1、 Price trend
In May 2020, the domestic market of 1 × 1 tin ingot fluctuated and rose. The average price of domestic market at the beginning of the month was 133637.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month was 137912.50 yuan / ton, up 3.2%.
On May 29, the tin commodity index was 70.25, up 0.2 points from yesterday, down 29.93% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.25 (2011-09-05), and up 63.91% from December 09, 2015′s lowest point of 42.86. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
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2、 Market analysis
In May, the futures market in Lunxi, Shanghai and tin all showed an upward trend, with a relatively small increase in Lunxi. Influenced by the convening of the two sessions and the tight supply of tin ore, the price of hunxi reached the highest point of 134740 yuan / ton on 29th, 8000 yuan / ton higher than that of last month, with a monthly increase of about 6%.
The spot market follows the trend of Shanghai and tin this month. The overall shock was dominant 18 days ago. The short position reduction and long position increase of the main contract of Shanghai and tin on the 19th pushed up the price of Shanghai and tin significantly. The spot market stabilized after following the trend and the price rose sharply. Then, with the impact of the decline of London and lead, Shanghai and tin fell sharply under pressure. The spot market entered the high consolidation period, and the downstream was affected by cost factors Ring, maintain the wait-and-see mentality just need to purchase. There is no demand support, and the spot market is not strong enough. By the end of the month, the mainstream price of the spot market was 136500-138500 yuan / ton, up 3.20% on a monthly basis.
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there are 17 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the nonferrous sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 22.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities rising are silver (15.57%), dysprosium oxide (8.68%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (7.04%). There are five kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products are praseodymium oxide (- 3.28%), antimony (- 2.69%) and titanium concentrate (- 1.69%). This month’s average was up or down 2.6%.
The business club predicted that the favorable policy impact brought by the closing of the two sessions will further affect the metal market. On the 29th, some metal prices rebounded, and the domestic industry will gradually enter the right track. The overall market environment will be better later. At present, the spot tin market demand is relatively weak, the market trading atmosphere is limited, the early traders are still afraid of high mentality, and the overall need to purchase is the main factor. In June, the market It will continue the trend of the 29th, and there is still room for upside in the medium and long term of the 07 and 08 contracts. It is expected that the spot market will be dominated by short-term high volatility, with a small increase space.
Relevant data:
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China’s refined tin production fell in April due to a shortage of concentrate supply: China’s refined tin production fell 10.7% in April from last month due to insufficient tin concentrate imports and a reduction in production at a smelter in Southwest China, Antaike said on May 7. More than 90% of China’s tin concentrate imports are dependent on neighboring Myanmar, which has been short of workers during the outbreak.
Indonesia’s refined tin exports in April decreased by 28% year on year: according to data released by the Ministry of trade on May 8, Indonesia exported 4220.59 tons of refined tin in April, 28% less than 5868.32 tons in the same period of last year, and 7% less than 4539.19 tons in March. Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of refined tin..
WBMs: from January to March 2020, there will be a supply shortage of 7100 tons in the global tin Market: according to the monthly report released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on May 20, there will be a supply shortage of 7100 tons in the global tin market from January to March 2020. The reportable inventory is 91 thousand tons less than that at the end of 2019. From January to March 2020, the reportable output of refined tin in the world decreased by 11000 tons year on year. Production in Asia fell by 11500 tons. China’s apparent demand is down 17% from the same period last year. From January to March 2020, the global tin demand is 83200 tons, a decrease of 8.7% over the same period of last year. Japan’s consumption was 5800 tons, down 18% from the same period last year. In March 2020, the global refined tin production is 24200 tons, and the consumption is 30700 tons.
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