1、 Price trend
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This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly, and the quoted price rose from 1763.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1796.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 33.34 yuan / ton or 1.89%, down 2.62% from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, and the urea commodity index on August 14 was 83.57.
2、 Market analysis
From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week rose slightly. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1820 yuan / ton, which was 40 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1770 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 40 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of open water urea was 1800 yuan / ton this weekend, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.
From the perspective of market demand, the upstream liquid ammonia has dropped slightly in recent years, and the cost support is general. After the printing mark has passed, the market trading atmosphere is weakened, the domestic demand is light, and the middlemen are cautious in receiving goods. Affected by the mentality of buying up but not falling, the purchasing intention of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises decreased significantly. International: on August 14, India’s RCF urea bidding results were announced: the price is CFR east coast 290.5 US dollars / ton and West Coast 289 US dollars / ton, medium scalar is about 950000 tons.
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From the perspective of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea have been up and down this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) has dropped slightly from 2490.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2470.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 0.80%, 20.06% compared with the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia rose slightly this week, from 3066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3083.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.54% compared with last year Over the same period, the year-on-year drop of 5.13%, overall, this week’s urea cost support is weak. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly, from 5333.33 at the beginning of the week to 5366.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.63%. The downstream rubber plate factories are generally enthusiastic about urea procurement, which has a negative impact on the urea price.
3、 Future forecast
In the middle of August, the market price of urea in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. Urea analysts of business club believe that the current agricultural demand is low, the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement, the support for printing mark has passed, and the market trading atmosphere is weakened. It is expected that the short-term urea market will mainly fluctuate and fall.
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