Price Trend
According to the data monitored by business associations (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), domestic PVC quoted 6775 yuan/ton on June 3, and domestic PVC quoted 6650 yuan/ton on June 7. The overall price of PVC dropped by 100-200 yuan/ton, or 1.87%, and the market of PVC declined weakly.
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II. Cause Analysis
Product aspect: The demand for infrastructure downstream is general this week, the delivery atmosphere of PVC spot market is not good, and the actual volume is low. At the same time, the peak period of centralized overhaul of enterprises has passed, the start-up rate has gradually recovered, and the overall stock of the market has increased. Downstream orders are not good, just need to purchase, the market atmosphere is cold. This week’s volatility of PVC futures downward, the upstream raw material calcium carbide market is weak, raw material support is insufficient, in summary, the domestic PVC market continued to fall this week, as of June 7, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range is 6600-6900 yuan/ton.
Industry: The rubber and plastic index was 694 points on June 7, unchanged from yesterday, down 34.53% from the peak of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 20.49% from the lowest point of 576 points on December 21, 2015. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date) This week commodity market shocks fell, the overall trend of the rubber and plastic industry continued to decline.
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3. Future Market Forecast
PVC analysts believe that the demand for PVC terminals is difficult to improve in the near future. Spot stock of PVC market has increased, market transactions have been cold, macroeconomic overall weak operation. It is expected that in the short term, market turbulence will be the main downward trend, and supply-demand game will dominate the price trend. It is expected that the mainstream price of PVC 5 will be 6500-6900 yuan/ton.
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