Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, the ABS market rose on August 11, and most spot prices in the market increased significantly. As of 4:00 p.m., the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 13150.00 yuan / ton, with a one-day increase of 3.14%, a decrease of 1.94% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene, most of the recent domestic styrene continued last month’s de inventory operation. At the far end of the cost side, crude oil oscillates and the prices of pure benzene and ethylene are temporarily stable, and there is no clear direction for the price trend of styrene. The downstream demand for styrene did not improve, the factory consumption follow-up was insufficient, and the orders were mainly purchased on demand. It is reported that the storage cost of styrene port has increased recently, increasing the pressure of de stocking. Business mentality is negative, giving priority to profit reduction. It is expected that styrene disk will be weak in the near future.

ABS upstream acrylonitrile, last month, the domestic market price of acrylonitrile turned positive, the recent domestic market stability small movement. At present, the supply and demand side of the factory is in a high level, and the operation cost of the factory is also in a high level, and the operation cost of the factory is also under the pressure of fluctuation. Downstream just need to buy mainly, stock operation is cautious, but the factory recently cut production again, stimulate the market bullish mood. Business shipment is OK, inventory is low, acrylonitrile market is expected to continue stable.

The domestic market of butadiene showed an obvious upward trend last month, with strong internal and external market performance, limited domestic supplier volume and less than expected market supply; meanwhile, affected by the weather, some ships in East China delayed unloading, and the spot supply was temporarily tight, which boosted the supplier’s price and accelerated the rise of the market. But with the rapid upward market, the market cautious atmosphere gradually. In recent years, with the arrival of ships to Hong Kong and the increase of supply in Northeast China, the high transaction price was hindered, the market dropped slightly, and the butadiene market fluctuated slightly. According to the monitoring price of business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 4473 yuan / ton in the first week of August, and 4451 yuan / ton in the weekend, with a decrease of 0.50% during the week. The price was 28.15% higher than that of the same period of last month and the same period of last year It was down 54.99%. At present, the supply side of butadiene is still favorable, and the trend is expected to be stable in the near future.

At the beginning of August, the domestic ABS price continued the slow decline of last month, and the domestic ABS petrochemical plant operating rate remained at a high level. Recently, the supply situation has been tightened again. The market rose on August 11, with most brands increasing by 200-600 yuan / ton. In addition, ABS inventory has been at a low level, and the on-site spot circulation just picked up at the end of last month. In August, due to the continuous overseas public health events, the arrival of imported goods in Hong Kong decreased. At present, the merchants are in a positive attitude, and the downstream factories are trying to prepare goods, but they are still cautious.

Future forecast:

Business agency analysts believe that: August 11, ABS market rose significantly, the prices of all brands have a certain range of adjustment. Cost side of the upstream three material recent trend is not the same, the cost side support is general. At present, the spot supply of ABS is tightening again. The lower reaches hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the reduction of ABS supply, and take the goods tentatively and operate cautiously. The resistance of the merchant to ship is reduced, and the space of real single profit is not large. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will continue to rise in the near future.