1、 Price trend

Recently, the market of butadiene in China has dropped sharply. As of February 13, the price of butadiene was 6848 yuan / ton, down 15.57% month on month and 30.94% year-on-year, according to the monitoring of business club.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. Fushun Petrochemical’s goods were exported, and the price was reduced to 5500 yuan / ton. Although the spot transaction improved, there was no sign of centralized resumption in the downstream latex industry, and the market supply and demand continued to be weak. Merchants often refer to the transaction price of Fushun for offer. The delivery price in Shandong Province is 6200 yuan / ton, and the price in East China is 7000 yuan / ton. It is hard to have a good support for short-term supply and demand fundamentals, and merchants are still short-term.

In terms of market, the butadiene market in Shandong Province is mainly on the lookout. Some export manufacturers have no latest price for the moment. Downstream enquiries are cautious. Middlemen send offers for reference of about 6200 yuan / ton. Some businesses still wait for the latest price guidance of manufacturers. The butadiene market in East China is still expected to be weak, and some manufacturers and tank farms in the region have abundant supply, but the downstream inquiry has not been followed up obviously. The expectation of the merchants is short, and the intention of active offer is not high. The sporadic delivery price continues to be around 7000 yuan / ton, and the slightly lower price is also heard.

In terms of enterprises, the unit load of some enterprises has been reduced, and Sinopec’s butadiene price in East China has been reduced by 1000 yuan / ton to 7000 yuan / ton in total; the butadiene price of Liaotong chemical is 6610 yuan / ton, down 700 yuan / ton, and the weekly sales volume is 338 tons; the 390 tons of Fushun Petrochemical are exported within the week, and the turnover area is 5520-5600 yuan / ton; the load of 70000 tons / year butadiene unit in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia has been slightly reduced, but there is no clear report yet The price and delivery are negotiated in a single way; Dalian Hengli 140000 T / a butadiene plant maintains a load operation of 40-50% in a week, and a small number of superior products are exported; Zhejiang Petrochemical 200000 t / a butadiene plant has a load of about 50-60% in a week, and some qualified products flow into the downstream factories in the region.

Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: domestic mainstream styrene butadiene market offer slightly adjusted. The main price of Qilu 1502e in North China is around 10300 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu 1502e in East China is around 10600 yuan / ton.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: Sinopec North China cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber factory price in 10400 yuan / ton; North China Qilu cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber mainstream market price in 10300 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

In the short term, it is difficult for the downstream latex industry of butadiene to return to work intensively. In addition, some manufacturers of synthetic rubber have reduced their equipment load, and the basic contradiction between supply and demand of butadiene still exists. Although sporadic low-cost goods have stimulated the turnover to improve, under the influence of abundant supply, the butadiene analysts of the business agency predict that the weak situation of domestic butadiene market is difficult to change in the near future, and it is suggested to pay attention to the latest price guidance of the supplier.