According to the monitoring data of the business society, at the beginning of 2021, the average ex factory price of domestic zhengc market was RMB 11800 / T, and at the end of the year, the average ex factory price of n-propanol was RMB 8883 / T, with an annual decrease of 24.72%.

It can be seen from the monthly k-pillar trend chart and annual price comparison chart of n-propanol monitored by business society that the domestic n-propanol market fluctuated greatly in 2021. Compared with the market in previous years, the n-propanol market rose and fell significantly in 2021. The main decline was in the middle stage of 2021. The decline of n-propanol in April was 16.17%, which was the largest month in the whole year. On July 16, The average ex factory price of n-propanol is 6900 yuan / ton, which is the lowest price of n-propanol in the year, and the low price once created a historical low price of n-propanol in recent ten years. The biggest increase of the whole year was at the end of the year. N-propanol increased by 24.14% in October, which was the largest month of the whole year. The maximum amplitude in 2021 is 41.53%.

In the first quarter, in January 2021, after the new year’s day, the domestic n-propanol market was cold at a high level. On the one hand, the external market of raw ethylene fell, which loosened the cost support of n-propanol. On the other hand, after the early preparation, there was insufficient follow-up of new orders downstream, and the market price of n-propanol continued to decline, with a monthly decline of 6.78% in January. In February, the downstream demand for n-propanol was still tepid, and the market of n-propanol was weak. In February, n-propanol decreased by 1.23%. In March, in terms of cost, the rising market of raw ethylene gave n-propanol more support. N-propanol finally ushered in the first rising month of 2021. N-propanol increased by 3.73% in March and decreased by 5.65% in the first quarter.

In the second quarter, the domestic n-propanol market fell sharply. In April, the on-site trading of n-propanol continued to be cold, there was little downstream demand, the n-propanol gradually accumulated in the warehouse, the sales pressure increased, and the n-propanol market fell sharply, with a decrease of 16.17% in April. In May, the domestic n-propanol market continued to move forward with a heavy load, the market price continued to fall, the downstream demand was relatively fixed, and the market was always difficult to have effective support. In May, n-propanol fell by 8.57%. In June, with no significant improvement in the overall n-propanol market, the shock decline of raw ethylene once again affected the mentality of the industry. The high-end quotation of n-propanol continued to decline, and the high-low price difference narrowed. In June, n-propanol decreased by 7.42%. The overall decline in the second quarter was 29.04%.

In the third quarter, in July, the n-propanol plant of Shandong large factory was put into operation, and the on-site supply increased, which had a certain impact on the market situation. The n-propanol holders sold out one after another, and the market price of n-propanol decreased. At the end of July, the domestic ex factory price of n-propanol fell to 7100 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of n-propanol has fallen to the low point of nearly a decade, with a decrease of 10.13% in July. In August, the market finally warmed up slightly, the trading atmosphere improved, the inquiry increased, the factory received orders well, and the quotation gradually increased. In August, n-propanol increased by 4.23%. In September, the market rose first and then fell. In the first ten days, the atmosphere of propanol was good, and the price continued to rise steadily. In the last ten days, under the energy-saving environment of power restriction, the downstream operating rate decreased, the demand decreased, and the market fell, with a positive increase of 0.65% in September. The overall decline in the third quarter was 2.11%.

In the fourth quarter, in October, the parking lot of Shandong n-propanol plant reduced the supply in the yard and the spot supply was tight. Under no inventory pressure, the quotation of n-propanol suppliers increased significantly. At the end of October, the average ex factory price of domestic n-propanol was 9600 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 24.14%. In November, the support given by the demand side to n-propanol was always limited, and the market of n-propanol continued to lack action. In November, n-propanol rose and fell back, with an overall increase of 0.34%. In December, the demand performance of n-propanol continued to be poor, and the market of n-propanol fell sharply again. After the average ex factory price of n-propanol fell below 9000 yuan / ton, the market basically stopped falling and stabilized, with a monthly decline of 9.97% and an overall increase of 14.87% in the second quarter.

2021 summary and 2022 market forecast

Through specific analysis, it can be seen that in 2021, the trend of n-propanol market is mainly affected by both supply and demand. Among them, what can affect the trend of n-propanol in a longer term still needs the support of downstream demand. Changes in supply can bring short-term market changes to the market, but without the positive improvement of demand, the market is difficult to operate at a sustainable high level, At present, the downstream demand for n-propanol in China is still relatively fixed. Therefore, in 2021, the change of supply side will have a wide impact on the market. According to the current information, the operation of domestic n-propanol units will not change much in 2022, accounting for no increase in new production capacity. Therefore, the n-propanol datagrapher of the business society believes that the n-propanol market will be stable before and after the Spring Festival in 2022, The floor price fluctuation space is limited.