Price Trend
The average price of phosphoric acid was 4516.67 yuan/ton on July 1 and 5900 yuan/ton on July 22, according to the data list of business associations. The price rose sharply, by 30.63%, 34.45% compared with the same period last year.
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II. Market Analysis
On July 3, CCTV Focus Interview focused on the pollution problem of yellow phosphorus plants in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The tail gas from electric furnace of yellow phosphorus plants was directly discharged into the atmosphere, and wastewater containing phosphorus was discharged wantonly. As soon as the news came out, the yellow phosphorus industry in southwest China was comprehensively renovated and the start-up rate dropped dramatically. As the main source of yellow phosphorus in southwest China, the quotation rose sharply. The cost of yellow phosphorus pushed the price of phosphoric acid to the highest level. The pressure of production and marketing of phosphoric acid enterprises was great. Some enterprises in southwest, South and East China were shut down one after another. It continues to decrease.
Products: This month, the phosphoric acid index increased, mainly due to environmental inspection factors, yellow phosphorus supply shortage led to rising market prices. At present, phosphoric acid enterprises start low, the spot supply is tight, the stock of raw materials is urgent, the supply of goods is difficult to find, the high offer of the holder, the wait-and-see atmosphere of phosphoric acid enterprises is strong, and the enthusiasm of purchasing high-price sources is reduced. As the price of yellow phosphorus continues to rise sharply, the cost of thermal phosphoric acid enterprises is under pressure, most enterprises do not offer for the time being, and some enterprises have downtime plans, the main pre-order issuance, the new order negotiation is cautious, a single discussion. According to the monitoring of business associations, as of the 22nd, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid is about 5900 yuan/ton,
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Industry chain: The price of upstream phosphorus ore is stable, the yellow phosphorus enterprises start to maintain a low level, the spot supply is still tight, the quotation of yellow phosphorus enterprises is still at a high level, but the rising trend has slowed down. On the 22nd, there are enterprises trading at 20,000 yuan/ton. The downstream phosphate Market has a wide supply. At present, monoammonium phosphate is mainly used as raw materials for compound fertilizers. It has been actively traded and has increased its enthusiasm for upstream phosphate procurement. The domestic demand for diammonium is light, the international market performance is relatively stable, and the goods are basically on demand.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, on July 22, 2019, there were 14 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which more than 5% of the commodities increased, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were phosphoric acid (19.19%), acetic acid (3.70%) and acetic anhydride (2.19%). There were 14 kinds of products with ring-to-ring declines. The products with the first three declines were octanol (-1.76%), trichloromethane (-1.69%) and n-propanol (-1.19%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.24%.
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3. Future Market Forecast
Phosphoric acid analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the upstream raw material of phosphoric acid, yellow phosphorus, has slowed down, prices have fallen, downstream demand is mostly on the sidelines, procurement is not active, and phosphoric acid prices are expected to fall, showing a downward trend.