1、 Price trend

In early March, monoammonium phosphate rose continuously, with a maximum increase of 7.02%, and later prices began to fall. On March 1, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 1993 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the average ex factory price of domestic powdered monoammonium was 2083 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 4.52%. On March 31, the monoammonium phosphate commodity index was 69.73, unchanged from yesterday, down 30.85% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.84 (2011-09-13), and up 12.30% from the lowest point of 62.09 on September 19, 2017. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: in the first ten days of March, the fertilizer market is in the peak season of sales. The prices of raw sulfur and liquid ammonia continue to rise, and the demand in the downstream is increasing. Multiple advantages lead to the price of monoammonium phosphate rising. In the last ten days of March, due to the large supply and reduced demand, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises had sufficient stock and weakened demand. The price of monoammonium phosphate began to fall after the market rose in the early stage. At present, 55% of powdered ammonium in Hubei Province has a factory quotation of 1900-2100 yuan / ton, and 60% of mainstream powdered ammonium has a factory quotation of 2150-2250 yuan / ton. The market in Henan province maintains stable operation. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 1900-2100 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 58% powdered ammonium is 2050-2150 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Shandong Province is 1900-2100 yuan / ton, and the price is stable. The ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Sichuan is 1900-2100 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in March, the overall operation of domestic phosphorus ore market was basically restored, the recovery of Guizhou phosphorus ore market was relatively fast, and the operation rate in Yunnan was still low. At the beginning of the month, some phosphate ore enterprises in Guizhou raised their initial high-end phosphate ore market quotation by 20-30 yuan / ton. By the middle of March, foreign public events occurred, the market logistics and transportation were affected to a small extent, the export of downstream end products of phosphate rock was limited, new orders were reduced, and the overall price of phosphate rock market fluctuated down slightly, with a decrease range of 10-25 yuan / ton. In March, Hubei phosphate fertilizer manufacturers started one after another, and the supply of phosphate fertilizer increased. The spring ploughing of fertilizer improved the demand for raw sulfur and effectively boosted the overall confidence of the market. In addition to the price stabilization of individual refineries, refineries in other regions have increased their prices according to their own shipping conditions. In the later stage, the domestic sulfur market was stagnant, the downstream market entry enthusiasm was not high, the actual single information was limited, and most of the procurement was on demand and wait-and-see. In March, the trend of compound fertilizer stabilized first and rose in the middle, and in the later period, the favorable factors weakened and the market remained stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 3 kinds of rising commodities, 2 kinds of falling commodities and 0 kinds of rising and falling commodities in the price list of phosphorus chemical industry in March 2020. The main commodities that rose were monoammonium phosphate (4.52%), diammonium phosphate (1.14%), phosphate rock (0.83%); the main commodities that fell were yellow phosphorus (- 6.78%), phosphoric acid (- 0.62%). This month’s average rise and fall was – 0.18%.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of monoammonium phosphate of business association, due to the strong demand for phosphate fertilizer in the peak season of spring ploughing in March, the raw material sulfur also increased significantly. The demand of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is large, and the price of monoammonium phosphate is high. With the weakening of favorable factors, the price was stable and down in the later period. It is expected that monoammonium phosphate market will remain stable in April.