Price Trend

In May 2019, the domestic 1_tin ingot Market shocked mainly. The average price of the domestic market was 14717.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 143412.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a drop of 2.53%.

On June 3, the tin commodity index was 73.03, down 0.02 points from yesterday, down 27.15% from the cyclical peak of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and up 70.39% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: The domestic spot price is affected by futures. The main transaction price of tin ingots has been reduced from 145500-147000 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month to 142500-144000 yuan/ton at present, with a monthly drop of about 3000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, this month’s market supply is normal, mainly low-price brands and ordinary cloud characters, Yunxi supply is slightly tight. With tin prices falling this month, traders mostly lowered their quotations and shipment enthusiasm is still acceptable, but most downstream enterprises are just in need of purchasing. It is difficult for downstream purchasing sentiment to improve under the influence of the macro-trade war, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and a general trading atmosphere in the spot market. In terms of lifting and sticking water, the average Yunzi and Xiaopai are basically stable at 800-1500 yuan/ton of sticking water, and the Yunxi sticking water is 200 to 300.

Import and export: China imported 13,056 tons of tin ore and concentrate in March, of which 12,064 tons were imported from Myanmar. It is estimated that the tin content of imports from Myanmar in March was 3,100 tons, up 244% annually and 55% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2019, the import tin metal content of tin ore and concentrate in Myanmar was estimated to be 11,100 tons, down 7% annually and 38% year-on-year.

Customs data also showed that the export of Jingxi in March was 1,307 tons, up 187% annually and 102% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2019, the export of refined tin was 2,961 tons, up 100% annually and 51% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2019 is the highest quarterly export volume since the third quarter of 2007.

According to data released by the Ministry of Trade of Indonesia on May 9, Indonesia exported 5,868.32 tons of refined tin in April, up 43% from 4,097.56 tons exported in April last year and 2% from 5,735.68 tons exported in March this year.

Domestic events:

WBMS: Global tin shortage of 4,200 tons from January to March 2019: According to a report published by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global tin market is short of 4,200 tons from January to March 2019. The total reported inventory was 1,000 tons lower than at the end of 2018. From January to March 2019, the world reported a 2,100-ton decline in refined tin production and a 2,600-ton decrease in Asian production. China’s apparent demand fell 5.8% year-on-year. In January-March 2019, the global demand for tin was 916,000 tons, a decrease of 1.9% compared with the same period last year. Japan’s consumption was 7,100 tons, down 12.2% year-on-year. In March 2019, the global output of refined tin was 304,000 tons and the consumption was 32,400 tons.

Malaysia plans to revive its tin mining industry: The Malaysian government is planning to revive its tin mining industry to the golden age decades ago, when it was the world’s largest tin producer. Dr. Xavier Jayakumar, Minister of Water, Land and Natural Resources, said the country had huge tin reserves because there had been no large-scale tin mining in the past 40 years.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In April, Indonesia’s tin exports rose 43% year-on-year. The pressure on tin supply in the international market was relieved and Lunsey fell. Sino-US trade shocks are most obvious in the solder field with the highest proportion downstream of refined tin. Further restraint of tin solder consumption, shrinkage of supply at the mine end and weakening of consumption expectation coexist. In the context of high dominant inventory and sufficient supply in the spot market, it is expected that there is still room for the future market to go down.