Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a report entitled “Oil 2019″, pointing out that the global oil market is undergoing profound changes. Between 2019 and 2024, upstream oil and gas investment will gradually recover, and the United States will gradually become the main oil supply. At the same time, the growth rate of oil demand has slowed down gradually, the demand for petrochemical industry has increased, and the supply of heavy oil for ships has declined sharply.

The IEA points out that in 2018, the U.S. oil supply increased by 2.2 million barrels per day, a record. By 2024, U.S. oil production will increase by 4 million barrels a day, accounting for 70% of global oil production. Because of the significant increase in oil production, the United States will become a net oil exporter in 2021. According to the IEA, by 2024, total U.S. oil exports will reach 9 million barrels per day, surpassing Russia and next only to Saudi Arabia.

In addition to the United States, the IEA points out that Brazil, Canada, Norway and Guyana will increase oil production by 2.6 million barrels per day in the next five years. Overall, oil production in non-OPEC oil-producing countries will increase by 6.1 million barrels per day by 2024. By contrast, OPEC’s oil production will be reduced by 400,000 barrels a day by 2024.

The IEA also said that a substantial increase in oil production required further upstream investment in the oil and gas industry. Upstream investment will continue to grow for three consecutive years. Of these, 450 billion dollars were invested in 2017 and 475 billion dollars in 2018. In 2019, the global upstream investment in oil and gas will reach 497 billion US dollars, an increase of 4% year on year.

The IEA also pointed out that the growth of global oil demand remained stable and the growth rate was slowing down. However, oil demand in developing countries is growing significantly. The IEA estimates that by 2024, 44% of the growth in global oil demand will come from China and India, with about 7.1 million barrels per day.

It is noteworthy that with the significant increase in plastic demand, petrochemical industry will promote the increase of global oil demand, among which the demand for chemical oil in the United States and China is larger. According to the IEA report, by 2024, about 50 large-scale petrochemical projects will be put into operation worldwide, boosting oil consumption by 2.2 million barrels per day, accounting for 30% of the increase in global oil demand.

In addition, as stipulated by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), global ship fuel oil with sulfur content of no more than 0.5% will be used on January 1, 2020. The IEA points out that the demand for heavy oil for ships has fallen sharply. Compared with 2019, the demand for marine heavy oil will decrease from 3.5 million barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2020.

According to the IEA, global production of low-sulfur fuel is about 1 million barrels per day at the beginning of 2020, and the price is on the high side. Shipowners may not be very active in using low-sulfur fuel, but the supply of low-sulfur fuel will gradually increase after that. At the same time, the demand for marine desulfurization devices is increasing. By 2020, about 4,000 desulfurization devices will be used in large ships all over the world.