1、 Trend analysis
According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 8th, the spot nickel price was 119350 yuan / ton, down 0.53% from the previous trading day, 4.94% higher than the beginning of the year, and 15.62% lower than the same period last year. Shanghai nickel opened at 119260 yuan, and the price fluctuated narrowly after opening, closing at 119610 yuan, up 0.45%. LME3 nickel closed 0.13% higher at $15220 by the deadline.
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2、 Market analysis
The US dollar rebounded and metal upward was hindered. The recent continuous release of nickel iron production capacity in Indonesia caused supply increase concerns, and nickel prices slightly reversed. Nickel fundamentals remained stable for the time being, but stainless steel prices tended to peak at high levels, and nickel prices continued to increase upward pressure. Domestic nickel ore inventory is still at a low level, and the tight supply pattern of nickel ore has not been alleviated. However, the Philippines is about to enter the rainy season, and the ferronickel plant has a high enthusiasm for inventory preparation, so the nickel ore price performance is firm. Domestic demand for new energy vehicles is also gradually recovering. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe is growing rapidly, and the nickel price may be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the third quarter. If the new production capacity of stainless steel in Xiangyu, Indonesia is put into operation on schedule, or the domestic 300 series stainless steel production remains at the current high level, the excess supply of ferronickel in the fourth quarter is limited. Stainless steel inventory continued to decline, 300 series stainless steel production continued to increase, stainless steel supply tightened to support steel prices.
3、 Future prospects
Post market forecast: the short-term fundamentals of nickel are fair, and the focus is on the centralized production of ferronickel in Indonesia. Since the end of the second quarter of Indonesia Industrial Park, several production lines have been put into operation, but the amount of ferronickel returned to China is temporarily less than expected. The Philippine rainy season is superimposed on the peak consumption season in September, and nickel prices are expected to remain high in the short term.
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