Fluorite is the source product of the fluorine chemical industry and also a mineral resource, which is one of the scarce non renewable resources. The National Mineral Resources Plan (2016-2020) includes fluorite in China’s “Strategic Mineral Catalog”, and the “12th Five Year Plan for the Development of China’s Fluorine Chemical Industry” lists fluorite as a “world-class scarce resource similar to rare earths”. China’s fluorite mineral resources play a crucial role in the global fluorite resources. According to the “14th Five Year Plan” for the development of China’s fluorine chemical industry, the fluorite production capacity of various fluorine chemical products in China accounts for 69% of the world’s production capacity, hydrogen fluoride production capacity accounts for 66% of the world’s production capacity, fluorine-containing refrigerants account for 70% of the world’s production capacity, and the total production capacity of the four major fluorine polymers accounts for about 60% of the world’s production and consumption. China has become a major producer and consumer of fluorine chemical products worldwide.
Looking back at the trend of the fluorite market in 2024, the domestic fluorite price has slightly increased, with an average price of 3531.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 3622.5 yuan/ton at the end of the year, an increase of 2.58%. From the fluorite price trend chart, it can be seen that the highest price of fluorite in 2024 appeared in early June, with a maximum price of 3812.5 yuan/ton. The lowest price of fluorite appeared in mid February, with a minimum price of 3343.75 yuan/ton and a maximum amplitude of 14.02%. Overall, the domestic fluorite trend has slightly increased.
The fluorite market in 2024 is mainly divided into four stages: the first stage is in January, when the price trend of fluorite market declines. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, there was an increase in the number of enterprises, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises completed stocking. However, the procurement of fluorite decreased significantly. Southern fluorite enterprises supplied normally, but the poor sales situation led to a decline in the fluorite market price trend in January. In the second phase from February to May, the fluorite market continued to rise. During this period, the tight supply of fluorite became the main factor causing price increases. Domestic fluorite enterprises have a low operating rate, and outdated mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still facing many difficulties. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements, and there is a serious shortage of production in fluorite mines. In addition, some areas have experienced mining accidents during this period, resulting in insufficient production of fluorite mines and a shortage of raw materials, leading to a continuous rise in the fluorite market. The third stage is the third quarter, during which the game intensifies and fluorite slightly falls. The downstream refrigerant production is seriously insufficient, and hydrofluoric acid enterprises have serious resistance to high priced fluorite. In addition, the downstream market has not improved. Although fluorite supply is still tight, the trend of fluorite prices has fallen due to downstream drag, basically equaling the previous stage’s increase. The fourth stage has entered the fourth quarter, and the trend of fluorite market has rebounded. One of the important factors supporting the price increase in this stage is still the tight supply of fluorite ore. Another important factor is the favorable support of refrigeration import and export. This stage is affected by the rise of refrigerant market, and the market of hydrofluoric acid products has improved, which in turn helps to boost the trend of fluorite market. Overall, the fluorite market is expected to experience a slight upward trend in 2024.
As one of the scarce non renewable mineral resources, high prices of fluorite may become the norm in 2025, and the fluorite market is prone to rise but difficult to fall.
Firstly, the tight supply of fluorite raw ore is difficult to break
The global distribution of fluorite is relatively concentrated, with Mexico having reserves of 68 million tons, accounting for 26%, China second with reserves of 49 million tons, accounting for 19%, followed by South Africa, Mongolia, and Spain. The top five countries account for a total of 73%, while Japan, South Korea, India, the European Union, and the United States have almost no reserves of fluorite resources, forming a structural scarcity. China’s fluorite energy storage is less than 20% of the world’s total, but its production accounts for about two-thirds of the world’s total. The phenomenon of excessive exploitation of fluorite resources, extensive production, and uncoordinated development of upstream and downstream industries is prominent. In the face of this situation, the country has imposed strict regulations on fluorite minerals, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements, and some mines are conducting safety hazard inspections. The high-quality fluorite resources that have been discovered in China are gradually decreasing, and the ability to guarantee resources is gradually decreasing. With the increase in the cost of obtaining mining rights, the development cost of fluorite resources is gradually increasing, and the supply of raw fluorite minerals is difficult to improve. In addition, the continuous increase in fluorite development costs for existing mine technology rectification, safety inspections, etc., the shortage of raw materials and the increase in costs have become the main factors supporting the fluorite market.
Secondly, the import volume of fluorite will increase in 2024
In the early years, China mainly relied on exporting crude products such as fluorite to overseas for precision processing into high value-added products, which then flowed back into the country, resulting in a disguised loss of fluorite resources. With the increasingly strict control of fluorite resources in China’s policies, the export volume of fluorite has been declining while the import volume has increased significantly. According to statistics, the export scale of fluorite in China has been continuously decreasing, while the import volume has increased significantly. In addition, China has lowered the import tax rate for fluorite, which has promoted the import of fluorite related products and played a certain role in raising fluorite prices.
Finally, the demand for new types of fluorite continues to develop
After removing traditional uses, fluorite plays an important role in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials. As an important mineral raw material for modern industry, fluorite is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., with the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, the long-term prospects of the fluorite industry chain have been supported to some extent.
Negative constraints still exist
There is still a game in the fluorite market, and the traditional demand for refrigerants in the industry is subject to certain restrictions on production. Refrigerants are affected by quotas, and domestic refrigerant product production remains at a low level of about 30%. The utilization rate of production capacity is not high, which affects hydrofluoric acid enterprises from both sides. There is a strong resistance to high priced fluorite, and the poor downstream hydrofluoric acid market may become the biggest constraint on the fluorite market.
In summary, the national policy has strict requirements for the fluorite industry, positioning fluorite as a “strategic mineral resource” with significant scarcity and strategic significance. The policy direction of adopting protective development is becoming increasingly clear, and the requirements for enterprise scale, technology, and environmental protection are increasing. The position and value center of the fluorite industry chain are expected to be further enhanced. The constraints of traditional market conditions are also a major factor affecting the fluorite market, and the long short game is intensifying. It is expected that high fluorite prices will be the norm in 2025, and the overall market situation is prone to rise but difficult to fall. Overall, fluorite prices will remain above 3200 yuan/ton in 2025, and it is expected that the annual fluorite price will be between 3300-4000 yuan/ton.
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