1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by calcium carbide method), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on February 17 was 6675 yuan / ton, down 0.93% compared with 6737.5 yuan / ton the previous day, up 5.12% compared with the same period last year. On February 17, the PVC commodity index was 84.58, down 0.79 points from yesterday, down 15.42% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 45.15% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: at present, the downstream enterprises are slow to return to work, the demand is low and hard to vibrate, the inventory pressure of PVC production enterprises is increased, the operating rate is declining, and the transportation is limited, so the PVC spot market has few trading volume and limited trading volume, and some production enterprises do not report the closing price, the market is mixed with many empty spaces, and the PVC price is under pressure. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of February 17, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6600-6950 yuan / ton. At present, the main stream of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 6320-6450 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 6300-6450 yuan / ton. The main stream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 6300-6350 yuan / ton. The real deal can be negotiated.

Futures: PVC main v2005 contracts were narrowed, closing 6300 yuan / ton, compared with – 20 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume 81044 hands, – 1901 hands; positions 193366 hands, – 730 hands, basis 50 yuan, – 30 yuan; 5-9 price difference – 100 yuan, – 15 yuan.

Industrial chain: in recent years, the European and American ethylene market is generally in a downward trend. The overall ethylene market demand is poor, and the market continues to decline. The industry pays more attention to the supply and demand after the festival. In terms of calcium carbide, the capital return of each factory is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, the production capacity is increased, and the overall operation of calcium carbide market is stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there is a total of one kind of commodities in the price up and down list of bulk commodities, among which rubber and plastic rose month on month, and natural rubber (0.08%) rose. There are 10 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were pet (- 8.82%), LLDPE (- 5.52%), PP (- 4.81%). This week’s average was – 2.2%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: the downstream enterprises return to work slowly, the PVC manufacturers’ operating rate has declined, and the transportation is limited, and it is expected that the PVC market will be weak in the short term.