First, the price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of October 11, the domestic methanol market price was reported at 3,245 yuan / ton, the overall market conditions continued to be strong, the price rose 17% over the same period last year.

Second, the market analysis

Products: The domestic methanol market continued to be strong, and the ports and the mainland showed different degrees of increase. The port continued to fluctuate with the disk, and the transaction performance was general; the overall market in the mainland market was well-funded, and the sentiment was strong. At this stage, the overall reservoir pressure in the real estate area is not large, the downstream is stable, the individual olefins are increased, and the local coking is limited. The short-term methanol or the high-end cargo is continued. Domestic methanol freight has been adjusted mainly in recent days, with a range of 10-30 yuan/ton. Among them, Inner Mongolia Northern Line to Lubei freight reference 160-250 yuan / ton; South line to Lubei freight 190-210 yuan / ton; Shanxi to Lubei 110-150 yuan / ton; Guanzhong to Lubei reference 120-190 yuan / ton; Guanzhong to Shandong Southwest reference 180-200 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: Formaldehyde: Raw material methanol continues to be strong, and the cost side boosts the formaldehyde market; downstream is just needed, and the current formaldehyde market orders are mainly shipped. Linyi area concentrated 1640 yuan / ton; Zibo and surrounding concentrated 1650-1680 yuan / ton, slightly higher turnover. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market has risen sharply. Enterprises continue to be out of stock, making it difficult to pay. And Nanjing’s large installations began to overhaul, Thorpe is expected to overhaul at the end of the month, so short-term cargo is difficult to ease. Therefore, the company has a high offer. The downstream demand level is high and the negotiation is active. Dimethyl ether: The overall supply and demand atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether is still in general. A large number of downstream users have to be digested. The inventory of individual enterprises is under pressure, and the prices are stable and slightly empty. However, most enterprises still have controllable inventory and strong willingness to protect the market. The mainstream price trend continued to be horizontally consolidated.

Third, the market outlook

Business community view: In terms of positive aspects, domestic supply: coking, limited production, natural gas supply and other news are still available, supply side support is acceptable; Henan’s previous maintenance equipment has not been restored, resource supply is tight; some parts of the northwest production area have maintenance plans, Concerned about the actual dynamics; foreign supply: the international local methanol plant operating load is generally; Iran’s annual output of 1.65 million tons of methanol plant parking, plans to resume around next week; Indonesian equipment later maintenance plan; raw material end: by natural gas supply, etc., Southwest After the industrial gas price increase, the enterprise cost end support increased; futures: futures high shocks, boosting the spot market; downstream demand: an increase in the amount of olefins in the northwest, supporting the formation of methanol. For the bearish side, the demand side: under the environmental supervision, the downstream plates in Shandong and Hebei provinces started to maintain low levels, and the demand for formaldehyde was mostly just needed; the domestic MTO maintained the production of negative production, and heard that the later maintenance of an olefin in Zhejiang affected the methanol resources. Digestion; Supply surface: At present, some maintenance devices in the northwest and Shandong have been restored, and the supply of methanol resources in the region has been enlarged accordingly; attention has been paid to the resumption of maintenance projects in Henan and other places. In foreign countries, the horse oil unit has been restarted during the holiday period, and the resource supply surface has been enlarged accordingly. The methanol analyst of the business community expects that the methanol market will continue to be strong in the short term.