I. Trend analysis

According to the data of business associations, the market of cis-butadiene rubber in July was mainly vulnerable. At the beginning of the month, the price fell to 10,450 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price rebounded slightly to 10,637 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the overall price of cis-butadiene rubber fell by 2.41% compared with the beginning of the month.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price: The demand for cis-butadiene rubber was weak at the beginning of the month. The domestic ex-factory price of cis-butadiene rubber was reduced by 400 yuan/ton. According to the business association, the ex-factory price of cis-butadiene rubber in Daqing Petrochemical Company was 10,400 yuan/ton as of July 31.

In terms of installation, the domestic cis-butadiene rubber petrochemical plant started operation normally in July, with the overall start-up rate of 6-70%. In addition, Jinzhou Petrochemical cis-butadiene plant was restarted at the beginning of the month, which increased the supply pressure of cis-butadiene rubber. According to business associations, two sets of 160,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber units in Daqing Petrochemical Company are in normal operation with a load of 90%, 70,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber units in Qilu Petrochemical Company are in full load operation, and 120,000 tons/year high cis-butadiene rubber units in Yanshan Petrochemical Company are in normal operation with a load of 8-90%.

Raw material: The rising price of raw material supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business associations, the price of raw material butadiene rose in July, with 8,401 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 8,890 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an overall increase of 5.82%.

Import: In June 2019, China imported 441,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber, and 307.6 tons in January-June. Compared with the same period last year, the import of cis-butadiene rubber decreased by 7.7%. The import of cis-butadiene rubber increased by 3.41% and 6.28% respectively.

Demand: The main downstream tire production of synthetic rubber declined annually, to a certain extent, forming a negative impact on the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to statistics, in June 2019, the domestic output of rubber tyres was 70.279 million, down 2.45% annually, up 3.2% year on year; in January-June, the domestic output of rubber tyres was 403.745 million, down 1.0% year on year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that the rising price of raw material butadiene supports the price of cis-butadiene rubber; however, the market demand of downstream tires has not improved significantly, which is not conducive to the overall market of cis-butadiene rubber. Although the market of cis-butadiene rubber rebounded slightly at the end of the month, in the latter part, if the plant start-up has not been significantly reduced, the later period is expected The rebound is limited.