In November, the domestic acetone market was crazy. In only one month, the acetone market (East China market as an example) rose by 2000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the market in East China increased by 50%. Now, the negotiation in East China market has reached 6350 yuan / ton. The picture above shows the trend of factory listing in East China

The contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, the port inventory is low, and good demand is the main reason for the crazy upward trend of acetone. The specific analysis is as follows:

First of all, the arrival of goods at the port has decreased. In November, the ship load was 50000 tons, but in fact, due to the weather and other factors, it didn’t arrive at the port on time. The arrival cargo was relatively scattered, and many sources of cargo had been prepared for the downstream. By the end of last week, the port inventory was less than 10000 tons.

Secondly, under the influence of related products phenol, the enterprise did not start at full load. In recent years, phenol market trend is very poor, reaching the lowest point in the year. Under the impact of the Middle East goods source, port inventory is high, and the pressure on traders and manufacturers to ship is large. Despite the frequent decline of the market, the market is still in a cold trading situation. Although there are bottom reading comments in the industry, most people still operate cautiously, after all, the market is extremely cold. Although phenol ketone factory can limit production and offer price, the crazy acetone market is hard to give up. Nearly 90% of the total construction started.

Finally, the demand for new downstream devices increases. In the downstream MMA industry, Chongqing Yixiang 90000 T / a plant was put into operation in October, and the demand for acetone by manufacturers is around 5000 t / month, which forms a greater support for the demand for acetone. Another is isopropanol industry. The 50000 ton / year unit of Qingdao helica is put into operation. According to the unit consumption of isopropanol and acetone, the demand for acetone is also relatively objective. The downstream of acetone is supported by new units, which forms a strong pull for the increase of demand for acetone.

Future market forecast: the rapid upward movement of acetone will increase the downstream cost pressure. At present, the downstream is basically in a state of loss: take isopropanol as an example, the unit consumption ratio of isopropanol by acetone method is 1:1. According to the isopropanol cost calculation, the profit of isopropanol is close to a negative value. Now, the acetone market is far from the edge, many isopropanol factories have suspended the offer, and the enterprise’s delivery pressure is relatively high It is expected to reduce the negative production in the later stage. The downstream product BPA industry is affected by the supply and demand side, and the situation of oversupply continues to plague the market. The intention of the end epoxy resin replenishment is not high, which can not play a supporting role for BPA, and it is difficult to get rid of the weak situation in the short term. MMA is constrained by the demand side, and the market focus continues to decline. MIBK industry is driven by raw materials, but the theoretical profit loss of the enterprise is relatively serious, so it is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. On the whole, the crazy upward acetone market has brought fatal impact on a large area of downstream industries, and the cost pressure is too large. In the later stage, some downstream enterprises can only reduce the negative production. Therefore, although the risk of upward acetone does not stop at present, they need to operate cautiously in the later stage, and they need to be cautious when entering the market to stock up. In the near future, it is still necessary to pay attention to the port throughput and market enterprise installations. It is expected to maintain high-level operation this week, and the current negotiation range in East China is 6350-6400 yuan / ton.