Political turmoil in Papua New Guinea may affect oil exploration

Sydney and Melbourne, Reuters reported that the threat of political unrest in Papua New Guinea delayed a $13 billion project that could double the country’s gas exports, causing the share price of one of its partners, the oil search company, to drop nearly 4% on Monday.

Political instability is not uncommon in Papua New Guinea, but it has not prevented mining and energy investment in this resource-rich country. However, protests that do not benefit the interests of remote areas have been plaguing the government and project owners.

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The agreement between Papua New Guinea and Daudal sets the conditions for the development of Elk and Intelope gas fields, which will fuel two new LNG production units at ExxonMobil’s PNG LNG plant.

Meanwhile, ExxonMobil and its partners are planning to build a third new unit at the PNG plant, partly fueled by another new gas field, P’nyang.

Saul Kavonic, an analyst at Credit Suisse, said political turmoil could put pressure on the government to negotiate tough terms on the pending P’nyang gas agreement and affect negotiations on development costs.

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Any delay in the P’nyang agreement could hamper the final investment decision for PNG LNG expansion, which doubled the plant’s capacity to 16 million tons a year.

ExxonMobil and its partners had hoped to start planning for infrastructure expansion in mid-2019 and make final investment decisions in 2020.

Kavonic said they were competing for projects in Mozambique, Qatar, North America and Australia to expand LNG production to fill the expected gaps in the global LNG market by 2024. ExxonMobil and Daudal had LNG projects elsewhere if political activity delayed LNG production in Papua New Guinea. Other projects can be prioritized.

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