1、 Price trend

 

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According to the large data list of business associations, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on November 16 was 5016.67 yuan / ton, up 0.33% compared with the beginning of the month, 3.08% on a month on month basis, 6.23% lower than the beginning of the year, and 6.25% lower than the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

In November, the phosphoric acid market showed a steady upward trend. Due to the increase of electricity price in normal water period, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus went up, driving the price trend of phosphoric acid. Recently, the price of yellow phosphorus has stabilized, and the fluctuation of phosphoric acid has decreased. The increase is in the range of 50-100 yuan / ton, and most of the enterprises are waiting-and-see. At present, the market demand is insufficient to follow up, some enterprises are under pressure to ship goods, and new orders are generally traded. Therefore, there is no effective driving force for the upstream, and the enthusiasm for pursuing the rise of the downstream is not high. The price of phosphoric acid is facing a stalemate for the time being. With the requirements of atmospheric monitoring and environmental protection in autumn and winter, the spot price of yellow phosphorus is still tight, and the future market is still expected to rise, which may continue to drive the phosphoric acid Market soaring.

 

According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 16, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5016.67 yuan / ton, the price in Sichuan was 4850-5400 yuan / ton, and the price was stable; the quotation in Beijing was about 4700 yuan / ton, the price was temporarily stable; in Hubei, the price was about 4900-5100 yuan / ton, the price was rising; in Tianjin, the price was 5 About 600 yuan / ton, the price is temporarily stable; the price in Jiangsu is about 4800 yuan / ton, which is stable and wait-and-see, and the prices in various places are stable and rising.

 

Regional product specification date price (yuan / ton)

Phosphoric acid content in East China: 85% Nov 16 5390-5400

Phosphoric acid content in Southwest China: 85% Nov 16 4900-4920

Phosphoric acid content: 85% in Central China

 

The phosphoric acid industry chain showed an upward trend. On November 15, the phosphoric acid industrial chain index was 90.91, which was the same as yesterday, 14.44% lower than the highest point 106.25 (2012-03-22) and 17.15% higher than the lowest point 77.60 on July 02, 2019. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

 

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For yellow phosphorus, in the first ten days of November, the price of domestic yellow phosphorus market was stable and rising. At present, the overall trend of the domestic yellow phosphorus market is relatively stable, manufacturers mainly issue early orders, and the yellow phosphorus market spot is slightly tense. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 16500 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation in Guizhou is relatively stable at around 16200 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 16500 yuan / ton. Due to the rising cost, the yellow phosphorus enterprises intend to raise the price, but the downstream acceptance is not high.

 

Since the beginning of November, the domestic phosphate ore market has been running steadily. During this period, it is heard that some mining enterprises in Guizhou and Guangxi intend to increase the ex factory quotation of phosphate ore, but due to the small increase of orders in the short term, it has not been implemented on the spot. Until the 10th, some mining enterprises in Guizhou slightly raised the ex factory price of medium and high-end phosphate ores by 10-20 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is stable and the overall high-level sorting operation is carried out.

 

Ammonium phosphate, at present, the supply of monoammonium phosphate is declining, and the price is rising. DAP mainly sends export orders and downstream compound fertilizers are purchased on demand. It is expected that in the short term, monoammonium will continue to maintain the upward trend, and diammonium will increase steadily or slightly.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The phosphoric acid analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that the current market demand is not followed up enough, some enterprises are under pressure to ship, and the new orders are generally traded. Therefore, there is no effective driving force for the upstream, and the enthusiasm for pursuing the rise in the downstream is not high. The price of phosphoric acid is facing a stalemate in the short term. With the rising expectation of yellow phosphorus in the future, the market price of phosphoric acid may continue to soar.

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