According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 20th, the price of lead 1 # was 17240 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the lead price of 17230 yuan/ton on December 16th, with an increase of 0.06%.

This week’s market analysis

Due to the drop in lead prices last week and the improvement in downstream stocking sentiment, fundamentals may provide some support for lead prices. This week, lead prices have slightly increased within the range.

Supply side

This week, the processing fee for domestic lead concentrate remained the same as last week. The processing fee for imported lead concentrate will be reduced to -25 US dollars per dry ton. In November, the import volume of lead concentrate was 94900 tons, a month on month decrease of 41.96% and a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.56%. From January to November 2024, the cumulative import volume of lead concentrate was 1.144 million tons of metal, a year-on-year increase of 4.22%. The operating rate of primary lead has decreased. In terms of recycled lead, due to air pollution and environmental policies, some recycled lead enterprises have reduced production and the weekly operating rate has decreased.

Demand side

At the end of the year, large lead-acid battery companies increased their operating rates to boost demand, but the consumption in the terminal battery market gradually weakened.

Consumer end

This week, the production of lead-acid battery enterprises was normal, and the weekly operating rate remained at 75.6%, with little change.

Inventory situation

As of the weekend, the total social inventory of lead ingots was 58500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from December 16th and an increase of 600 tons from December 12th. LME inventory decreased by 8300 tons from last Friday to 252500 tons.

comprehensive analysis

Recycled lead enterprises affected by environmental protection have resumed production one after another, but the production in Shandong region is still limited and difficult to fully release. The production of primary lead smelters has increased, but the market supply is still tight due to the low volume of goods received.