1、 Price trend

The domestic butadiene market is still low this week. According to the monitoring of business agency, the market price of butadiene in China was 6626 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 6393 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.52% in the week, down 20.92% in the month on month, down 31.43% year on year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the domestic butadiene market continued to be in a weak situation. Although the logistics and downstream latex factories resumed work in the middle and later stages of the week, the raw material inventory of the manufacturers was relatively abundant, and the market was short of follow-up of new orders. The short-term external offer and the spot supply of the tank farm are abundant. There is no obvious price difference between the north and the south in order to stimulate the circulation of goods. The supply side of the market is still under pressure. The downstream inquiry is slightly cautious. Some high price offers in the North lack of real single support. In terms of price, the delivery price in Shandong Province is 6350-6600 yuan / ton, and the price in East China is 6500-6600 yuan / ton for reference, and the price is negotiated on a single basis.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s butadiene supply price in East China decreased by 200 yuan / ton to 6800 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; the butadiene price in Liaotong chemical industry was 5710 yuan / ton, down 900 yuan / ton on a month on month basis; Dalian Hengli’s 140000 ton / year butadiene plant was in normal operation, some of which were sold abroad on spot, with the price reference to 5710 yuan / ton; and Jiutai’s 70000 ton / year butadiene plant in Inner Mongolia was in normal operation, with the quotation up to Thursday at 6100 yuan / ton on a month on month basis The price of CFR in mainland China fell 10.34% to 780 USD / ton on a month-on-month basis, and it was heard that there were lower price sources in Taiwan.

Industrial chain: styrene butadiene rubber: this week, the mainstream factory price of domestic styrene butadiene rubber sales companies gradually fell, with a cumulative decline of 400-800 yuan / ton, only PetroChina North China has not followed the last wave of decline. The start-up rate of styrene butadiene unit is around 5.10%; the styrene butadiene units of Jihua, Fushun, Lanhua and Bridgestone are all in normal operation; the styrene butadiene units of Qilu, Yangzi and Shenhua continue to reduce the negative operation; the styrene butadiene unit of Weitai is restarted and in operation at present; the first line of dynaso in northern Liaoning currently produces solution polymerized styrene butadiene rubber, which is planned to be scheduled to the end of this month; in addition, Tianjin Lugang and Hangzhou Yibang And Fuxiang chemical SBR plant continued to stop.

Cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber: this week, the ex factory price of gaoshun cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber, a mainstream domestic sales company, fell by 400-800 yuan / ton compared with the previous period; only CNPC North China sales company failed to keep up with the drop of 400 yuan / ton on February 18, which needs close attention in the later period. The operation rate of domestic high CIS polybutadiene rubber plant was maintained around 5.80%, and the inventory pressure of some enterprises was relatively high, and the operation rate declined slightly. The overall operation rate of CIS polybutadiene rubber plant had little change compared with last week.

3、 Future forecast

On the positive side, the price difference between butadiene and synthetic rubber is relatively large, and the downstream profits are considerable; the low market volatility attracts the downstream to seek for bargains and make up positions; the downstream latex industry has resumed work and recovered logistics. On the negative side, there is no price difference between the north and the south market, the supply of goods meets resistance in circulation, the supply of goods on the outside market is abundant and the market is declining, the supplier’s equipment operates normally, the supply is stable, the spot cost of the tank farm is high, and the delivery is slow. The price difference between butadiene and synthetic rubber has been greatly widened, and the market of butadiene has been supported by the bargain hunting of sporadic manufacturers. At the same time, the resumption of work and logistics in the short-term latex industry may effectively stimulate the spot circulation of butadiene. However, some manufacturers still have a certain stock of raw materials, and the production of butadiene industry is stable, and there is abundant spot supply in the tank farm. At the same time, the external market is under pressure, so it is difficult for the short-term market to have a sustained positive boost. Butadiene analysts of the Business Association predict that if the northern export sales increase in the next cycle, the business situation is still weak, so it is recommended to pay attention to the information of suppliers and the guidance of downstream construction.