Price Trend

This week (8.19-8.23) the domestic 1 # tin ingot Market slightly declined, with the average domestic market price at 132,375 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 132,137.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 0.18%.

On August 24, the tin commodity index was 67.25, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.92% from the cyclical peak of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and up 56.91% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week, the domestic spot tin market followed the trend of Shanghai and Tin, declining. As of Friday, the mainstream transaction price was 134000-13500 yuan/ton from last Friday, which was lower than last week. On Thursday, the focus of Shanghai Tin Stock Exchange declined, but the spot market of Shanghai Tin was mostly purchased by traders at low prices, and there was no sign of a revival in downstream enterprises’purchases. Tin prices fell sharply again on Friday by more than 1,500 yuan per ton. But since Tuesday, with the downstream purchasing intention weakening again, the market is fearful of falling, coupled with exhausted demand, the overall trading atmosphere remains weak. In terms of lifting and sticking water, this week’s lifting water was up from last week, with a set of Yunxi lifting water of 1800-2200 yuan/ton, an ordinary cloud lifting water of 1000-1500 yuan/ton and a small brand lifting water of 700-1100 yuan/ton.

Domestic Events: WBMS: The global tin supply gap was 0.42 million tons from January to June 2019: According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on August 21, the global tin supply gap was 0.42 million tons from January to June 2019. The total reported inventory was 9.1 million tons higher than at the end of 2018, but this included an unexplained increase of 60,000 tons in Indonesia. Global refined tin production increased by 20,000 tons compared with January-June 2018. Asia’s output decreased by 0.08 million tons year on year. Apparent demand in China increased by 5.5% year on year. Global tin demand in January-June 2019 was 185,800 tons, an increase of 1.6% over the same period last year. Japan’s consumption was 13.9 million tons, down 6.4% from the same period last year. In June 2019, the output of refined tin was 33.8 million tons and the consumption was 34.1 million tons.

Non-ferrous industry: The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are hawkish, the data of Europe and the United States are still weak, the political turmoil and economic pressure in the eurozone are increasing, the crisis of Britain’s hard-breaking out from Europe is aggravating, the dollar index is up 98.4, and the basic metals are generally under pressure.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week’s data in Europe and the United States are still relatively concentrated. The dollar index is easy to rise, but difficult to fall. It remains strong. Most of the basic metals are under pressure. Tin prices without good support are difficult to have a larger market.