I. price trend

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market is on the rise. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic liquefied gas (Shandong) market was 3896.67 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average price was 3960 yuan / ton, up 1.63% in the week, and the price was 4.35% lower than the same period last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic liquefied gas market overall went up, and the market trading atmosphere improved. As of 6 December. The price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. is 4060 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 4300 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3910 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3900 yuan / ton, from Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3900 yuan / ton The factory price of Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 4150 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic gas market in China is dominated by stable civil use and rising raw materials in the Northeast market; the market in South China continues to rise with a fair atmosphere; the market in East China slightly pushes up with a strong mentality; the inventory in the market along the river keeps rising without pressure; and the market in Shandong is positively rising. At the beginning of the week, although CP rose in December, which was good for the market, the international crude oil fell significantly, which suppressed the price rise, but the manufacturers’ mentality of supporting the market was obvious, and the price rose steadily. In the later period, crude oil rebounded sharply. In addition, the cold weather terminal consumption accelerated, the downstream market entered the market actively, the market transaction atmosphere improved, and the price rose strongly.

Saudi Aramco’s December CP announced a slight increase in propylene butane. Propane rose to $440 / T, up $10 / T from last month; butane $455 / T, up $10 / T from last month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, among which there are 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are WTI raw oil (5.91%), MTBE (5.62%) and gasoline (5.07%). There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, the first two products falling are liquefied natural gas (- 0.58%) and fuel oil (- 0.22%). This week’s average was up or down 1.71%.

III. future forecast

According to the liquefied gas analyst of Business Club: at present, crude oil rebounds sharply, and CP rises in December, which is good for the market. In addition, affected by seasonal factors, the weather is cooling down, the downstream replenishment cycle is shortened, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is high. At present, the manufacturer’s shipment is relatively smooth, and the inventory is not under pressure. It is expected that there will still be upside next week.