I. price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of the business agency, the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on December 1 was 1950 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of powdered monoammonium on December 11 was 1950 yuan / ton, with the same price. On December 11, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 65.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.27% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 5.12% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on December 1 was 2255 yuan / ton, while the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on December 11 was 2250 yuan / ton, down 0.22%. The diammonium phosphate commodity index on December 11 was 67.11, unchanged from yesterday, a new low in the cycle, 34.83% lower than the highest point of 102.98 on October 8, 2011. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Monoammonium: since December, the domestic monoammonium phosphate Market is still in a downturn, and the enterprise operating rate is about 40%. The factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui Province is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the commencement is stable. In Hubei Province, the factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and that of 60% powdered ammonium is 2000-2100 yuan / ton. The market in Henan Province has maintained stable operation, and 55% of ammonium powder has been quoted at about 1850 yuan / ton, with stable start-up. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2050 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is about 1900 yuan / ton.

Diammonium: since December, the domestic diammonium phosphate Market has continued to be weak, with an enterprise operating rate of about 40%. At present, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Hubei Province offers 2200-2300 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Shandong Province 2250-2350 yuan / ton, 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Yunnan Guizhou Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton, and 64% of the mainstream of diammonium in Anhui Province 2300-2450 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the near future, the overall stable and weak operation of phosphorus ore market is the main factor. Affected by upstream and downstream demand and on-site inventory, the price may fluctuate slightly to stimulate the atmosphere on the site. The domestic sulfur market is weak in downward consolidation, the downstream demand is weak, the terminal purchase enthusiasm is weak, there is no news on the external market, the port inventory continues to increase, the consumption is slow, the industry is bearish on the future market, and the negotiation is mainly stalemate. The domestic liquid ammonia market continued the trend of last week, and continued to explore the high slightly. At present, the local ammonia volume is still tense, and there is no pressure for enterprises to ship, but the manufacturers with large ammonia volume mainly stabilize the price.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 17 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are R22 (5.77%), liquid ammonia (3.72%) and organosilicon DMC (3.17%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were propylene (- 3.85%), isopropanol (- 3.63%) and polysilicon (- 3.34%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.

III. future forecast

Analysts of business association ammonium phosphate think that since winter, the market of ammonium phosphate has been in a downturn. The trend of raw materials is not good, the cost support is weak, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the trading volume is weak. It is expected that the weak trend of ammonium phosphate market will be hard to change in the later period, and the low consolidation will continue to be the main trend. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of raw material price and terminal demand.