In late August, some facilities in Zhejiang and other regions underwent maintenance, resulting in a tight supply of spot goods in the market. Despite the release of new production capacity and an increase in some spot sales in the Shandong region, the overall tight supply situation has not fully eased, and the market price of epichlorohydrin has hit the bottom and rebounded.
On the demand side, the downstream epoxy resin industry had a production capacity utilization rate of about 50% in August. Downstream enterprises mainly focus on essential procurement, with an average trading atmosphere and few live ammunition. In late August, as the price of epichlorohydrin hit rock bottom, some companies had urgent small orders to fulfill their previous contracts. But as the price of epichlorohydrin rises to a high level, downstream acceptance of high prices is weak, resulting in poor shipments for enterprises. Currently, high-level transactions are not smooth, and the trading atmosphere is relatively average. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will remain stable in the later stage.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the high and firm prices of glycerol and propylene on the cost side have not completely eased the tight supply situation. Overall, the raw material and supply sides provide some support for the epichlorohydrin market. However, downstream demand is weak and the trading atmosphere is not smooth, which may limit the continuous price increase. It is expected that the epoxy chloropropane market price will remain stable in the later stage, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.