I. price trend

This week (9.16-9.20) the domestic butadiene market rose sharply. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price was 10401 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and 11 490 yuan/ton at the weekend. The domestic butadiene price rose by 10.47% in the week, rising by 16.05% annually and falling by 7.20% year on year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week (9.16-9.20), the domestic butadiene manufacturers’prices have risen sharply. Sinopec’s East China price has increased by 1200 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton; Fushun Petrochemical’s transaction price has risen to 11900 yuan/ton. During the week, due to the equipment failure of Northeast manufacturers, the export volume of goods was shrinking. In addition, the peripheral news area boosted the short-term surge of crude oil and commodities at the beginning of the week, and the supply side and news side boosted the mentality of the merchants. Northern spot prices have been increased for many times, and spot resources in East China are scarce, with the market mainly rising. Short-term prices soared sharply, the downstream part of the surge mood is obvious, further driving up the market. Although the downstream rubber market has not increased significantly, butadiene spot market is short of supply, low-price supply is difficult to find, some just need passive high-price replenishment.

Enterprises: Sinopec East China Butadiene increased its supply price by 1200 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton in a week; Liaotong Chemical Company on Monday (9.16) exported 104 tons of raw materials, the base price increased by 400 yuan/ton to 103100 yuan/ton, and the transaction price increased by 11110 yuan/ton; Fushun Petrochemical Company sold 480 tons of butadiene in a week, and the transaction price increased to 1190 yuan./ The Shenhua Ning coal 64,000 tons/year butadiene plant is in normal operation, the export price is 11,420 yuan/ton, the ring ratio is 1,750 yuan/ton; the low-load operation of the Jiutai butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit in Inner Mongolia, the listing price is 12,000 yuan/ton, the ring ratio is 1,800 yuan/ton, and it is discussed separately.

Industry chain: Downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week (9.16-9.20), domestic styrene-butadiene rubber factory prices rose 200 yuan/ton, dry rubber 1502 billed price 10800-10900 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton higher than last period; styrene-butadiene rubber 1712 billed price 9600-9950 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton higher than last period. This week, the domestic butadiene-styrene plant started with a load of 6.1%: Tianjin Lugang, Hangzhou Yibang and Fuxiang chemical butadiene-styrene rubber plant continued to shut down; Jilin chemical butadiene-styrene plant operated on two lines, Zhejiang vitamin-styrene plant operated on one line, Shenhua chemical resumed on two lines, Pristone butadiene-styrene plant operated at 40% of the low load, Lanzhou Petrochemical Company operated on two lines. The second line of butadiene-styrene plant operated, the third line of Fushun Petrochemical Company operated, and the butadiene-styrene plant of Qilu Petrochemical Company operated normally.

Cis-butadiene rubber: This week (9.16-9.20), the domestic mainstream sales company Gaoshun cis-butadiene rubber factory prices have risen; by the end of the draft, the domestic mainstream factory price of Gaoshun cis-butadiene rubber rose to 11 400-11 600 yuan/ton range, an increase of 400 yuan/ton. This week, the start-up rate of domestic high cis-butadiene rubber plant was maintained near 44%. Dushanzi and Lande Shuntine plant are scheduled to restart. The biochemical cis-butadiene plant is restarting one after another. Qixiang and Hop Shuntine plant continue to stop, so the start-up rate of high cis-butadiene is still at a relatively low level in the cycle.
3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, the spot resources in East China are relatively tight; the downstream part just needs to catch up with the rising sentiment; domestic suppliers have no inventory pressure for the time being. On the bearish side, the downstream industry has limited follow-up; the external market has not been significantly upward for the time being; downstream profits are under pressure. Supported by the supply side, the butadiene market is basically in a good direction. In addition, the market of butadiene soars sharply under the influence of some man-made operational factors in this cycle. Short-term downstream synthetic rubber with limited strength, with the rapid rise of butadiene market, business mentality gradually cautious, with the downstream chasing atmosphere cooling, high-price transactions in the market is difficult to sustain the current situation, but short-term domestic manufacturer inventory has maintained a low level, supply facing the market there is still some support. Under the combined influence, business community butadiene analysts expect the butadiene market to remain relatively strong next week, but advise cautious attention to the trading situation.