1、 Price Trend of Mixed Xylene for Half Year 2023

According to data monitoring from Business Society, mixed xylene fluctuated and rose in the first half of 2023, reaching its highest point in mid to late April, and then gradually declined. At the beginning of the year, the price of mixed xylene in China was 6710 yuan/ton. On June 30th, the price of mixed xylene in China was 7340 yuan/ton. Within six months, the price of mixed xylene increased by 630 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.39%. The highest price in half a year is around April 19th, with a price of 7880 yuan/ton. The lowest price for the year is around January 2nd, with a price of 6630 yuan/ton. The difference between the highest and lowest prices is 1250 yuan/ton.

2、 Domestic production price of mixed xylene in the first half of 2023 (monthly K-column chart)

According to the monthly K-column chart of mixed xylene, the months of significant increase in mixed xylene in the first half of 2023 were January, March, and April, while the months of significant decrease were May.

3、 Review of mixed xylene trends in the first half of 2023

The trend of mixed xylene in 2023 can be divided into two stages, with the first stage fluctuating and rising, and the second stage falling broadly.

The first stage (January April): In the crude oil market from January to April, the supply side maintains expectations of tightening, international crude oil prices skyrocket, and cost support continues to strengthen; Against the backdrop of high inflation and interest rate hikes, there is still a risk of recession in the European and American economies. However, after China fully liberalizes epidemic control, demand in Asia gradually increases, and international crude oil fluctuates in the high range; Many countries have announced the implementation of voluntary oil production reductions, and global crude oil demand remains growing; As the weather warms up, people’s willingness to travel and activity radius increase, and gasoline demand gradually increases; The low inventory of ground refining and the expansion of market terminal consumption are positive for the mixed xylene market, which is jointly boosted by multiple positive factors, and the mixed xylene market has continued to rise.

Phase 2 (May June): With the deepening of macro risk aversion sentiment, the trading atmosphere in the energy market is cautious; The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories in the United States has deepened market concerns about economic recession, and the oil market has developed in a volatile manner; As the weather warms up, gasoline demand is improving, but downstream demand for fine chemicals is weak, providing limited price support. Gasoline is mainly in demand, and support for mixed xylene is limited; The inflation level in the United States is still higher than expected, and Powell stated that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates twice within the year, and does not rule out the possibility of continuous rate hikes; The European Central Bank also stated that it is unable to end the interest rate hike cycle in the short term, and overseas demand expectations remain weak against the backdrop of high interest rates, limiting the upward space for oil prices. The mixed xylene market is a long short game.

4、 Price trend of mixed xylene industry chain in the first half of 2023

In the first half of 2023, both the upstream and downstream of mixed xylene showed an overall upward trend, with a cost based crude oil increase of 12.97%. The cost based support was acceptable, with mixed xylene increasing by nearly 10% in the first half of the year. The downstream PX market is relatively good, while OX is slightly weak.

5、 Prospects for mixed xylene trends in the second half of 2023

There is still a possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July, and market risks remain; China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America; Saudi Arabia and Russia have voluntarily reduced production by 1 million barrels and 500000 barrels per day in August, supporting oil prices; It is expected that the demand outlook in the second half of the year will remain weak, while the volatile trend of crude oil remains unchanged. The mixed xylene industry is cautious, and mixed xylene continues to fluctuate and consolidate. It is expected that the price trend of mixed xylene will continue to fluctuate along the cost and supply sides in the future. Pay attention to the dynamics of mixed xylene units, downstream operating rates, demand, and the impact of crude oil and external market trends on the price of mixed xylene.