Driven by many good news, international oil prices have recently shown a significant upward trend. By the end of the 10-day session, the price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange had risen by $0.63 to $64.61 a barrel, or 0.98 per cent. London Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose $1.12, or 1.59%, to $71.73 a barrel.

Venezuela told the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that its oil production fell to a long-term low last month due to sanctions and blackouts from the United States, Reuters reported. This strengthens the impact of global production restrictions and further tightens supply. Venezuela’s oil production in March was 960,000 barrels a day, down nearly 500,000 barrels a day from February, OPEC said in a monthly report released on October.

Others point out that as the Libyan conflict escalates, there are concerns that oil supplies from the oil-rich North African country will be disrupted and oil prices will gradually rise. The Financial Times quoted an analyst at the Australian and New Zealand Bank as saying that the risks facing crude oil supply were increasing, and that although the current battle was not near Libya’s main oil fields, “the risk of the battle spreading to the whole country is increasing.”

In addition, data released by the U.S. Energy Information Agency on the 10th showed that U.S. crude oil inventories had increased by about 7 million barrels in the previous week to a 17-month high, but gasoline inventories had fallen the most since September 2017, thus failing to improve market concerns about oil supply.

OPEC, Russia and other non-OPEC members agreed in December last year to cut production by 1.2 million barrels a day from January 1 this year. OPEC’s share of output cuts is 800,000 barrels a day, to be completed by 11 member countries outside Iran, Libya and Venezuela. A survey found that 11 OPEC member states bound by the new agreement had a production reduction rate of 135% in March, up from 101% in February.

At present, the international crude oil market is focusing on the meeting of major crude oil producers from June 25 to 26. Russian representative Dmitriyev has said that Russia hopes to increase production when it meets with OPEC in June due to improved market conditions and declining inventories. On the other hand, Emirates Energy Minister Mazruyi said on the 10th that Russia adheres to the oil production reduction agreement with OPEC and will not increase production unless it coordinates with OPEC. It is noteworthy that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are trying to push ahead with larger production cuts than the latest OPEC agreement, despite pressure from President Trump to increase oil supply. Statistics show that Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest oil producer, saw the biggest drop in oil supply, with output in March down by 220,000 barrels compared with February.

Data show that in the first quarter of this year, the international oil price has refreshed its biggest single-quarter rise in nearly 10 years. Among the benchmark oil prices in New York and London, West Texas light crude oil futures prices, which rose the most rapidly in the New York market for three consecutive months, led to a cumulative rise of more than 31% in the first quarter, refreshing the biggest single-quarter rise since the second quarter of 2009; Brent crude oil futures prices in the North Sea of the United Kingdom rose 25% in the same period, also the biggest single-quarter rise in nearly 10 years.