Price trend

In June, the domestic ABS market remained generally stable, with spot prices stabilizing slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10525 yuan/ton, a decrease of+0.96% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: The load of the ABS industry rebounded after a decline in this month. In the early stages, there were more enterprise maintenance and self reduction, which partially relieved the high operating rate. In the second half of the month, the trading volume rebounded, and the operating rate recovered slightly. At the end of the month, the industry operating rate was about 82%. However, the on-site spot supply is still relatively abundant, and the relief of supply side pressure is limited. The overall inventory has been depleted due to short supply and oversold in the middle and late stages, and the supply side has regained support for the spot market.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream materials in June was poor. Among them, the raw material acrylonitrile market is weak and declining, while the cost side propylene price first drops and then rises. Overall, it is weak and consolidation, and downstream enterprises are starting to operate lower. The impact of cost and demand on acrylonitrile is relatively short. Although acrylonitrile production slightly declined in June, transaction volume decreased and prices weakened slightly.

In June, the price of domestic butadiene plummeted in a stepwise manner. At the beginning of the month, some maintenance equipment resumed production, and production increased. At the same time, imported cargo gradually arrived at the port, putting pressure on the market supply side. In the middle of the day, the external market remained weak, with cautious downstream inquiries and poor high-end trading. At the end of the month, news such as the production of Sanjiang was bearish in the market, while the butadiene market was bearish, resulting in a stalemate and consolidation after the market fell.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fluctuated and decreased in June. The main reason for the decline is the fluctuating international crude oil prices, the continuous decline in the pure benzene market, poor cost support, downstream demand mainly, weak gas buying, and the main decline in the styrene market. In summary, the styrene market in June was mainly affected by costs and weak spot demand.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average stocking enthusiasm, and the operating rate is generally at the off-season level. The manufacturer has a cautious wait-and-see attitude, but there are some low-priced short selling operations in the market, but overall demand improvement is limited.

Future Market Forecast

This month, the upstream three materials of ABS fell simultaneously, providing poor support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has decreased compared to the beginning of the month, and the market inventory has been partially digested. However, the demand side support is limited, and the overall weak and rigid demand pattern is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue this stalemate.