Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market fell sharply in April. At the beginning of the month, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 3006 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was about 2716 yuan/ton, with a drop of 9.44% in the month. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2400-2450/ton; in Shandong is about 2650-2750 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 2600-2650 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2200 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 2600-2700 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 2800-2850 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 2800-2850 yuan/ton, which is 40.83% lower than that in the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: The domestic acetic acid market continued to decline in April. Towards the end of the month, due to logistics and transportation constraints and other factors, the downstream delivery intention was not high, and acetic acid production enterprises began to sell at lower prices. The overall supply in the industry exceeded demand and the export side had not yet been well supported. Affected by the low price of acetic acid from other places, enterprises in North China are active in delivering low-price acetic acid; in East China, due to the downstream demand downturn, enterprises often downgrade their quotations; in South and Northwest China, due to logistics and transportation constraints, the delivery is flat; in Central China, acetic acid storage pressure is high, and enterprises are more profitable to deliver goods. In terms of start-up, Yankuang Cathay Pacific 1.1 million tons/year plant overhaul is expected to resume in early May; Nanjing BP 500,000 tons/year plant overhaul is expected to resume in early May; Hebei Jiantao 500,000 tons/year plant overhaul is completed within a month, and now normal production; Shanghai Wujing 250,000 tons/year plant resumes production within a month; the overall start-up rate is about 80%, and the total domestic acetic acid production is about 580,000 tons.

Industry chain: In the upstream, domestic methanol market rose first and then depressed. Affected by the spring inspection in Northwest China at the beginning of this month, the supply of methanol industry as a whole was tightened and the price went up slightly. After mid-ten days, the trend of methanol market in the mainland was weak, the mood of receiving goods in some downstream areas was not high, the demand performance was not good, and the price continued to decline. At present, the average price of acetate industry is about 2210 yuan/ton; the overall weak operation of acetate industry Insufficient, weak gas purchases in the industry, Yankuang and Huayi Ethyl Acetate Unit are about to resume production, Celanese Ethylene Acetate Unit has production plans; PTA market lacks clear good news stimulation and demand is flat, some devices will be restarted soon, short-term shock adjustment.

International: North American acetic acid market talks are weak, slightly declined in the month, currently about 555 US dollars per ton; Asian acetic acid market affected by the decline in the Chinese market, fell sharply in the month, the current quotation is 370-430 US dollars per ton; European acetic acid market performance is stable in the month, currently around 695 Euro/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic acetic acid price is low for a long time, the profit margin of enterprises is insufficient and the profit is still yielding to the shipment. Although downstream industries such as ethyl acetate, vinyl acetate and PTA are about to resume production, the demand for acetic acid is somewhat driven, but the market as a whole is still oversupply, the logistics transportation is limited during holidays, and the trade in the industry is flat. Acetic acid analysts from business associations predict that the acetic acid market will remain weak during the May Day holiday, and may rise slightly after May Day.