Aluminum prices fluctuated upward in August, rising 0.65% this week The average price of aluminum ingot spot market fluctuated at a high level in the middle and early August, with an operating range of 19700-20100 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1.02% in the month. According to the data of business agency, on August 13, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China was 20060 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.65% compared with the average market price of 19930 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. During the week, it fell first and then rose, and the overall operation was volatile. Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 27.55%. Main melody of supply side: increase in the proportion of power and production restriction The proportion of limited production in Yunnan has increased, and Guangxi, Guizhou and Inner Mongolia have also entered the ranks of limited production. The investment expectation of new production capacity during the year has been reduced to less than 1.3 million tons. At the end of July, Yunnan Shenhuo announced that the production limit was upgraded from 25% to 30%, and 35 units were forced to stop the tank again, with a total of 145 units stopped, and the operating capacity decreased to 550000 tons. In early August, Yunnan Aluminum was not spared. The shutdown situation was similar to that of Shenhuo. The shutdown ratio of aluminum plant reached 30%, and the operating capacity decreased to 1.87 million tons. Expected factors: it is difficult to resume production in Guangxi and Yunnan in September. In the second half of 2021, the supply and demand of electricity in flood season is expected to be basically balanced, the supply may be insufficient in some periods, and there is still a gap in electricity and electricity from November to December. At the end of the year, Yunnan entered the dry season again, and the restart cost of electrolytic aluminum cell is high. In order to avoid frequent switching, it is expected that it will be difficult for Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant to resume production on a large scale from September to October. Downstream processing enterprises are also affected In early August, some aluminum processing enterprises in Zhengzhou and Luoyang, Henan Province received a notice from the Power Bureau under their jurisdiction. Large industrial enterprises limited power by 50% according to the situation, and all industrial enterprises below 10kV stopped production, which is expected to last for three weeks or more. The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises fell by 0.6% to 67.8%. The peak load shifting and power rationing in Henan again led to the weakening of the operating rate. According to the category of aluminum materials, the production of aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises is reduced due to insufficient power supply. At the same time, due to the epidemic situation in Zhengzhou, the transportation is blocked, and the willingness of foreign vehicles to go to the epidemic area is very low. From the perspective of social inventory of aluminum ingots, the downstream is relatively unaffected and the overall supply is tight. Future forecast August is in the off-season, and domestic demand is expected to slow down, which poses a certain downward risk to aluminum price. However, the production capacity is reduced due to the cost and power restriction. At present, the market inventory is small, which supports the aluminum price. Ye Jianjun, an analyst of business society, believes that the current price range of 19500-20500 yuan / ton is a steady-state shock range formed by the market game. It is expected that the aluminum ingot price will still operate around 199000 yuan / ton in the near future. On the whole, the short-term downward risk will be weakened and the high shock operation will still be maintained.