I. price trend

Recently, the 20th China made high concentration phosphate compound fertilizer production and marketing meeting was solemnly opened in Qingdao, Shandong Province. The industry people gathered in Qingdao to discuss relevant policies. At present, the phosphorus and compound fertilizer meeting has ended, and the winter storage market has also started. According to the data in the business club’s large list, on November 18, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium was 2335 yuan / ton. Compared with November 1 (2366.67), it decreased by 1.34%. On November 18, DAP commodity index was 69.65, which was the same as yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 32.37% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: due to the decline of raw material price and the squeeze of international market, the market of diammonium phosphate continues to be depressed and weak. The operation rate of the enterprise is insufficient, and some of the enterprise’s devices are overhauled. At present, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2250-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Shandong Province 2200-2400 yuan / ton, 64% of mainstream diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2500 yuan / ton, and 64% of mainstream diammonium in Anhui Province 2250-2450 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in recent years, the domestic sulfur market has been weak, the downstream demand is weak, the terminal purchase enthusiasm is weak, there is no news on the external market, the port inventory has not been reduced but continues to increase, and the industry is bearish on the future market. From the perspective of demand, the supply and demand performance is weak, and the negotiation is stagnant. Port inventory increases, consumption is slow, market trading is still cold, on-demand procurement based, both sides wait for information guidance. Phosphorus ore market has been in a weak state of consolidation, demand is still weak, on-site trading is weak, enterprises sporadically supply orders from old customers, continue to digest inventory based, new orders are scarce, and the pressure on mine inventory has been large. Under this sales pressure, most of the mining enterprises and dealers make corresponding adjustments to the quotation of high-grade phosphorus ore, and the quotation of mining enterprises has also increased There is a fall.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 45th week of 2019 (11.11-11.15), there are 19 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are hydrochloric acid (19.18%), chloroform (12.55%) and R22 (4.80%) There are 27 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, with 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products decreased were epichlorohydrin (- 9.22%), aniline (- 7.50%), titanium dioxide (- 3.58%) This week’s average was 0.18%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of diammonium phosphate of business association think that the market price of diammonium raw materials is declining, and the international market is decadent, with few good news. After the phosphate compound fertilizer meeting, the market is not clear, dealers lack of confidence, waiting for the policy to come out. Now diammonium has been in the low position, and there is limited space to fall. It is expected that the market of DAP will be stable in the later period. It is suggested to pay attention to the market changes in real time.