The discovery of the new coronavirus variant in the UK has triggered a heated discussion in the market and affected the commodity market as well. Yesterday, the rubber was seriously impacted. Japan’s big board exchange said that the May rubber contract closed down 6.8% to 231.2 yen / kg, the biggest one-day drop since early November. Domestically, the main contract of Shanghai Rubber fell 7.11% to 13905 yuan / ton. Concerns about the new coronavirus mutation have led investors into a safe haven mode and have sold their positions to take profits. In addition, the demand of rubber market was also affected by the red warning level 1 emergency response of heavy pollution in Shandong and other places.

“In fact, environmental restriction mainly affects the operating rate of tire factories. As of December 17, the operating rate of semi steel tire was 60.45%, and that of all steel tire was 61.79%, which was at the low point since June this year, 10% and 12% lower than that of the same period in 2019, and the overall operating rate was at a low level in five years. From this point of view, the impact of environmental protection and production restriction is relatively large. ” But the impact is more short-term, phased and even seasonal, Zhu said. From the perspective of demand, winter itself is the off-season of tire demand, and the operating rate will decline. In addition, the shortage of export containers affects export orders, and also has a drag on short-term demand.

For the future market, Zhu ziyue said that we can analyze the market situation of Jiaozhou from two time dimensions. “Before the Spring Festival, China is in the stop cutting period, the further accumulation range of Ru warehouse receipts is limited, the precipitation in overseas production areas is relatively rich, but not more than the level of 2016, and has decreased recently. It is expected that the supply will increase, and the terminal demand will gradually weaken, showing strong supply and weak demand as a whole. After the Spring Festival, the domestic cutting period or face weather, pests and other factors disturbance, downstream construction demand recovery, is expected to be weak supply and strong demand. In addition, we should pay attention to the effect and progress of the vaccine injection, as well as the virus mutation. The price driving force in 2020 mainly comes from the epidemic situation, and the market driving force in 2021 will also come from the epidemic situation. But in addition to the epidemic itself, we should also pay attention to the disturbance of fundamental factors. ” She said.